The Euro- and City-Delta model intercomparison exercises P. Thunis, K. Cuvelier Joint Research Centre, Ispra

EuroDelta A project to evaluate uncertainty in modelling source- receptor relationships used in air quality policy Organised by: JRC-IES, IIASA, EMEP, TNO-MEP, CONCAWE, INERIS, SMHI, FUB Objectives : Do regional air quality models produce a consistent response to emission changes ? What is the range of modelled responses to emission changes ? What are confidence limits for the modelling used in policy ?

CityDelta A project to include sub-grid effects into a Europe-wide health impact assessment for PM and O3 Organised by: JRC-IES, IIASA, EMEP, TNO-MEP, CONCAWE Objectives : Identify systematic differences (deltas) between rural and urban background AQ (scale) How these delta vary in terms of urban emissions? How these delta vary accross cities? How these delta vary accross models? How these delta vary accross pollutants ?

City-Delta Cities: Comparisons are conducted for a number of European cities with distinct differences in climatic conditions, geographical settings, and emission densities. London Paris Prague Berlin Copenhagen Katowice Milan Marseille

Participating Models EURODELTA CHIMERE REM EMEP MATCH LOTOS TM5 CITYDELTA CALGRIDMUSE CAMXTRANSCHIM MUSCATEUROS OFISMOCAGE STEMREM LOTOSCHIMERE EPISODEEMEP

Emission Scenarios EURODELTA European Wide reductions (from 2000 to 2020 with 2 sets of meteorology) Beyond 2020 specific NOx, Sox, NH3 and VOC reductions for Italy, Germany, France and Sea-areas In total 28 emission scenarios Current phase: 55 additional scenarios (5 groups) CITYDELTA 8 emission scenarios for each city 1999 Base Case 2010 Current Legislation NOx, VOC, PM25, PMc Maximum Feasible reductions Current Phase: 7 cities for 4 scenarios (3-4 modelling groups)

Input data: EMEP emissions, Met year 1999 Area Covered: Europe (resolution 50 km) Output: Surface fields (hourly, daily and monthly) organised in monthly files and reported on individual model grid. Interpolation to Lat-lon and EMEP ED: Input / Output

Data Management

The Euro- & City-delta tool Original Participant data (~Tb) Pre-processing (JRC) Processed data (20 Gb) and graphical tool available on Web

Visualisation of raw monitoring data Various statistics: observation availability, mean, max, stddev,… Only for ground stations up to now.

Comparison of measurements/model results Numerous statistics available including Taylor, AOT, SOMO, scatter-plots… Comparison of different model versions, ENSEMBLE approach restricted to ground stations

Visualisation of input emission data Sector, pollutant, country/region-wise visualisation No time or species disaggregation.

2-D visualisation Selected statistics available for 2-D monthly surface maps Comparison of different model versions, ENSEMBLE approach but pre-calculated

Mean Ozone Max ensemble min Countries

OBSERVATIONS MODEL 1MODEL 2MODEL 3, … 4-D Fields: Meteo, Chemistry, Aerosols Pre-processing (Window Interface) ASCII-BIN  CDF MONIT Observations Overview SHOWALL 4D model data analysis XZ, YZ, SZ, XY Sections Comparison with obs. VALID Statistical Module Multi-models (obs.vs. models) EMIS Emissions QAQC Ratio checks EMISSIONS

Conclusions -Surface field -Control of ext parameters (biogenics, BC, …) -2-D functions only for pre-defined variables + Common interactive graphical tool + Common input (emission, meteo) as far as possible) ? Data transfert ? Data interpolation ? Grid structure (e.g. emission release height)