1. “Policy-related information needs for decision makers dealing with food security in the context of environmental change” GECAFS Gainesville Meeting, 10-11 January 2005 Graham Farmer FAO Regional Emergency Coordinator for Southern Africa FAO RIACSO, Johannesburg, South Africa

2. Start with some conceptual framing

3. Academic - Operational An academic approach favours the strength of the individual An academic approach favours the strength of the individual An operational response needs institutional buy-in, likely catalyzed through the individuals An operational response needs institutional buy-in, likely catalyzed through the individuals GECAFS has to bring academic and operational together if it is to achieve its goal of making a difference GECAFS has to bring academic and operational together if it is to achieve its goal of making a difference

4. Components of a Food System Availability Availability Access Access Utilisation Utilisation Does a fourth element of ‘stability’ broaden the definition of ‘food system’ to dynamic ‘food security’? Does a fourth element of ‘stability’ broaden the definition of ‘food system’ to dynamic ‘food security’?

5. Early Warning - Response We often have the technology to provide an early warning We often have the technology to provide an early warning As a generality, response to an early warning needs: As a generality, response to an early warning needs: Confidence in the early warning Confidence in the early warning Expedience: political and financial, national and international Expedience: political and financial, national and international Cost-effectiveness, may seem least important, given the lack of investment in mitigation and development Cost-effectiveness, may seem least important, given the lack of investment in mitigation and development

6. Scale – Geographic and Temporal Temporal – need to match, or better, the resolution of the temporal GECAFS impact to the time-step of the livelihood / food systems Temporal – need to match, or better, the resolution of the temporal GECAFS impact to the time-step of the livelihood / food systems Spatial – how to bring together the spatial output scales of, for example, GEC models with higher resolution food systems detail Spatial – how to bring together the spatial output scales of, for example, GEC models with higher resolution food systems detail Resolving these issues would strengthen the operational appeal arising from the intellectual outputs Resolving these issues would strengthen the operational appeal arising from the intellectual outputs

7. Development-Emergency Contiguum Standard continuum approach in the past, where stress is seen as a, relatively minor, perturbation on overall development Standard continuum approach in the past, where stress is seen as a, relatively minor, perturbation on overall developmentBUT Now a change to contemporaneous paradigm, especially in southern Africa, with a still acknowledged need for a longer-term, ‘development’ framework Now a change to contemporaneous paradigm, especially in southern Africa, with a still acknowledged need for a longer-term, ‘development’ framework

8. Drawing insights from Southern Africa, underlying issues Chronic emergency eroding the gains of development activities (ref: HDI etc.) Chronic emergency eroding the gains of development activities (ref: HDI etc.) Poverty Poverty HIV/AIDS HIV/AIDS Process of land reform in Zimbabwe Process of land reform in Zimbabwe Governance and policy issues in Zimbabwe Governance and policy issues in Zimbabwe Climatic extremes – drought and some floods Climatic extremes – drought and some floods

9. What is FAO in Southern Africa doing within the Development-Emergency Contiguum? Regional Coordination and multi-national approaches such as on Transboundary Animal Diseases National programmes aimed at: Preservation of livelihoods, a broad-based approach Stabilisation of production, technical specificities Improving food security (national and household) Coordination, monitoring and evaluation Reducing the need for external food aid Targeting specific vulnerabilities (HIV/AIDS factor)

10. Returning to the subject

11. “Policy-related information needs for decision makers dealing with food security in the context of environmental change” In its broadest sense, policy is a framework within which to operate. A food security policy would / should be initiated because food security is seen as a valid & noble goal.

12. Issue One Understand the current food systems, which links in to the first objective of the GECAFS DSS workshop; “ascertain the nature of environmental and socioeconomic information needed to support improved policy formulation for food security, and especially that needed by technical advisors to policymakers (key end-users of GECAFS research)” Understand the current food systems, which links in to the first objective of the GECAFS DSS workshop; “ascertain the nature of environmental and socioeconomic information needed to support improved policy formulation for food security, and especially that needed by technical advisors to policymakers (key end-users of GECAFS research)”

13. Issue Two Intersect the GECAFS knowledge-base with the content, spatial and temporal scales of current food systems, looking for operational angle(s) that will create institutional buy-in. There is an issue here with the dominance of reactive, short-term response vision, so the creation of linkages to key supporters is essential. Intersect the GECAFS knowledge-base with the content, spatial and temporal scales of current food systems, looking for operational angle(s) that will create institutional buy-in. There is an issue here with the dominance of reactive, short-term response vision, so the creation of linkages to key supporters is essential.

14. Issue Three Determine, with the operational institutions, the utility of GECAFS analysis in determining differing levels of mitigation, early warning and response, which could then be used in cost-benefit examples to indicate the utility of the proposed work. Determine, with the operational institutions, the utility of GECAFS analysis in determining differing levels of mitigation, early warning and response, which could then be used in cost-benefit examples to indicate the utility of the proposed work.

15. So, and in conclusion, as food security is seen as a good thing, what are the “Policy-related information needs for decision makers dealing with food security in the context of environmental change”? Information on current food systems. (Gainesville Obj. 1) Information on current food systems. (Gainesville Obj. 1) Likelihoods and realistic scales of stated GEC impacts. Likelihoods and realistic scales of stated GEC impacts. Potential intervention or mitigation strategies. Potential intervention or mitigation strategies. The cost of doing nothing, perhaps as a component of a, needed, cost-benefit analysis. (Gainesville Obj. 2) The cost of doing nothing, perhaps as a component of a, needed, cost-benefit analysis. (Gainesville Obj. 2) Directions and interpretations for development of operational action plans, showing GEC as a component of FS policies. (Gainesville Obj. 3) Directions and interpretations for development of operational action plans, showing GEC as a component of FS policies. (Gainesville Obj. 3)

16. Can we get in to more detail? Depends on the food system but we could identify general areas. e.g. Water – crucial for more than just crops (livestock, domestic, industry…) but there are clear impacts in rainfed- agriculture areas. There is a need for better water management. So, need for clarity in GECAFS output. e.g. Water – crucial for more than just crops (livestock, domestic, industry…) but there are clear impacts in rainfed- agriculture areas. There is a need for better water management. So, need for clarity in GECAFS output. Open to discussion and expansion… Open to discussion and expansion…

17. Thank You