1. An Introduction to the Climate Change Explorer Tool: Locally Downscaled GCM Data for Thailand and Vietnam
Greater Mekong Sub-region – Core Environment Programme
Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Yunnan and Guangxi Provinces of PR China, Thailand and Vietnam
24-26 February 2009 Hanoi, Vietnam

2. The Climate Change Explorer Tool http://wikiadapt. org/index. php2

3. What is the CCE tool? Climate Change Explorer
Station-level data for control and future conditions (A: )
Empirical (statistically) downscaled from 8-11 of the 24 IPCC 4AR Global Circulation Models (daily mean temp and rainfall for 10 years)
Model output is for A2 socio-economic scenario 3

4. Why CCE? Inherent uncertainty in climate models.
Can’t say which model is ‘best’.
Mean ensemble forecast may give false sense of certainty of range of possible changes
GCM projections not very useful for planning adaptation! (especially in SIDS)
CCE allows non-expert users to explore the range of uncertainty in science – with the possibility of choosing options that are robust against a range of futures.

5. Who is the CCE for?
Today’s user: analysts with some knowledge of climate dynamics and model outputs (not modelers, necessarily)
Plans: User targets based on various levels of analysis
Rapid screening - is the decision sensitive to the envelope?
Thresholds in outcomes - does the mapping of potential futures indicate critical thresholds that motivate a specific adaptation action?
Probabilistic analysis of expected outcomes - does the decision depend on the expected distribution of risks? Is there an outcome variable that is critical to the decision (cost-benefit ratio)?

6. What can you do with the CCE tool?
Compare results of the different GCM models for a particular location
Packages this data by generating customized analytical and visualization
Explore climate variables relevant to their adaptation options
Designed to simplify the tasks associated with the extraction, query and analysis of climate information
Allow users to address issues of uncertainty in devising policy and strategies and in implementing actions. 6

7. Components of the CCE tool

8. Data Access and Specifications
Local (station-scale) response to the large scale forcing as shown on the GCM
To include all models with daily archived data from the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC
Updates accessible
Currently distributed in daily and monthly time series (monthly means for all models), and derivative statistics
Spatially smoothed- reflective of the regional response at each location.

9. What does the CCE Do?
Examine seasonal, multi-annual and spread of climate behavior
Import, download, graph, difference the data (look at expected changes)
Compare models to each other
Sort data into seasons and calculate some attributes about

10. Total monthly precipitation anomaly
Examine seasonal, multi-annual and spread of climate behavior
Import, download, graph, difference the data (look at expected changes)
Look for agreement/ disagreement
Envelope
ECHAM5
0.00
0.20
0.60
1.00
1.40
-0.20
-0.60
-1.00
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Daily rainfall anomaly for Bamako Station, 2045 to 2065
GISS
CCCMACGCM
Model agreement
Model disagreement
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Multi-model Anomalies
0.00
2.00
4.00
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00
-8.00
-10.00
-12.00
6.00
12.00
18.00
24.00
30.00
-18.00
-24.00
Total monthly precipitation anomaly

11. Data Available and Plans for 2009 http://www.ipcc-data.org/
Data available for 34 weather stations in Thailand and 19 in Vietnam

12. Training- a central goal
ToT
Wiki
And others

13. Thank you.. www.weADAPT.org