Middle East and North Africa The Military Implications Sir Tim Garden.

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Presentation transcript:

Middle East and North Africa The Military Implications Sir Tim Garden

Issues Causes of Conflict in MENA Threats from Region Our Capabilities Lessons from the Recent Past What next? What force posture is needed?

The Causes of Conflict State to State Borders Resources Ethnic Arms including WMD Power ambitions Alliances

The Causes of Conflict Non State Actors Internal terrorism External terrorism Religious groups Crime Corruption

Risks in the MENA Region Post Conflict Iraq Al Qaeda Israel-Palestine - Syria - Jordan Iran Nuclear programme Saudi Arabia & Egypt Stability North Africa

What are the Threats to Us? International Terrorism Weapons of Mass Destruction Threats to Regional Allies International Crime Breaches of International System

Who are we? United Nations SC USA + coalitions NATO EU Quartet (EU UN US Russia) Inner EU core (UK France Germany)

Lessons Learned Gulf War 1 and 2 Afghanistan Balkan experience Post Conflict operations

What Capabilities? Expeditionary offensive warfare Sustainability post conflict Intelligence Conflict prevention

Where next? NATO in Afghanistan Iraq Israel-Palestine peacekeeping? Iran and WMD US action on Syria? Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya?

Military Requirements Rapid Deployment Sustainability Intelligence Experience Alliance operations

Strategic Questions High tech weapons? Conflict Prevention? Oil dependence? Islamic democracy? Future alliances? Endless war on terrorism?