1. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project A collaborative project sponsored by the Climate Change Action Fund Elaine Barrow - Principal Investigator (Science) AIR Group, Environment Canada Canadian Institute for Climate Studies Presented by: Monirul Mirza

2. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Project Aims To encourage the use of a consistent set of climate change scenarios by the VIA research community in Canada By: providing basic national climate change scenarios developing a nationally-consistent framework within which sector- and region-specific climate change scenarios can be developed developing and maintaining a capacity to support climate impacts and adaptation research and assessments http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios involving the university research community and scenario users in the further development of climate change scenarios

3. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Project conforms to IPCC-TGCIA recommendations: Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment (Download from: http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk) Focus is on climate change scenario construction using GCM output: Warm start experiments

4. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada SRES Scenarios A1 : A introductions of new and more efficient technologies world of rapid economic growth and rapid A2 : A very heterogenous world with an emphasis on familiy values and local traditions B1 : A world of „dematerialization“ and introduction of clean technologies B2 : A world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability IS92a „business as usual“ scenario (1992)

5. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada IS92a, and now SRES emissions scenarios GCMs which have been involved in model intercomparison exercises

6. “Users should design and apply multiple scenarios in impacts assessments, where these scenarios span a range of possible future climates, rather than designing and applying a single ‘best guess’ scenario” IPCC-TGCIA Recommendation

7. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Multiple Scenarios

8. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada The CCIS Project http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios

9. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Web Site Products Introduction to web site products - PowerPoint tour Scenarios ‘primer’

10. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Climate change scenarios for Canada and North America At original GCM resolution; 0.5° latitude/longitude Mean changes wrt 1961-1990 for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s; also monthly time series, anomalies Monthly, seasonal and annual values Climate variables, minimum data set: mean, minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, a radiation variable, a humidity variable, wind speed Advice on scenario construction, downscaling, applications, limitations and uncertainties What’s available... http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios

11. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Scenarios from... Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis ( CGCM1, CGCM2 ) Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research ( HadCM2, HadCM3 ) Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation ( CSIROMk2b ) German Climate Research Centre ( ECHAM4 ) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL-R15 ) Japanese Centre for Climate Research Studies ( CCSR-98 ) US National Centre for Atmospheric Research ( NCAR-PCM )

12. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada

13. Visualisation and Download

14. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada

15. Related Information

16. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Application of Climate Change Scenarios Simplest method: apply monthly or seasonal scenario changes from appropriate grid box to observed data (either daily, monthly or seasonal).

17. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Scenario changes applied to 1961-1990 climate normal data to obtain ‘actual’ values for the 2020s Scenario Application

18. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Scenario Application [Supplied by Bill Taylor, Environment Canada, Pacific and Yukon Region] PRISM: 1961-90 Normals 2020s 2050s 2080s Present and Future Precipitation in British Columbia

19. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Bioclimate Profiles

20. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Scenario Tools Scatter plots for scenario selection Access to downscaling tools

21. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Scatter Plots

22. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Downscaling Tools Access to SDSM and predictor variables for North America (soon global) LARS-WG: stochastic weather generator

23. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Recommendations Use of climate change scenarios which preserve as far as is possible physical plausibility and spatial compatibility - implies use of GCM-derived scenarios Use of multiple scenarios in order to capture the ‘state of the science’ range of future climate If downscaling is considered to be necessary, be aware of the limitations of the particular methodology - does the ‘cost’ of downscaling add sufficient value to the coarse-scale scenarios?

24. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada What’s next for the CCIS Project?

25. CGCM1 GAX: Winter precipitation change (%) Scenario Significance

26. ‘Hot’ summer GCMs and Extreme Events

27. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Future Plans Interpretation of scenarios –descriptive indices, such as degree days, a drought index … scenarios of changes in climate variability and extremes further work on downscaling more scenarios as more GCM output becomes available