1. Éric Caron Malenfant, André Lebel, Laurent Martel Lisbon, April 2010
New projections of the ethnocultural composition of the Canadian population with the Demosim microsimulation model
Éric Caron Malenfant, André Lebel, Laurent Martel
Lisbon, April 2010

2. Context
Rapid increase in the ethnocultural diversity observed through last censuses
Immigrants and diversity highly concentrated in some large urban areas of Canada
Impacts on policy planning led, in 2005, to the publication of Population projections of visible minority groups in Canada,

3. Goal of the project
In 2007, new projections requested by three federal departments responsible of programs related to
Employment Equity
Multiculturalism
Labour market integration
Fight against racism and discrimination
Goal : provide an overview of what could be the ethnocultural composition of the Canadian population in 2031

4. Outline
General overview of Demosim, the microsimulation model used for the projections
Main projection results related to the future ethnocultural diversity of Canada

5. Overview of DemoSim : contents and functioning

6. The Demosim model
It is a microsimulation population projection model in which
individuals are projected one by one
each event occurs at the individual level
Microsimulation allows to project a large number of characteristics an to use them as determinants of events

7. Some specificities of DemoSim
Starts with the complete 2006 census microdata base (20% sample)
Model is at the individual level (no family nor household level)
Is built to integrate assumptions on components of population change
Is conceived to project the demographic and ethnocultural composition of the population
Is programmed with MODGEN

8. Contents of Demosim Main characteristics included in the model:
Place of residence (33 metropolitan areas, provinces, on-off Indian reserves)
Age
Sex
Generation status : 1st (foreign-born), 2nd (children of immigrants), 3rd or more
Place of birth
Religious denomination
Visible minority group
Mother tongue
Highest level of schooling
Labour force participation
Aboriginal identity
Registered Indian Status
Auxiliary variables are also included

9. Modules of Demosim Main events simulated :
Births, including intergenerational transfers
Deaths
Internal migration
Immigration
Emigration
Change of highest level of schooling
Change in marital status
Change of religion over the life cycle
Change in labour force participation
Departure of children from parental home
Each event is generated through a module in Demosim

10. Modules of Demosim Main data sources : Censuses of population
Population estimates
Administrative data
Vital statistics
Longitudinal Administrative Database
Citizenship and Immigration Data
Survey data
General Social Surveys (GSS)
Ethnic diversity survey (EDS)
Labour force survey (LFS)

11. Scenarios
The results presented here come essentially from the medium growth scenario :
TFR = 1.7
Immigration level = 7.5 immigrants / 1000 inhabitants
Composition of immigration based on
Life expectancy reached in 2031 : females = 86.6; males=83.1
Internal migration : based on 1996, 2001 and 2006 censuses

12. Ethnocultural composition of Canada from 2006 to 2031 : key findings

13. Towards a high proportion of foreign-born persons in Canada
Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

14. From an European to an Asian foreign-born population
Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

15. Rapid increase of the proportion of people belonging to visible minority groups among the Canadian-born (reference scenario)
Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

16. Increasing diversity among the population of Canada
Allophones
Foreign Born
Visible Minorities
Non-Christian Religions
Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

17. South Asian and Chinese populations could more than double in size between 2006 and 2031
Visible minority groups
2006
2031
Medium scenario
in thousands
percentage
Total
32,522
100.0
42,078
Total - Visible minority
5,285
16.3
12,855
30.6
Chinese
1,269
3.9
2,714
6.4
South Asian
1,320
4.1
3,640
8.7
Black
815
2.5
1,809
4.3
Filipino
427
1.3
1,020
2.4
Latin American
317
1.0
733
1.7
Southeast Asian
250
0.8
449
1.1
Arab
276
930
2.2
West Asian
164
0.5
523
1.2
Korean
148
407
Japanese 85
0.3
142
Other visible minorities
213
0.7
489
Rest of the population
27,237
83.7
29,222
69.4
Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

18. Diversity mostly concentrated among a few CMAs in Canada (proportion of people belonging to visible minority groups)
Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

19. Toronto-Vancouver-Montréal: different ethnocultural portrait in 2031%
Visible minority groups by 2031 (reference scenario) in Toronto, Vancouver and Montréal
Source : Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031

20. Conclusion Population diversity is expected to :
Continue to increase until 2031 in Canada
To increase within the Canadian-born population
To remain concentrated geographivally

21. To know more about the projections or Demosim
See on the Statistics Canada’s web site – Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (catalogue number X)
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Demography Division Clients Service :