World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Severe Weather Forecasting and Disaster risk reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP) REGIONAL SUBPROJECT RA V.

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Presentation transcript:

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Severe Weather Forecasting and Disaster risk reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP) REGIONAL SUBPROJECT RA V Steve Ready

South Pacific ‘Window’ Solomon Islands Samoa Vanuatu Fiji 150 O E to 150 O W, 2 O N to 25(30) O S Tonga Niue Cook Islands Tuvalu Kiribati

South Pacific window

South Pacific Guidance chart produced by RSMC Wellington Before Yasi Was named!

UKMO page on MetConnect Pacific

UKMO TC data  Ensemble tracks  Strike probabilities  Deterministic v Ensemble mean TC (and non-TC)Tracks- static image TC Animated – strike probabilities: TC passing within 300km TC Genesis probabilities – 10x10° (bar graphs) TC probabilities – 10x10° (bar graphs)

Southerly swell Peak around 3m 15s Christmas Island (Just north of Equator near 158 ⁰West)

ECMWF – tropical cyclone data  Lagrangian Meteogram - EPS 7°x 7° box centred on TC  Strike probability map - 120km radius  Cyclone observed track  Deterministic forecast verification

Strike probability for Wilma

ECMWF on TC Wilma

NCEP

RSMC Darwin ACCESS-TC and vortex Tracking available by 2011/2012 cyclone season

South Pacific Guidance chart during TC Wilma Jan 2011

Links between SWFDDP and GIFS-TIGGE

Issues for SWFDDP Poor internet connectivity - l ow internet bandwidth, downloading quota Lack of qualified WMO meteorologists in South Pacific Dependency - 5 of 9 participating countries in SWFDDP rely on RSMC for some or all their forecasting & warning requirements

Snowman around Wellington on August 2011

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