1. Possible Causes of Future Wars LTC (Retired) Oakland McCulloch

2. Agenda The Scarcity of Resources Religion Immigration & Border Disputes The Rise of Nationalism & Civil Wars Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction Questions Possible Causes of Future Wars

3. Scarcity of Resources Possible Causes of Future Wars Oil The world will run out of oil! Majority of world population has not even started using oil Water Draught affects much of the world Water Pollution, waste, over use, Dams Food Bio-Fuels = less food! Growing population – shrinking arable land Environment Issues The Rain Forest The North Pole Oceans Climate Change

4. Religion Possible Causes of Future Wars More wars have been fought in the name of “God” than any other cause Nine Crusades Look at Europe between 1560 – 1715 Europeans finally put Religion a side with the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 Islam vs. the Western Religions the battle to come may make the Crusades look tame no end in sight until Islamic countries stop having Religion dominate every aspect of everyday life & politics Islam vs. the Jewish State of Israel no viable solution to this problem

5. Immigration & Border Disputes Possible Causes of Future Wars Immigration is changing the demographics of Europe & US at a very quick pace Changes in politics, culture and social norms Usually alright until something goes wrong! Border Disputes – “The Lies of the Map Makers” Many borders of the world are currently disputed (Africa, the Stans, Asia, India/Pakistan/China, Middle East) Many of these borders make no sense US / Mexico border issues in the future due to immigration Countries where borders do not matter

6. The Rise of Nationalism & Civil Wars Possible Causes of Future Wars A sharp rise in Nationalism usually equals increase in wars and ethnic violence Iran, Venezuela, China, North Korea, Japan & India Civil wars will increase with the rise of Nationalism and the increased pressures talked about earlier Civil wars between traditional parties and religious parties Non-traditional Civil Wars (China-Taiwan & North-South Korea) Rogue Nations are the wildcard especially those with WMD programs

7. Terrorism and WMDs Possible Causes of Future Wars States that sponsor terrorism (Iran, Syria, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela?, Pakistan?) Non-functioning states where terrorist hide (Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, many in Africa) Non-State actors – al Qaeda, Palestinians, other terrorist groups Use of WMD by a terrorist organization linked to a specific nation What will happen when the West looses a city to a terrorist attack by a WMD?

8. Questions ? Possible Causes of Future Wars