Environmental Change Institute October 20, 2015 The role of energy demand in a low carbon future Nick Eyre Environmental Change Institute

World Primary Energy Demand

How can we decarbonise an economy? In any economy Carbon emissions, C ≡ (C/E) x (E/GDP) x GDP where C = carbon emissions, and E = energy use There are therefore only two ways to decarbonise a growing economy  Reduce the ‘carbon ratio’, C/E by changing energy sources  Reduce the ‘energy ratio’ by improving energy efficiency

How are we doing in the UK?

What should this tell us?  UK carbon targets are very tough – 75% reduction by 2050 (whilst the economy grows by >100%)  To deliver such a big change, we will need to improve the ‘energy ratio’ and the ‘carbon ratio’  Historically we have done a lot better at improving the energy ratio than the carbon ratio  The media focus on ‘supply side’ issues (nuclear, carbon sequestration, renewables, shale gas etc) is unbalanced  There is also a need to think about ‘how we use energy’.

Quantifying demand reduction The “Low Energy Lifestyles” project The research project  UK Energy Research Centre project “Energy 2050”  One scenarios looking at low carbon, resilient energy futures for the UK.  Published by Earthscan The team:  Nick Eyre, Christian Brand, Russell Layberry (Oxford)  Jillian Anable (Aberdeen)  Neil Strachan (University College, London)

What are lifestyles? A precise definition is difficult.... but we know one when we see it A high energy lifestyle

The low energy lifestyle scenario Social change leads to a culture in which lower energy use is more socially acceptable, leading to:  greater use of green technologies in buildings and personal transport..  and different behavioural patterns in their use It needs to be supported by  public policy – taxes, incentives, regulations etc  and new infrastructure – smart grids, heat networks, electric mass transit

Household energy use assumptions Returns to mid-1990s levels Usage stabilises Universal Biomass, CHP and heat pumps Widespread

Household sector: impacts on heating

Transport energy use assumptions Distance travelled Modal choice Vehicle choice Reduced by 21% Car use falls from 67% to 38% Cycling rises from 1% to 13% Electric vehicles dominant Accessibility Localism Slower speeds Compact cities Car-free zones Car clubs ICT Tele-working Tele-shopping Less air travel

Transport sector: impacts on fuel demand

Conclusions: overall impacts Lifestyle change can produce energy technology choice and behaviour change, leading to:  A reduction in energy demand in homes and transport of ~50% by 2050  A reduction in national energy use and carbon emissions of ~30% by 2050  A reduction in the cost of delivering a low carbon energy system by ~£70 billion/year  Less use of gas and oil, and therefore better energy security