Texas State Agency Business Administrators Association June 5, 2014 San Marcos, Texas Texas Population Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Growing States, Population* 2010 Population* Numerical Change Percent Change United States 281,421,906308,745,53827,323,6329.7% Texas 20,851,82025,145,5614,293, % California 33,871,64837,253,9563,382, % Florida 15,982,37818,801,3102,818, % Georgia 8,186,4539,687,6531,501, % North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486, % Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261, % Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Count. 65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population

Percent Change Due to Y ear* Population Numerical Change Annual Percent Change Natural Increase Net Migration 19507,711, ,579,6771,868, ,196,7301,617, ,229,1913,032, ,986,5102,757, ,851,8203,865, ,145,5614,293, ,060, , ,448,193387, * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1 st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio. Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas,

Total Estimated Population by County, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates Along and east of I-35: 40% of land 86% of population 92% of population growth ( )

Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage. 96 counties lost population over the two year period Of counties that lost population 90% had net out migration 47% had natural decline

The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, Percent Increase 1.Midland, Texas4.6 2.Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla The Villages, Fla Odessa, Texas3.4 6.Jacksonville, N.C Austin-Round Rock, Texas3.0 8.Casper, Wyo Columbus, Ga.-Ala Manhattan, Kan.2.8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, Numeric Increase 1.Harris, Texas80,005 2.Los Angeles, Calif.73,764 3.Maricopa, Ariz.73,644 4.Dallas, Texas45,827 5.San Diego, Calif.38,880 6.King, Wash.35,838 7.Travis, Texas34,381 8.Orange, Calif.34,017 9.Tarrant, Texas32, Clark, Nev.32,833 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013

Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in Texas, millions Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed,

9 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Economic Indicators, February 2014

Unemployment rate (percent) for Texas and the United States, Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Local area Unemployment Statistics Program, 2014.

Percentage of Families Whose Income in the Past 12 Months is Below the Poverty Level, Texas Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year samples,

Household Income and Benefits, Texas, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year samples,

Median Household Income (dollars), Texas, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year sample,

Outstanding State Debt for 10 Most Populous States, Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Note: Texas debt outstanding from the Census Bureau differs from that reported by the Texas Bond Review Board. Population figures are 2013 Census estimates.

State of Texas Debt Per Capita Outstanding at Fiscal Year End: 10-Year Trend 15 Sources: Texas Bond Review Board, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Some debt issued before 2006 may not be reflected. Reflects debt in 2013 dollars divided by estimated population in the relevant year. Texas debt outstanding from the Texas Bond Review Board differs from that reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Some of this debt may be self-supporting, that is, paid in whole or in part with dedicated non-tax revenue, even when backed by a pledge of general revenue

16

17

18

19

Percent of Population Born in Texas, Counties, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample,

Percent of Population that is Foreign Born, Texas Counties, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample,

Numeric change in Hispanic population, by county, Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Counts

Percent Hispanic, Texas Counties, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample,

Numeric change in Asian population, by county, Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Counts

Percent of the population age 5 and over that speaks Spanish at home and speaks English less than very well, Texas Counties, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample,

Percent of the population age 5 and over that speaks a language other than English at home, Texas Counties, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample,

Percent of Households with at Least One Person Over the Age of 64 Years, Texas Counties, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample,

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census count

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Projected Population Growth in Texas, Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections, Migration Scenario

Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011 Level of Educational Attainment Percent of persons aged 25 years and older State Ranking High school diploma or equivalency or greater 81.1%48/49/50 (tied with CA and MS) Bachelors or greater26.4%29 35 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.

Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer. Less Than High School College and Greater

Trends in Educational Attainment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample,

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 38 These should be going DOWNThese should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Demographics and Destiny 39

Contact Office: (512) or (210) Internet: 40 Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.