Ethnic change in the populations of the developed world. British Society for Population Studies, St Andrews 2007 Tuesday 12 September 4.30 D.A. Coleman, ‘own-child’ calculations by M.D. Smith. Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford

Projections of population by origin: a summary of sources.

Netherlands 2005 – Percent of population of foreign origin with and without migration, to show effect of ‘two-generation’ rule.

Norway 2005 – Projection of population of foreign origin, in two major categories.

United States 1999 – 2100, projection by race and Hispanic origin.

Comparison of results of European and US ‘foreign-origin’ projections.

Problems in projecting UK ethnic minority populations Base population from (1971), 1991 and 2001 censuses, Labour Force Survey etc. Ethnic categories variable. No vital registration by ethnic origin (birthplace). Different methods of estimating fertility give different answers. No life tables available yet – national rates used. Migration data weak, not by ethnic origin; migration most important variable but most unstable and most difficult to project. Growing importance of ‘mixed’ populations.

Major sources of data on ethnic minority demographic rates Registration of births and deaths (by birthplace of mother/deceased only, from 1969). General Household Survey ethnic origin, but small sample (13,250), fertility histories from 1984 and period fertility estimates from ‘own-child’ 1970) Labour Force Survey ethnic origin, large sample (qLFS 60,000), no fertility (‘own-child’ method only, from 1965). 1991, 2001 Census components of estimates of fertility and immigration. ONS Longitudinal Study links births to mothers, and deaths, to census data.

Completed Family Size by year of Birth and Ethnic Origin: GHS women born 1929 – N.B. latest cohort incomplete.

The ‘Own-Child’ Method of reconstructing birth-rates in past and current calendar years: Matching and allocation process.

TFR, : Comparing UK LFS own-child estimates with TFR from ONS registration data (total population).

TFR trends of ethnic minority populations

TFR, Indian Women,

TFR, Black-African Women,

Mean Age at Maternity, – postponement may deflate total fertility estimates in some groups.

TFR comparisons, ethnic groups, various sources

Mortality Mortality statistics: for minority groups, ASMRs difficult to compute in many age-groups: small numbers, under-20s deficient. Overall SMRs in E&W slightly higher than average for Asians, Africans; lower for Caribbean. IMR mostly higher. For initial projections England and Wales life tables used, projected to 2051 according to GAD 2004 assumptions. More complete overseas data may help (Norway, US). Large and Ghosh (2006), and Rees (in press) used differential SMRs derived from geographical areas.

Estimated life table for immigrants born in the West Indies, 2001 (q x )

Expectation of life at birth, immigrant groups in England and Wales 2001.

Estimating net ethnic migration IPS TIM Migration data by residence / birthplace turned into ethnic flows with LFS or Census data (Rees in press, on ethnic origin of recent migrants, and Large and Ghosh 2006). Projecting future overall level difficult: GAD assume constant net level to 2074 but at lower level (145k) than actual current ONS figure (185k net in 2005). Recent trends and policy suggest further increase in most components except asylum; initial projections here assume recent average level, or zero, only. Longer term: Eastern European flow may fall with population decline and economic growth; Indian prosperity may promote some return migration; chronic problems in Africa may increase pressure despite asylum restrictions.

Actual net migration trends, GAD projections (1000s) and curve fitted to data. Sources: ONS and GAD

UK population projections , 2004-based, GAD Principal Projection and variant migration assumptions.

Another (semi) official view (Home Office RDS Occasional Paper no 67, 2001).

Spouse migration to the UK (thousands)

Labour migration by work permit, UK

Growth of male South Asian ethnic minority populations of marriageable age, and entry-clearance applications for wives/fiancees

Some UK projections Choices: to constrain or not to constrain? separate components or interactive? Migration numbers or rates? Various approaches for England by Large and Ghosh (2006); Rees (2006 and in press) and Bains (2006) for London. Diversity in fertility rates and trend Diversity in migration levels Mortality assumed to be England and Wales average ‘Mixed’ populations and their generation only considered experimentally.

Projection of UK populations , combined into three major groups. Assumptions: near-convergent fertility, constant migration, mortality as in GAD 2004-based PP.

Projection of UK ethnic minority populations , grouped into ‘non-white’ and ‘white non-British’, to show the importance of migration.

Projection of UK Black populations and ‘Mixed’ (without intergenerational transfers) (1000s).

Projection of UK Asian populations and ‘Other’, (1000s).

Contribution of Mixed Births to Total Births by Ethnic Group of mother, UK,

Ethnic origin of children born compared with ethnic origin of mothers, England (from 2001 Census: source ONS table CO 431)

Projection of Mixed populations, and Caribbean, with and without inter-generational contributions, UK 2001 – 2056 (thousands).

Probabilistic projection : Mixed populations as a proportion of the total UK population

Probabilistic projections of the UK – average results

Probabilistic projection of the UK – population distribution by sex, age and major group in ( green = White, beige = Asian, black = Black, red = Mixed) Source: Coleman and Scherbov 2005.

Migration scenarios – escaping from linear projection Non-British white – reduction expected as economies of East European source countries grow. BUT major new inflow likely if Turkey joins EU with labour migration rights. South Asia – likely return migration of better-skilled to India, but spouse migration likely to continue or increase with growth of ethnic population in UK. Africa – continued asylum pressure likely with population growth, chronic political and economic problems and global warming.; also from other parts of third world. China – Student inflow likely to continue but economic growth and labour shortage may reverse other flows. Political stability not certain. In general asylum flows have fallen regardless of policy in receiving countries. Illegal immigration and overstaying may already be very high, likely to increase in absence of substantial reform of control and statistics. Amnesty would make very large transient impact. Very long term trend probably towards reduction of most forms of migration. UK Immigration policy likely to become slightly more restrictive with present government, maybe more so if government changes.

Conclusions Projections of population by ethnic origin in UK are possible but with difficulty. Most sensitive and unpredictable variable is migration, not fertility or mortality. Substantial growth, and re-alignment of relative size, of some groups is almost inevitable. ‘Mixed’ groups gaining in importance – multiple origins may eventually make ethnic categories less meaningful. Next steps to include migration scenarios.