What does a national recession mean for Roanoke? 26 January 2009 Roanoke, Virginia Presented by Jon Roberts TIP Strategies, Inc. Austin, Texas
Agenda Who is TIP? The national picture – how bad is bad? What’s right about Roanoke? The regional response and the federal agenda Discussion
Who is TIP?
Strategic Planning Industry Cluster Analysis Workforce Development Entrepreneurship Site Selection & Analysis Defense Communities TIP Strategies
TIP framework Focus on Economic Vitality
US Canada UK Netherlands TIP project footprint
So why are you here?
The National Picture
Demographic and Industry Trends
us | a labor crisis approaches SOURCES: TIP Strategies; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
us | private sector employment
Trend: U.S. Manufacturing Employment
SOURCES: US Bureau Labor Statistics; Economy.com US | manufacturing vs. services
The shock of recent events Housing sector decline Energy price volatility Financial crisis (credit & liquidity) Currency fluctuations
Economic effects Rising unemployment (while talent availability declines) Retail sector contraction Continuing decline in housing Automotive sector consolidation & retrenchment Inability of businesses to expand Declining IPOs mean less venture investment Overall reduction in business start-ups Tightening credit availability for municipalities Reduction in exports due to weak European markets
Recessionary Trends Based on employment gain and loss, real estate trends, income
Net Change in Jobs, Nov Nov 2008 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via Moody’s Analytics Roanoke
Percent Change in Jobs, Nov Nov 2008 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via Moody’s Analytics Roanoke
Stocks Fall to 7,500 – Have we Reached Bottom? April 1, 2009
Retail sales stubbornly refuse to rebound: 250,000 stores shuttered Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Unemployment Rate Doubles Over Last Year – August 8, 2009 Jobless Rate Doubles to 10.2% : March 2008 – March 2009
What’s Right about Roanoke?
Rapid population growth forecasted
Attractive to retirees
Roanoke is a destination
Close links to Lynchburg & Blacksburg
Job base is well-diversified
Most key sectors are growing
2004 – 2006 strong years for key sectors
Major Area Employers 1 Carilion Clinic 2 Roanoke City Public Schools 3 Roanoke County Public Schools 4 Commonwealth of Virginia 5 City of Roanoke 6 Kroger 7 Wachovia 8 Norfolk Southern 9 Wal-Mart Stores 10 Veterans Administration Hospital 11 Franklin County Public Schools 12 Advance Auto Parts 13 United States Government 14 Allstate 15 Lewis-Gale Medical Center 16 M W Manufacturers Inc 17 Roanoke County, VA 18 United Parcel Service 19 Yokohama Tire Corp 20 Manpower Temporary Services
What’s right about Roanoke? talent, innovation, place TALENT why it matters: –linked to income growth generally –correlation to new business formation how you measure it: –educational attainment –occupational composition
What’s right about Roanoke? talent, innovation, place INNOVATION why it matters: –linked to profitability –promotes competitiveness how you measure it: –R&D investment –Patents, contracts, alliances
What’s right about Roanoke? talent, innovation, place PLACE why it matters: –linked to school quality, public safety, connectivity –demonstrates civic commitment how you measure it: –property values & appreciation rates –Rebecca Ryan’s seven indices –“from inside and outside”
Regional Responses
Risks and liabilities Declining wealth of retirees Over-reliance on non-primary employment Weak IT and professional service sector Unfocused marketing
What does a forward-looking community do in a recession? retain and consolidate position secure federally-funded infrastructure projects launch sustainability initiatives
Discussion
7000 N. MoPac, Ste. 305 Austin, TX tel fax Thank You TIP Strategies, Inc.