RAINS becomes GAINS and other “future” stories TFIEP Workshop on Emission Projections Thessaloniki, Greece, October, 2006 Zbigniew Klimont EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)

Content Issues of concern RAINS becomes GAINS New RAINS/GAINS agricultural module EDGAR – RAINS/GAINS collaboration Other “futures”

Issues of concern More important links between pollutants and GHG gases – implications for emission projections and impact assessment…consequently for policy discussion Potentially conflicting legislation (primarily cross-media issues) The more traditional concerns that remain concerns: –Technology parameters –Technology penetration –Limits to technology –Activity data projections –Spatial resolution –Temporal resolution

Links between pollutants built in PM – NO x – NMVOC – NH 3 : common control strategy for mobile sources PM – NMVOC – CH 4 – CO: common control strategy for residential sources N 2 O – CH 4 – NH 3 – NO 3 – N 2 : under development NO x – NH 3 : stationary combustion - emissions from SCR and SNCR equipped installation NO x – SF 6 – HFC – CO 2 : The same car fleet characteristics used

A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem extended towards radiative forcing

The GAINS model: The RAINS multi-pollutant/ multi-effect framework extended to GHGs PMSO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 Health impacts: PM  O 3  Vegetation damage: O 3  Acidification  Eutrophication  Economic synergies between emission control measures Multiple benefits PMSO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O PFCs HFCs SF 6 Health impacts: PM  O 3  Vegetation damage: O 3  Acidification  Eutrophication  Radiative forcing: - direct  - via aerosols  - via OH  Physical interactions

The model: GAINS Extension of RAINS to include six Kyoto gases (CO2, CH4, N20, HFC, PFC, SF6) and information about relevant abatement measures and their costs Optimal choice of emission reduction measures to meet air quality objectives simultaneously with targets on Kyoto greenhouse gases Cost curves for all six gases for the period 2000 to 2030 GAINS will be able to explore cost-effectiveness of structural changes in the energy system Currently applied to Europe but application for Asia is a high priority

Emission control options considered in GAINS with country/region-specific application potentials and costs Air pollutants : ~1500 options for SO 2, NO x, VOC, NH 3, PM CO 2 : 162 options for power plants, transport, industry, domestic CH 4 : 28 options for the gas sector, waste management, enteric fermentation, manure management, coal mines, rice paddies N 2 O : 18 options for arable land and grassland, industry, combustion, health care, waste treatment F-gases : 22 options for refrigeration, mobile and stationary air conditioning, HCFC22 production, primary aluminum production, semiconductor industry and other sectors

The sub-model to calculate gaseous emission, runoff and leaching in a consequent way using the mass balance approach: A mathematical framework to model the flow of: –Nitrogen (NH 3, N 2 O, NO x, N 2 emissions) –Volatile solids (CH 4 emission) Moreover: –Nitrogen is split up into TAN (total ammoniacal nitrogen), which is the active part that gives rise to the gaseous emissions, runoff and leaching and an inactive part N org (organic nitrogen) Building new agricultural module of RAINS/GAINS [1]

The model is set-up to incorporate new emission processes, such as emission from e.g. –Yards (e.g., hard-standings or exercising, feeding yards) –Different stages of biogas plants –Direct spread (from housing directly to the field) –Drying cow dung (e.g. India) Moreover it will: –Include NO 3 - leaching and runoff –Give output for smaller areas (NUTS2, NVZ) –Give the possibility to calculate seasonal variation Building new agricultural module of RAINS/GAINS [2]

EDGAR and RAINS/GAINS Merging both approaches to create a tool that combines detailed spatially resolved emission inventories with database on control technologies and economic development. Possible applications: –Generate spatially resolved emission scenarios considering different economic development and various policy setting –Provide input to dispersion models (regional, hemispheric, global) The tool will be based on the Web technology and will be openly available Once the concept and technology proves itself in applications for Europe and Asia, the modules for other regions can be developed –The idea is that other teams with expertise in other regions could “plug in” and either use it for their own purpose and/or work together on extension of the coverage available for all users.

Other “futures” Sensitivity towards alternative energy/agricultural projections needs to be further explored Incorporation into RAINS of all-European transport scenarios (TREMOVE) desirable Health impact assessment for PM, including differentiation for urban air quality (City-Delta) Good understanding of agricultural production systems across Europe and assessment of future abatement potential are more important than ever EC4MACS proposal for LIFE+ funding ( )

The EU-LIFE project EC4MACS: European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies EU funding for a consortium of integrated assessment modelling teams to prepare and maintain modelling tools for air quality and climate policy development –IIASA (CIAM) - Coordinator –MNP/RIVM (CCE) - critical loads data –NTUA Athens – energy projections –Uni Bonn et al. – agricultural projections –LTUA Thessaloniki – transport modelling –AEAT et al. – benefit assessment –MET.NO (MSC-W) – dispersion modelling –Supported by additional contracts for JRC Ispra and Sevilla Project time frame ~4.5 million € EU contribution (on co-funding basis)

Elements of the 2007 workplan Review of the Gothenburg Protocol: –Update national energy & emission projections –Contribution to TFIAM-review report Revision of the protocol: –Report on agricultural emissions modelling –Report on GAINS-model optimizations result –Further development of (dynamic) ecosystem modelling incl. the nitrogen cycle –Further explore options for target setting and robustness analysis –Analysis of effects of hemispheric pollution scenarios –Improve treatment of negative cost measures in GAINS –Further evaluation of sectoral trends & MFR, incl. NTM, emerging technologies & ships