1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey ( ) : MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Reader Emeritus in Environmental Science, University of East Anglia Glenalmond College 7 th February 2013 A Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future: The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and Cost of our Future Energy Supplies

2 Increasing Occurrence of Drought

3 Increasing Occurrence of Flood

Is Global Warming natural or man-made? Natural causes Earths Orbit Sunspot Activity Volcanic Eruptions Etc. Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960 Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period. BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

5 Arctic Sea Ice Cover Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km Red line outlines extent for reference Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km a loss of 51% in 33 years Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum Source

Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport. 6 Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions. FuelApprox emission factor Comments Coal900 – 1000g Depending on grade and efficiency of power station Gas400 – 430g Assuming CCGT – lower value for Yarmouth as it is one of most efficient in Europe Nuclear5 – 10gDepending on reactor type Renewables~ 0For wind, PV, hydro Overall UK~530g Varies on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix Embedded carbon from construction is similar for most technologies e.g. wind, nuclear, coal solar PV ~ is somewhat higher gas generation ~ a little less..

7 Import Gap Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK Gas Production and Demand in UK Only 50% now provided by UK sources. Warning issued on 17 th April 2012 that over-reliance on Norway and imported LNG from Qatar will lead to price rises by end of year Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas. UK no longer self sufficient in gas Langeled Line to Norway Oil reaches $130 a barrel Severe Cold Spells

8 What are causes of price rises in recent years? Since 2004 Electricity Bills for the average household have risen from ~ £230 to around ~£440 a rise of 90% * Support for renewables in 2011 was £1.285 billion pounds. - or an increase of 0.39 p/kWh in retail price of electricity Wholsesale prices have risen from 2p to 4.5 p/kWh over period because of increases in fossil fuel prices. Renewables are only a very small reason for rise in Electricity Bills ~ only 8.7% of the 225% rise in wholesale prices The main causes are increasing dependence on imported gas and profits?? by utility companies?? Support for Renewables accounts for <10% of rise in bills By 2020 wholesale prices are likely to rise significantly because of increasing dependence on imported gas. * Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website

Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then 9 Options for Electricity Generation in Non-Renewable Methods Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Energy Review th May 2011 (*) Gas CCGT % (at present %) Available now (but gas is running out) ~2p + 8.0p [5 - 11] nuclear fission (long term) % (France 80%) - (currently 18% and falling) new inherently safe designs - some development needed p 7.75p [ ] nuclear fusionunavailable not available until 2040 at earliest not until 2050 for significant impact "Clean Coal" Coal currently ~40% but scheduled to fall Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration p [ ]p - unlikely before 2025 * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2009 Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after ?

10 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Future prices from * Renewable Energy Review – 9 th May 2011 Climate Change Committee 1.5MW Turbine At peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes – operating for 12 years On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p

11 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich Climate Change Committee (9 th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount Off Shore Wind % some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~ p 12.5p +/- 2.5

12 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Off Shore Wind % some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~ p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential p 11p for <2MW projects

13 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Off Shore Wind % some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~ p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential p 11p for <2MW projects Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW. Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly 15+ p 25p +/ p (2012 projection)

14 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Off Shore Wind % some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~ p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly 15+ p 25p +/-8 Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste. To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas ??5% available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification p p depending on technology

15 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind % available but costly ~ p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW may be MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before p 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave

16 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind % available but costly ~ p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Streamn currently < 10 MW may be MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before p 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave

17 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind % available but costly ~ p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW may be MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before p 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009 Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs In Orkney – Churchill Barriers Output ~ GWh per annum - Sufficient for houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south. Would save tonnes of CO 2 Tidal Barrages5 - 15% technology available but unlikely for Construction time ~10 years. In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5

18 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind ~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind % available but costly ~ p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential p 11p for <2MW Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW ?? MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before p 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Tidal Barrages5 - 15% In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5 Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

19 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind ~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind % available but costly ~ p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential p 11p for <2MW Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW ?? MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before p 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Tidal Barrages5 - 15% In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5 Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

20 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics are mature but much more expensive than on shore wind. Tidal and wave are not options for next years except as demonstration projects. [technically immature ] If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee [9 th May 2011] If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

21 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

22 Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by Existing Coal Existing Nuclear Oil 22 Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by Existing Coal UK Gas Imported Gas New Nuclear New Coal Existing Nuclear Other Renewables Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Oil 1 new nuclear station completed each year after new coal station with CCS each year after million homes fitted with PV each year from % of homes fitted by GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by No electric cars or heat pumps Version suitable for Office 2003, 2007 & 2010

23 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797) Raising Awareness

24 Raising Awareness A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances up to kWh a year balloons. (up to £15 a year) A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gaoan No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

25 Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times. Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times Raising Awareness

Good Management at UEA has reduced Energy Requirements in a low energy by over 50% Space Heating Consumption reduced by 57% kWh/ 26

27 Pilot Lights £9 per week Pilot lights off Pilot Lights turned off during week Awareness in the Local Community Awareness Raising and Good Record Keeping results in significant savings St Pauls Church, Tuckswood Heated by 3 warm air heaters New Strategy: pilot lights off throughout summer and used strategically in winter resulted in an annual saving of: 5400 kWh of gas; 1030 kg of CO 2 ; and a monetary saving of £260 Or a percentage saving of 38%

Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia Consumption rose to nearly double level of early Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant. Extra fuel cost £ per annum ~£1000 to repair fault Additional CO 2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes. Low Energy Lighting Installed 28

29 Sustainable Options for the future? Energy Generation Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels and schools – generally less suitable for other businesses Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years). The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get! Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2012 Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer Approximate annual estimate of generation = installed capacity * 8760 * hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%

30 Options available for the Householder Energy Generation Micro Wind - roof mounted turbines Mini Wind - mast mounted turbines – can be good as long as well clear of buildings, trees, etc – can be a good option for farms Building Mounted - ~ 1kW machines ~ generally poor performance because of turbulence except in a few locations Not generally recommended Mast mounted away from buildings - 6kW Potential output 6000 – kWh depending on location Vertical Axis machine – better in turbulence

31 How Variable is Wind Energy? 70% of Wind Output is now Visible to National Grid Predictions are made 2 days and 1 day in advance and demonstrate a correlation comparable with the prediction of demand variations. Prediction made mid-afternoon for next 48 hours Prediction made 1 day later and typically for output 24 hours in advance Actual Output in last week of January 2012

32 How Variable is Wind Energy? Over 8700 Data points covering whole of 2012 Coefficient of Correlation 0.96

33 Alternative Strategies for Financing Consumer purchases system and benefits from both reduction in imported electricity and Feed In Tariff – suitable for both domestic and commercial properties for those who are capital rich but income poor. Company pays for and installs system and claims the Feed In Tariff – the owner of land benefits from reduced energy bills – for those with limited capital and less concerned with income. Schemes exist for small wind – e.g. Windcrop who offer 5kW turbines which are less affected by planning issues Domestic/community PV up to 50kW Images courtesy of WindCrop Honningham Thorpe, Norfolk

34 Options available for Communities/Householders Energy Generation Onshore Wind - sensible for community schemes – e.g. Orkney, Germany, Denmark etc – the cheapest form of renewable energy Biomass boilers - can be sensible but need a reliable fuel supply. In cost terms with the proposed Renewable Heat Incentive there are attractions for homes / buildings heated by oil or electricity but not, at present, mains gas. Most convenient if running on pellets Cheaper with wood chip but more difficult to automate

35 Ground Source: Heat Pumps ~ twice floor area of building is required for heat collection. Best performance with under floor heating to ensure difference between heat supply and source temperature is as low as possible. Zones of building can be controlled via a manifold Options available for heating buildings– Heat Pumps

36 Heat pumps run off electricity For a well designed ground source heat pump system: Typically 3.5 – 4 as much heat is produced as electricity consumed – the Coefficient of Performance (COP). If a buffer tank is included in system, then off peak electricity can be used to heat store overnight – minimising use of full rate electricity. Air source heat pumps require external fan system, and are not as efficient as air temperature is low when most heat is needed. Retro fitting with existing radiators will lead to poor COP, but could be improved by fitting double radiators and/or a buffer tank Options available for the Householder – Heat PumpsOptions available for heating buildings– Heat Pumps

37 Micro CHP Replaces normal boiler Provides heat and electricity – would normally run on gas Currently there are incentives under the Feed In Tariff. Options available for heating buildings– CHP Pumps To be eligible to claim for any Incentive the installation must be installed by a registered MCS installer. Certificate of installation must be presented at time of registration. All microgeneration Installations such as solar, wind, biomass, heat pumps, CHP must be MCS Accredited

billion people 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.03 billion people Products : 478 Mtonnes CO 2 increase in 3 years Aid & Education The Unbalanced Triangular Trade Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO 2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years Water issues are equally important. Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ tonnes of water Ethical Issues of International Trade

Conclusions: A Strategy for Future Sustainable Energy Supply Will require: Effective Awareness and Energy Management; Improved Technology making better use of existing energy; Low Carbon Energy Supply – including: –Cost effective and technically mature renewables –Nuclear (?) –Carbon Capture and Sequestration – but this will not be available until mid 2020s on scale required if then. Onshore Wind (??? Some biomass) are the most cost effective solution for low carbon energy until at least 2020 Is becoming increasingly competitive with gas and is on track to become one of the cheapest options by A coherent and rational approach to planning for new energy systems based on evidence rather than emotion. 39

Conclusions and Reflections (1) Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important, particularly in the UK. Energy costs are rising mostly from increasing scarcity of traditional fossil fuels (only slightly from current support for renewables) Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity and cost increases more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy coupled with small changes in behaviour It is as much about the individuals response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. or do we ignore these warnings? 40

41 Lao Tzu ( BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher FINALLY "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." This presentation is available at Conclusions and Reflections

42

43 Supplementary slides not given in actual presentation at Glenalmond

Winter: October – March: Summer: April to September Compared to 1960 – in 2010, –13.1% less heating needed –And 106% more cooling. Temperature changes: Evidence in East Anglia Temperature rise in East Anglia over last 50 years is unequivocal Despite particular cold December 2010 in UK – worldwide it was 1 st /2 nd hottest ever

Data from BMREPORTS Changes in output over 30 minute period for a 12 month period Wind Max: 914 MW Min: – 1051 MW StDev : 37.8 MW Nuclear Max: 1630 MW Min: MW StDev: 39.9MW How Variable is Wind Energy? 45 It is often argued that Wind Energy is unpredictable? A single unscheduled trip from Sizewell B Power station has much more impact than variations in wind output.

46 Seeking Effective Low Carbon Solutions for Energy Supply Small scale solar PV under the Feed in Tariff ~ £700+ per tonne CO 2 saved Large Scale On-shore wind under Renewable obligation ~ £90+ per tonne CO 2 saved MWh on shore wind generated at an extra cost of £265.4M Total generated = MWh: Effective subsidy = 0.07p / kWh ~ 0.6% on domestic bills or ~2% with all renewables considered Compared to rises of 20%+ mostly from increases in fossil fuels Subsidy for onshore wind is being cut by 10% in near future Cavity Insulation ~ <<£20 per tonne CO 2 saved There will be an increased demand for electricity in a future which promotes conservation of energy! - heat pumps – electric vehicles Effective Energy Management can often be cost negative in terms of CO 2 saved. An effective strategy will focus on most cost effective solutions both in the short term and long term. Data from Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2011