CSI: Climate Status Investigations Teacher Training Institute April 16-21, 2008 Climate Change 101

Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies…

Everything I know about climate change I learned at the movies…

Presentation Outline The Greenhouse Effect Where Does Our Energy Come From? Emissions Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes Future Trends

Source: EPA Global Warming site.

CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2OCF 4 SF 6 Global Warming Potential (GWP) ,50023,900 Atmospheric Lifetime (years) >50,0003,200 Pre-industrial Concentration (ppm) Atmospheric Concentration (ppm) Rate of Concentration Change (ppm/yr) 1, (ppt/yr) 0.23 (ppt/yr) Effects of Different Greenhouse Gases Source: US EPA: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports

CONVERSION CHARTS 1 unit carbon (C) = or 44/12 units carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) 1 unit CO 2 = or 12/44 units C Converting methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to equivalent CO 2 and C units: Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO 2 = 1 GWP of CH 4 = 21 (over 100-year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report) GWP of N 2 O = 310 (over 100-year time period -- IPCC Third Assessment Report) EXAMPLE: (100 metric tons of N 2 O)x(310) = 31,000 metric tons of CO 2 Equivalents x 12/44 = 8,454 metric tons of Carbon Equivalents x 2204/2000 = 9,316 short tons C Converting mass units (e.g., short tons, metric tons, teragrams) 1 metric ton (tonne) = 1,000 kilograms (kg) = 2,204 lbs 1 short ton = metric tons = 2,000 lbs 1 Teragram (Tg) = grams = 1 million (10 6 ) metric tons 1 Gigaton (Gt) = 1 Petagram (Pg) = grams = 1 billion (10 9 ) metric tons

Presentation Outline The Greenhouse Effect Where Does Our Energy Come From? Emissions Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes Future Trends

Fossil Fuels World’s Dominant Energy Source United States (2005) 100 QBtu/yr (1.06e14 MJ) 86% Fossil Energy World (2005) 462 Quads/yr (4.87e14 MJ) 86% Fossil Energy World Data from International Energy Outlook U.S. Data from Annual Energy Outlook Coal 26% Coal 26% Oil 37% Gas 23% Nuclear 6% Gas 23% Nuclear 8% Oil 41% Hydro 3% Other renewable (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass) 3% Renewables 8% Coal 23% Coal 23%

Renewables 6% 100 Quads Fossil fuels provide 86% of energy Quads By 2030, reliance on fossil fuels remains stable at 86% Coal 23% Nuclear 8% Renewables 6% Oil 41% Gas 23% Coal 26% Nuclear 7% Oil 40% Gas 20% + 31% Source: AEO 2007 Fossil Energy - America’s Energy Foundation

6.3 Quads Quads + 118% Source: AEO 2008 Renewable Energy Consumption – Growing Fast, But From a Small Base

Presentation Outline The Greenhouse Effect Where Does Our Energy Come From? Emissions Correlation with Monitored Climate Changes Future Trends

All Fossil Fuels & Energy Sectors Contribute CO 2 Emissions Industry 29% Industry 29% Commercial 18% Commercial 18% Residential 21% Transportation 32% Transportation 32% Oil 44% Oil 44% Coal 36% Coal 36% Natural Gas 20% AEO2007 United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions (By Source & Sector)

CO 2 & CH 4 - The Primary GHG Contributors Methane 9% Nitrous Oxide 5% HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 2% CO 2 from Energy 83% Other CO 2 2% “EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U.S.: 2005” United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Equivalent Global Warming Basis)

World Carbon Dioxide Emissions By Region, (Million Metric Tons of C Equivalent) Carbon Intensity By Region, (Metric Tons of C Equivalent per Million $1997) …But Carbon Dioxide Emissions are Growing Carbon Intensity is Falling…

Different Concentration Levels are Possible Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

Stabilization Requires a Budget ppm Billion tonnes Carbon ( ) Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

The Budget is Disappearing Cumulative carbon emissions (GtC) Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization Spent Remaining Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

Presentation Outline The Greenhouse Effect Where Does Our Energy Come From? Emissions Correlation with Monitored Climate Changes Future Trends

Atmospheric Concentrations are Rising…

CO 2 Concentrations On The Rise (~280 ppm to 370 ppm over last 100 years) Temperature Change from Present ( o C) Time Before Present (kyr) CO 2 Concentration (ppmv)  T atm (Vostok) CO 2 (Vostok)

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -

Presentation Outline The Greenhouse Effect Where Does Our Energy Come From? Emissions Correlation w/Monitored Climate Changes Future Trends

Possible harbingers… Rising sea levels Spreading disease Earlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and population changes Coral reef bleaching Permafrost melting Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding Droughts and fires

Source: and National Climatic Data Center, NOAAhttp:// Permafrost and polar ice are melting…

Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA Precipitation is erratic

Significant Climate Anomalies Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA