1. CRed carbon reduction Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Energy Futures Hard Choices Ahead 11 th October 2005

2. Hard Choice Ahead Evidence of Climate Change Energy Options for the Future Hard Choices Ahead Future carbon dioxide emissions Some conservation issues A way forward Conclusions

3. Future Global Warming Rates

4. Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Change in precipitation 1961-2001

5. 1979 2003 Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region –Nasa satellite imagery Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years

6. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002 Difficult Choices Ahead 20032004 2005

7. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

8. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol?

9. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

10. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

11. Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

12. Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

13. Our Choices: They are difficult BETTA has to cope with the loss of Sizewell B through a reactor trip. BETTA also has to cope with sudden changes in demand (up to 2.5 times Sizewell B) in a matter of minutes e.g. from TV scheduling. Experience form Denmark and Germany normal maximum change in output in any one hour is no more than 18% on one occasion in a year. Remote power stations involve 8.5% trnamission losses. Local Wind/ Biomass/ Microgeneration avoid these losses Large Developments of Renewable generation at periphery of country >> mean more pylon lines Renewable Energy: Isn’t Energy from Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply We must not get drawn into a single issue debate – a rational debate covering all the alternatives is needed. Available Renewables: Nuclear: Conservation

14. Historic and Future Demand for Electricity Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

15. Electricity Options for the Future Low Growth Scenario Capped at 420 TWh 33% CO 2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 62% CO 2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 68 % increase in gas consumption ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002 Mix option: 6 new nuclear plant by 2025 Mix option: 11% increase in gas consumption (cf 2002) High Growth Scenario Business as Usual 0.3 % CO 2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 54% CO 2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 257% increase in gas consumption ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002 25% Renewables by 2025 20000 MW Wind 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.

16. Government Response Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO 2 emissions by 2050 Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) “There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’ - Energy White Paper: February 2003

17. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 36 million for Greater London On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

18. Some facts: A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging up to 20 kg CO 2 a year Standby on television > 60 kg per year Filling up with petrol (~40 litres ~£37 for a full tank) --------- 90 kg of CO 2 (5% of one balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles

19. Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity Involve the local Community

20. Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Need to move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. Otherwise Nuclear? Can we avoid new Nuclear? Yes: but only if expansion of Renewables is at a greater rate than even Government Targets and everyone embraces Energy Conservation Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.

21. Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room Conclusions Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."