Climate variability, trends and scenarios for Mexico and Argentina. Cecilia Conde, Marta Vinocur, Carlos Gay, Roberto Seiler. AIACC LA-29 Integrated Assessment.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Integrating climate and weather products in Water Resources Management by Francis Mutua University of Nairobi.

Advertisements

The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information.

PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IN THE SUMMER SEASON IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti CENTRO DE PREVISÃO.

High-resolution Climate Scenarios for the 21st Century and Applications in Impacts Assessments on Water Resources in China Yinlong XU （许吟隆） Institute.

The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information.

Climate changes in Southern Africa; downscaling future (IPCC) projections Olivier Crespo Thanks to M. Tadross Climate Systems Analysis Group University.

LA_06: Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation Measures for the Water Resources Sector due to Extreme Events under Climate Change Conditions in Central America.

Status of Climate Change/Variability Studies in RA V Countries Lourdes V. Tibig Philippines.

Evaluating Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Water Resource Availability of Upper Awash Sub-basin, Ethiopia rift valley basin. By Mekonnen.

Impact of climate scenarios on vulnerability and coping Impact of climate scenarios on vulnerability and coping or “How does the climate modeler fit in.

Agricultural impacts of climate in Mexico and Argentina. Cecilia Conde, Roberto Seiler, Marta Vinocur. LA - 29.

Víctor Orlando Magaña Rueda Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM Climate Change in Mexico Global Environmental Change: the challenge for North America.

IRWIN IRWIN Improved winter index for maintenance and climate scenarios Torbjörn Gustavsson Pirkko Saarikivi, Dave Rayner, Jörgen Bogren, Caroline Tengroth.

Downscaling and Uncertainty

Progress in Downscaling Climate Change Scenarios in Idaho Brandon C. Moore.

Large-scale atmospheric circulation characteristics and their relations to local daily precipitation extremes in Hesse, central Germany Anahita Amiri Department.

Pacific Northwest Climate Model Scenarios 2008 Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Eric Salathé Philip.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management Akm Saiful Islam Lecture-4: Module- 3 Regional Climate.

Rachael Dempsey Penn State’s Institutes of the Environment

Integrated Assessment and Modelling: Introduction to training exercises RICHARD WARRICK International Global Change Institute (IGCI) University of Waikato.

Assessment of Extreme Rainfall in the UK Marie Ekström

The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information.

Application of seasonal climate forecasts to predict regional scale crop yields in South Africa Trevor Lumsden and Roland Schulze School of Bioresources.

Downscaling in time. Aim is to make a probabilistic description of weather for next season –How often is it likely to rain, when is the rainy season likely.

Observed changes in climatic variables relevant for agricultural production during in the Pampas region of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay (AIACC.

Session: Adaptation Opportunities and Capacity Second AIACC Regional Workshop for Latin America and the Caribbean Regente Palace Hotel, Buenos Aires, Argentina,

South Eastern Latin America LA26: Impact of GC on coastal areas of the Rio de la Plata: Sea level rise and meteorological effects LA27: Building capacity.

Zhang Mingwei 1, Deng Hui 2,3, Ren Jianqiang 2,3, Fan Jinlong 1, Li Guicai 1, Chen Zhongxin 2,3 1. National satellite Meteorological Center, Beijing, China.

© UKCIP 2006 UKCP09 and the West Midlands region West Midlands Regional Climate Change Adaptation Partnership, 8th July 2009 Chris Thomas, UK Climate Impacts.

Climate data sets: introduction two perspectives: A. What varieties of data are available? B. What data helps you to identify...

STARDEX STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes for European regions A project within the EC 5th Framework Programme EVK2-CT

Agriculture/Forest Fire Management Presentations Summary Determine climate and weather extremes that are crucial in resource management and policy making.

ASIAN-SMALL ISLAND STATE GROUP Countries: Mongolia (AS06) Thailand and Indo China (AS07) Sri Lanka (AS12) Philippines, Indonesia (AS21) China (AS25) Fiji.

Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain (Facultad de Ciencias – UR LA32/LA26) Ines Camilloni (Facultad de Ciencias – UBA LA26)

Where the Research Meets the Road: Climate Science, Uncertainties, and Knowledge Gaps First National Expert and Stakeholder Workshop on Water Infrastructure.

Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina Project Coordinator:

© Crown copyright Met Office Providing High-Resolution Regional Climates for Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning Joseph Intsiful, African.

Adaptation Baselines Through V&A Assessments Prof. Helmy Eid Climate Change Experts (SWERI) ARC Egypt Material for : Montreal Workshop 2001.

Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change Canada Water Accounts AET estimates for.

Funded under the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number: Climate change scenarios incorporated into the CLIMSAVE Integrated.

Climate Change Scenarios for Agriculture Sam Gameda and Budong Qian Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Ottawa,

Adaptation under the UNFCCC national communications process/ linkages with AIACC AIACC Latin America/Caribbean Regional Workshop May 2003 San Jose,

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support.

© Crown copyright Met Office Regional Temperature and Precipitation changes under high- end global warming Michael Sanderson, Deborah Hemming, Richard.

Variation of Surface Soil Moisture and its Implications Under Changing Climate Conditions 1.

Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation.

Breakout Session IV: Applying Remote Sensing Observations to Impacts Assessment Background (1) The IPCC WG 2 Report (2008) “Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation.

A significant amount of climate data are available: DETERMINING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND PROJECTIONS It can be time-consuming to manage and interpret.

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support.

Feng Zhang and Aris Georgakakos School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology Sample of Chart Subheading Goes Here Comparing.

Panut Manoonvoravong Bureau of research development and hydrology Department of water resources.

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support.

© Crown copyright Met Office Downscaling ability of the HadRM3P model over North America Wilfran Moufouma-Okia and Richard Jones.

Research & Systematic Observations (IX) Vulnerability Assessment, Impacts and Adaptation Measures (VII) Research & Systematic Observations (IX) Vulnerability.

The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information.

Climate Change and Water Supply: Potential Hydrologic Consequences Guido Franco Technical Lead for Climate Change Research Public Interest Energy Research.

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support.

AF 42 1 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION CAPACITY IN THE LIMPOPO BASIN OF SEMI-ARID LAND SOUTHERN AFRICA: THE CASE OF EASTERN BOTSWANA.

Climate Risk Management Approach in the IRI (from months, through decades, to long-term climate change) Four Pillars Identify Vulnerabilities and Opportunities.

Enabling Climate Impact Assessment in Wisconsin Chris Kucharik and Dan Vimont The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI)

Anomalies of global air temperature during the last Millennium, relative to the period

Projects in Meso-America:

An Introduction to the Climate Change Explorer Tool: Locally Downscaled GCM Data for Thailand and Vietnam Greater Mekong Sub-region – Core Environment.

Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification

CLIMATE CHANGE – FUNDAMENTALS

South Eastern Latin America

LA06 Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation Measures for the Water Resources Sector Due to Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions. REGIONAL PROJECT.

Project Duration: 3 years

Presentation transcript:

Climate variability, trends and scenarios for Mexico and Argentina. Cecilia Conde, Marta Vinocur, Carlos Gay, Roberto Seiler. AIACC LA-29 Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina

Uribe, Douglas, Douglas, Palma, 2004

Central Region Veracruz 12 Events > +1 std 3 events <-1std 1 event > +1 std 8 events <-1std 7 events > +1 std1 event > +1 std 6 events<-1std7 events<-1std

Argentina Study area Córdoba Province

IPCC vs Observed data (3 stations) Southern Córdoba r = 0.86 Pcp. Obs. DEF.

Pcp Laboulaye,

Risk space. Veracruz. JJA

Risk space. Laboulaye, Cba.

Relation between climate – specific crops Allows us to differentiate seasonal climatic impacts from other stressors Relation to current governmental programs (example: FAPRACC, Mexico). Helps communication. Decision makers and regional experts. Helps to decide between climate change scenarios. Some advantages of these Climatic Risk Spaces

Uncertainties Spatial: Regional, local? Temporal: annual, seasonal, monthly, daily data (frost, hail, strong winds)? Future? “Risk” to whom? to what? Different crop sensitivity

Climate Change scenarios Magicc /ScengenMagicc /Scengen outputs –SRES: A2 and B2 –Medium and High Sensitivity –Echam, Hadley, GFDL –2020, 2050 (monthly and seasonal) –Temperature and Precipitation Simple interpolation in 1ºx1º grid (Mexico). For study sites: scatter plots ( simple interpolation ) Downscaling techniques for Veracruz (Mexico). No SRES. 2xCO2 C. Conde, A. Tejeda, C. Gay, O. Sánchez*, R. Araujo, B. Palma, Vinocur.

Selected GCMs ECHAM model:ECHAM model: Lowest differences with observed data. México (Magaña, 2003;Conde, 2003). GFDL (and CC) models:GFDL (and CC) models: used in Country Study: Mexico (1994 – 1996) HADLEY model:HADLEY model: used in LA Córdoba, Argentina,These models are used also for Córdoba, Argentina, as suggested by LA-26

Downscaling. JJA. GFDL T = F(Z). (Used for electricity rates) T 0corr = - k1 – k2 Z + k3 T1 Model r = 0.966; r 2 =93.4  T corr = b 1  T Temperature Base Scenario Palma, B. 2004

Examples for Mexico. ECHAM98. A2 MES PRECIPITATION. JULY (-8,-2) (12%,- 8%) (16%, 8%) “user friendly” Sánchez, Araujo, Conde

MEXICO. Temperature Climate Change Scenarios. A2, B , GCMs. July

ARGENTINA. Temperature Climate Change Scenarios. A2, B , GCMs. Jan.

MEXICO. Precipitation Climate Change Scenarios. A2, B , GCMs. July

Argentina. Precipitation Climate Change Scenarios. A2, B , GCMs. Jan.

Decisions? Pcp: -35% to +40% T: 1.5ºC to 3.8ºC Which of the multiple combinations represent future climatic risk? Or an opportunity?

“Risk Space”. Veracruz. 2020

Summer Temperature E=Echam, H=Hadley, sm=Clim Sen. Med., sa=Clim. Sen. High, trend=tendency (aleatory numeric generator ). What about changes in variability? Gay,C., F. Estrada, C. Conde, 2004

Conclusions Regional climatic variability and trends analysis helps defining climatic risk Climatic “risk spaces” can be use as a tool to communicate risk, related to crops and defining other stressors. Regional climate change scenarios can be compared to “risk spaces” to define future climatic risk and/or opportunities. Changes in climate variability are fundamental for agriculture