CORE E nvironmental H ealth S ciences Kim Knowlton, DrPH Post-Doctoral Research Scientist Public Hearing - NJ Clean Air Council April 11, 2007 Co-Benefits of Energy Efficiency and Conservation: Improving Air Quality & NJ Health Today, Climate Change & Global Health Tomorrow

CORE E nvironmental H ealth S ciences Climate Change and Public Health Energy Demand

CORE E nvironmental H ealth S ciences Climate Change and Public Health Metro NY City region home to ~8% of US population, including at-risk communities Ozone non-compliance area, summer heat waves Global/regional climate change may compound New York City urban heat island Direct health effects of heat vs. indirect ozone, pollen effects Newark JFK SURFACE TEMPERATURE, Landsat ETM 7 Aug , 10:30 AM (source: Geography Dept, Hunter College)

CORE E nvironmental H ealth S ciences Climate Change and Public Health Climate change and human health: impacts of heat and ozone Certain population groups more vulnerable to heat stress and ozone air pollution Risk factors include: Age 65+ Pre-existing cardiovascular or respiratory conditions Lack of air conditioning, city residence, low socioeconomic status, social isolation CC

CORE E nvironmental H ealth S ciences Climate Change and Public Health Ozone Formation CC

CORE E nvironmental H ealth S ciences Climate Change and Public Health US EPA (1991) in Kleinman and Lipfert (1996) Note threshold~90°F (32°C) CC

Increase in ozone levels from the 1990s to the 2050s Bell et al. Climatic Change (2007)

Average Number of 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS Exceedance Days/Summer Bell et al. Climatic Change (2007)

CORE E nvironmental H ealth S ciences Climate Change and Public Health Linking models for global and regional climate, land use and cover, and air quality… to examine the potential public health impacts of heat and air pollution under alternative scenarios of climate change & regional land use in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in the NYC metropolitan region. Funded by the USEPA STAR Research Program. CC The New York Climate & Health Project What might the future hold in our region?

CORE E nvironmental H ealth S ciences Climate Change and Public Health Climate change impacts projected in NYC More frequent, more severe storms in NYC Summer heat-related mortality could nearly double by the 2050s and more than triple by the 2080s Summer ozone-related mortality will increase both inside the five boroughs and beyond city limits CC

CORE E nvironmental H ealth S ciences Climate Change and Public Health Results: Summer heat & O 3 mortality risk assessment CC

CORE E nvironmental H ealth S ciences Climate Change and Public Health Immediate Local Co-Benefits: Reductions in Ozone- and Particulate Matter-Related Health Impacts

CC Health effects avoided from 2000 to 2020 in New York City due to ozone & particulate matter reductions if GHG mitigation measures are taken (Cifuentes et al. EHP 2001)

Beggs & Bambrick Environ Health Perspect (2005) Under increased CO 2 & temperature conditions, increased ragweed plant biomass, growth rate, pollen production (Ziska et al. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2003) CO 2 concentrations in NYC 37% higher than rural sites (Knowlton et al., unpublished data) Possible local effects of emissions on local health?

CORE E nvironmental H ealth S ciences Climate Change and Public Health Mitigation Adaptation What can we do about it? Energy efficiency & conservation Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management thru voluntary measures & government regulation Rely more on renewable energy sources (wind, solar, etc.) Decarbonisation - CO 2 removal and storage Biological carbon sequestration CC Heat-health alert systems Air conditioning distribution Water resource and shoreline management Wetlands restoration Storm evacuation planning Disaster preparedness planning Revise corporate & business plans Improve community resiliency