BIO-FUELS Guilherme Leite da Silva Dias Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto Department of Economics, FEA University of São Paulo

Unsustainable growth cycle?

A oferta de energia cresceu vinte vezes entre 1850 e 2000.Combustíveis fósseis representavam 80 por cento do total em 2000 (Holdren,2007) Gás Petróleo Carvão Nuclear Hídrica Biomassa Biofuels & Food

Is there a common ground for biofuels ? Global Warming Rising Food Costs Energy Crisis …different answers from different countries …..

How much should be paid for the raw material of a bio-fuel? Answer depends on the country`s liquid fuel price policy

July 2007, in Germany: Pump average price of diesel was US$ 1,62 per liter (current exchange rate) Assuming that the highest share for vegetable oil cost is 72% of pump price in order to warrant a good profit for industry and retailer, Highest price paid for soybean oil should be US$ 1,27 per kg. (0,92 kg of vegetable oil for 1 liter of biodiesel). US$ 1270 per metric ton of vegetable oil is not far from the future price in CBOT soon after the northern hemisphere harvest. How much should be paid for the raw material of a bio-fuel?

Source of Data OECD Input-Output Matrices

Countries & Years Argentina Brazil China India – 1998/99 USA France Germany Japan

Sectors

Imports X Domestic Output

Value Added

Total Output

Value Added & Total Output

Output Multipliers

Pure Linkages

Coke, Ref. Petroleum & Nuclear Fuel

Energy in Final Demand

Energy in Intermediate Consumption

Energy in Total Output

Food in Final Demand

Food in Intermediate Consumption

Food in Total Output

Transport in Final Demand

Transport in Intermediate Consumption

Transport in Total Output

Disposable Domestic Value Added

Value Added Relations

International Trade Bilateral Trade Agreements, seems to be more adequate than a multilateral approach.

Final Comments