1. RAINS overview TFIEP Workshop on Emission Projections Thessaloniki, Greece, 30-31 October, 2006 Zbigniew Klimont EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)

2. Content Principles and type of analysis Method and structure of emission calculation Data flow Calibration Projection data Examples of projections and arising issues More information? No conclusions

3. Cost-effectiveness needs integration Economic/energy development (projections) State of emission controls, available technologies, costs Atmospheric processes Environmental sensitivities

4. The RAINS model: Scenario analysis mode Energy/agriculture projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Costs Driving forces Health & environmental impact indicators

5. A multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework Primary PM Health impacts: - PM  SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3  via secondary aerosols Acidification  Eutrophication  - Ozone  Vegetation damage: - Ozone 

6. Multi-pollutant/multi-effect analysis for identifying cost-effective policy scenarios SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 PM HealthAcidificationEutrophication Ozone Policy targets IIASA’s RAINS computer model

7. Uniform or effect-based scenarios?

8. The cost-effectiveness approach Decision makers Decide about Ambition level (environmental targets) Level of acceptable risk Willingness to pay Models help to separate policy and technical issues: Models Identify cost-effective and robust measures: Balance controls over different countries, sectors and pollutants Regional differences in Europe Side-effects of present policies Maximize synergies with other air quality problems Search for robust strategies

9. Emission sources (1) Several sectors: –energy –industrial production –transport –solvent use –agriculture Activities –fuels (17) –processes (~70) –other (e.g., livestock farming, paint use)

10. Emission sources (2) Criteria for aggregation RAINS applies five criteria: Importance of source (>0.5 percent in a country) Possibility for using uniform activity rates and emission factors Possibility of establishing plausible forecasts of future activity levels Availability and applicability of “similar” control technologies Availability of relevant data In spite all that effort…. about 1500 emission categories included.

11. Emission sources (3) Level of detail (1): Energy: –Power plants (by fuel and furnace type) –Industry (by fuel and furnace type) –residential combustion (by fuel and installation type) Industrial processes: –NMVOC module (over 20 sectors) –PM module (over 40 sectors) Transport: –Road (two-wheelers, cars, trucks; by fuel and engine type) –Off-road (several categories; by fuel) –Non-exhaust (brake, tyre, and road wear and evaporative) –Shipping (inland shipping, coastal zone, international)

12. Emission sources (4) Level of detail (2): Agriculture: –Animal categories (by housing type) –N-Fertilizer application (urea and other fertilizers) –Industry –Transport –Other Other: –NMVOC module (e.g., evaporative losses from fuel distribution, paint use, waste burning, etc.) –PM module (agriculture, waste burning, storage and distribution of fuels and industrial products, etc.)

13. Emission sources (5) EXAMPLE: VOC processes/sources Solvent use: Dry cleaning and degreasing Decorative paints Industrial paint application Vehicle manufacturing and repair Printing Manufacture of paints, inks and glue Preservation of wood Chemical industry Tyre production Pharmaceutical industry Domestic use of solvents Other Oil production and use: Off- and on- shore exploration Refineries Storage of crude and products Distribution of products (e.g., gasoline stations) Mobile: Evaporative emissions from gasoline engines Exhaust emissions from road and off-road vehicles

14. Method - Calculating emissions where: i,j,k,m,y Country, sector, fuel, abatement technology, pollutant E i,y Emissions in country i and pollutant (species) y AActivity in a given sector ef“Raw gas” emission factor eff m Reduction efficiency of the abatement option m X m Implementation rate of the considered abatement measure m

15. Method - Information on the level of activity Historical (1990,1995,2000) – statistics, communication with national experts, own assessments Forecasts (until 2030) – energy models, agricultural models, countries’ submissions

16. Method – emission factors “Unabated” emission factors for anthropogenic sources only Country/region specific factors taken into account wherever possible, i.e.: –For SO2: fuel characteristics –For PM: fuel and installation characteristics –For NH3: N-excretion and volatilization, production efficiency, housing period –For NMVOC: climatic conditions, volatility of fuels, solvent content of products

17. Method – abatement techniques Economic and technical information for “technical” measures For most techniques efficiency assessed from literature and communication with experts, however, country/region specific factors taken into account when necessary, i.e.: –For NH3: geophysical conditions, feeding strategies –For NMVOC: sector “composition”, solvent content of products Introduction of “applicability” parameter, i.e., maximum technically feasible application rate of control option Actual and projected penetration rate of control technology

18. Expert Groups Data flow National Inventory UNECE - LRTAP UNFCCC EU - NECD Industrial inventory EU – Solvent D. EU – LCPD EU – Other EU – IPPC/EPER Emissions EMEP (Verification) Parameters, e.g, abatement efficiencies RAINS model National Experts Industrial Experts Activity data, emissions, abatement penetration

19. Changes in national emission inventories for 2000 - NEC vs. earlier assessment (1)

20. Changes in national emission inventories for 2000 - NEC vs. earlier assessment (2)

21. National assessments vs. RAINS estimate for 2000 SO 2 NO x NH 3 NMVOC

22. PM emissions – national assessment vs. RAINS estimate for 2000

23. Input data for projections Driving forces National information on projected energy (21), agricultural (18) and other activities European models: –Energy and macroeconomic assumptions - PRIMES, –Agriculture - CAPRI, FAO, EFMA, –Transport - TREMOVE Other sources, e.g., industry (solvents), CEPMEIP Parameters Penetration of abatement techniques Changes in efficiency of production Applicability of abatement

24. Problems and uncertainties (SO x, NO x, PM) Transport – Veh-km and vehicle numbers often inconsistent with fuel consumption. Projections of vehicle numbers available only for a few countries Differences in reporting transport emissions – fuel sold vs. fuel used. For NEC fuel sold was taken PM estimates – some countries don’t report PM2.5 and PM10; often not all sources included Poor information on size an chemical speciation for several sources Larger uncertainty for un- or poorly regulated sources, i.e., industrial processes, off-road, domestic Availability of data on biomass use ‘Real life’ reduction efficiencies, e.g., NOx-HDT, PM-DPM

25. Problems and uncertainties (NH 3 ) For few countries issue of base year statistical data; inconsistencies between national and international data Poor information on housing systems in place and their future evolution Contradictory information on how existing legislation is or will be implemented Emissions from non-agricultural sources not always reported For a number of countries better information on current practices could lead to significant improvements, i.e., development of national emission factors

26. Changes in ammonia emissions for different activity projections

27. Comparison of agricultural activity projections Example for Dairy cows

28. Changes in ammonia emissions for different interpretation of law Implementation of legislation – interpretation of IPPC Directive

29. Changes in ammonia emissions for different interpretation of law Implementation of legislation – interpretation of IPPC Directive

30. Problems and uncertainties (NMVOC) Unsatisfactory resolution of emission reporting format does not allow for verification of emissions from solvent use Evaporative emissions from cars, residential combustion and solvent use contribute most to the uncertainty of 2000 estimates; the latter two retain their importance for 2020 calculations Better information on combustion technology used in residential sector essential for future work National projections for emissions from solvent use remain an exception; industry provided their perspective for a number of sectors and MS Emissions from open biomass burning often not included Better collaboration between industrial associations and national emission experts could lead to significant improvements

31. NMVOC emission trends (example for coating sector) national vs. industrial perspective

32. Sources of uncertainty Activity projections Expected penetration of abatement (interpretation of law) Maximum penetration of abatement Simplified models matter more for sectoral, regional allocation Significant uncertainties remain –Poor information on size an chemical speciation for several sources –Larger uncertainty for un- or poorly regulated sources, i.e., industrial processes, off-road, domestic –Availability of data on biomass use Sea shipping and recreational shipping emissions, ‘Real life’ reduction efficiencies, e.g., NOx-HDT, PM-DPM Questions of applicability of western methods (and assessments) to the non-EU25 countries largely remain.

33. More information The background information available from: Home of RAINS: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/ The RainsWeb on line model: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/apd/RainsWeb The RAINS documentation: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/databases.html The RAINS review: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/review