FAOCGIARWMO

A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress. GECAFS Vision

How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security? What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions? Fundamental Questions

Global Environmental Change changes in the biogeophysical environment Food Systems an interconnected set of processes and activities Food Security a state or condition underpinned by food systems Key Terms

Global Environmental Change Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality For example changes in: Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

Examples of human activities leading to GEC: Deforestation Fossil fuel consumption Urbanisation Land reclamation Agricultural intensification Freshwater extraction Fisheries overexploitation Waste production Global Environmental Change

changes in the biogeophysical environment Food Systems an interconnected set of processes and activities Key Terms

A Food System is a set of dynamic interactions between and within the human and biogeophysical environments which result in the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food. (definition based on FAO viewpoint) should involve interactions designed to provide food security. is based on three major components each comprising three key elements influenced by many determinants.

FOOD UTILISATION Components of Food Systems & Key Elements FOOD ACCESS Affordability Allocation Preference Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety FOOD AVAILABILITY Production Distribution Exchange

SocioeconomicBiogeophysical Advertising & media Customs, tastes & trends Food prices & household budgets Food standard regulations Labour availability & productivity Land policy & land tenure Market polices (input prices, credit & subsidies) Supply chain infrastructure Storage, processing & food preparation technologies Trade policies (border controls, international agreements) Appearance of food produced Bioavailability & bioefficacy Contamination and toxins Germplasm Natural resource base and productivity potential Nutrient content of food Plant and animal pests & diseases Primary processing Quantity & quality of food produced Seasonality of food produced Waste disposal and management Example Determinants of Food Systems

Food Systems operate through connections between related determinants operating in one or more major components. fail to deliver food security when determinants, and/or the links between them, are disrupted by GEC or other stresses. can be adapted to reduce their vulnerability to GEC by –identifying which related determinants are particularly sensitive to GEC –enhancing effective determinants –restoring disrupted determinants

Determinants perspective helps analyse external stressors on Food Systems FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS FOOD AVAILABILITY HIV-AIDS Climate Change Political Unrest Floods, Droughts Currency Fluctuations Water Pollution Economic Recession War Change in Trading Agreements

Food Systems Concepts questions defined 1.What parameters describe food systems so as to facilitate GECAFS research? 2.Within given food systems, which parameters are most sensitive to GEC? 3.Who are the agents within each major food system, what are their roles, and how do they interact?

Vulnerability of Food Systems to GEC questions defined 1.Which aspects of food systems (availability, accessibility, utilisation) are presently most vulnerable to environmental stress and which stresses are most threatening? 2.How might these vulnerabilities change in the future and to what extent might GEC either heighten or mitigate these vulnerabilities? 3.Which strategies, involving both the private and public sectors, will most likely reduce food system vulnerabilities and thereby increase food security?

Global Environmental Change changes in the biogeophysical environment Food Systems an interconnected set of processes and activities Food Security a state or condition underpinned by food systems Key Terms

Food Security is underpinned by food systems exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (definition from the World Food Summit) emphasizes access for individuals, households, communities to food. is researched via food systems approach

To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of GEC on food systems and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving food security. GECAFS Goal

Achieving the Goal 1.Improve understanding of the interactions between food systems and key socioeconomic and biogeophysical components of the Earth System. 2.Deliver the new science necessary to assist policy formulation for improving food security in the face of GEC. These are to be undertaken simultaneously

Global Environmental Change and Food Systems Research Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Adaptation Decision Support

1. Conceptual & Methodological Research i.Food Systems Concepts ii.Vulnerability Concepts iii.Scenario Construction iv.Decision Support Systems 2. Food Systems Research in i.Indo-Gangetic Plain ii.Caribbean iii.Southern Africa Research Approaches

1.What are the plausible future changes in environmental and socioeconomic conditions that will affect food systems? 2.What elements of global scenarios are most important for regional-level food system analyses? 3.What what are the best approaches for linking global scenarios to regional scale so as to capture regional- level factors relevant to food systems? Scenario Development questions defined

Science Agendas Development Agendas Policy Makers Resource Managers Research Relevance & Partnerships Science Natural Socio- economic

Decision Support Systems questions defined 1.What is the best way to determine the information needs of advisors to policymakers, resource managers and other stakeholders regarding GEC and food issues? 2.How can DSS best be developed to help analyse the socioeconomic and environmental tradeoffs of adaptation options? 3.What is the best methodological approach to DSS development to optimise communication with stakeholders?

Update on GECAFS IGP planning

Western Region (1, 2 & 3) high productivity – food surplus high investment in infrastructure major use of fertilisers and ground- water for irrigation in-migration of labour Eastern Region (4 & 5) low productivity – food deficit poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer and water high risk of flooding out-migration of labour IGP General Characteristics

 The IGP food system is both threatened by GEC and contributes to further GEC “forcing”.  In the face of increased climate variability, policy requirements are to develop strategies that: a)sustain/boost agricultural production while limiting further environmental degradation b)promote food systems which improve socioeconomic conditions for the more vulnerable c)encourage reduced intra-regional labour migration  Research needs to recognise the marked socioeconomic and biophysical differences across the region. Context

Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems What will be the consequences of changed water management on rural livelihoods, intra- regional trade, GHG emissions and water tables? How will climate variability affect change in water demand in IGP food systems? How can changes in water management (e.g. though policy instruments and/or agronomic aspects) reduce vulnerability of rice-wheat productivity to climate variability? IGP Western Sub-Region Characterisation and GECAFS Questions high productivity – food surplus region high investment in infrastructure major use of fertilisers and ground-water for irrigation in-migration of labour

Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems How would diversification effect rural incomes, labour migration, water quality and regional biodiversity? How will climate variability affect vulnerability of resource-poor farmers to flooding? What are the market opportunities, social constraints and technical options for diversifying crops (e.g. aquaculture) to make more effective use of flood and groundwater? IGP Eastern Sub-Region Characterisation and GECAFS Questions low productivity – food deficit region poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer and water high risk of flooding out-migration of labour

Specific Objectives  Improved assessment of the spatial and temporal vulnerability of food systems across the IGP.  Refined decision support systems to address stakeholder needs relating to potential policy and technical interventions.  Improved water governance from enhanced capacity of stakeholders to use different types of decision support systems.

1.Standard characterisation and classification of food systems and their water requirements: five case study sites. 2.Refined and improved Water Poverty Index methodology. 3.Initial assessments of vulnerability of the food systems in relation to water availability for the case study sites and the region. Will build on regional research on: food production (RWC) diversification (IFAD & WB projects) policy reform in irrigation sector (IMWI) GECAFS IGP Research Products Stage I

4.Decision Support Systems for analysing socioeconomic and environmental consequences of alternative policies and water management technologies. 5.Analysis of socioeconomic and environmental tradeoffs of alternative water policy and technical options at national and regional levels. GECAFS IGP Research Products Stage II Capacity building of regional stakeholders and scientists through collaborative analysis in both stages.

Participating Institutions Bangladesh:Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad India:Indian Council of Agricultural Research Nepal:Nepal Water Conservation Foundation Pakistan:Global Change Impact Studies Centre & Pakistan Agricultural Research Council UK:NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology USA:University of Illinois CGIAR:International Food Policy Research Institute GECAFSInternational Project Coordination