Highlights. Second - quarter GDP growth slows in U. S. and Japan… surges in Euro Zone growth at seasonally - adjusted annualized rates Source : National.
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Presentation on theme: "Highlights. Second - quarter GDP growth slows in U. S. and Japan… surges in Euro Zone growth at seasonally - adjusted annualized rates Source : National."— Presentation transcript:
Second - quarter GDP growth slows in U. S. and Japan… surges in Euro Zone growth at seasonally - adjusted annualized rates Source : National Agencies through Datastream.
Domestic demand growth Foreign contribution to GDP Domestic demand in U. S. and Europe… offset and amplified by external trade growth at seasonally - adjusted annualized rates contributions to growth a annualized rates Source : World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.
Second - quarter surge in trade unlikely to be sustained U. S real imports of goods and services ; German real exports of goods and services Source : Thomson / Datastream and DEC Prospects Group
U. S. retail up monthly in July & August but momentum has faded as savings rise retail ex autos and real - PCE, ch % ( saar ) [ L ]; personal saving rate (%) right Source : U. S. Department of Commerce.
U. S. factory output easing with I / S in better balance and orders down manufacturing production, ch % ( saar ) [ Left ]; capital goods orders, ch % ( saar ) [ Right ] Source : Thomson / Datastream and DECPG calculations. Mfgr production [ left scale ]
U. S. employment growth stagnant while hourly earnings drop to 1.7% growth ( y / y ) change in non - farm employment (‘000), [ Left ]; hourly earnings ( ch %, year / year ) Source : U. S. Department of Labor. Hourly earnings, [ right scale ] Change in employment [ left scale ]
Japan ’ s 2 nd quarter growth falters on weaker net exports and consumer spending Source : Japan Cabinet Office, MITI. growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points
Japan ’ s export volumes fall to negative ground on weaker Asian demand and stronger yen goods export volumes, ch % ( saar ) [ Left ]; yen per U. S. dollar [ right ] Export volumes [ left scale ] Yen per U. S. dollar [ right scale ] Source : Thomson / Datastream and DECPG calculations.
Euro zone growth mixed across countries GDP growth
Investor expectations of future economic conditions on downward path in Germany Source : World Bank, DEC Prospects Group
Planned budget cuts in Europe (% GDP ) in 2010-2015 Source : CESIFO
U. S. LIBOR easing on expectations of continued loose policy on part of the Fed EURIBOR 6 M USD LIBOR 6 M Source : Thomson / Datastream.
yen / USDUSD / Euro ( inverse ) Euro picks up modestly…. Japan weakens yen at 15- year high vs USD USD per Euro ( inverse ) [ Left ] and Yen per USD [ right ] Source : Thomson / Datastream and DECPG calculations.
Mixed developments in real effective exchange rates real effective exchange rates, indexes, January 2009 = 100 Source : IMF and DEC Prospects Group.
Headline CPI inflation broadly easing save for India and China ” Headline ” consumer price indexes, ch % ( year - on - year ) Source : IMF and DEC Prospects Group.
Focus : Developments in international grain markets
Wheat Global Balance Source : US Department of Agriculture ( September 10, 2010 update ). Note : The years refer to marketing years ( June - May ), i. e., 2011 corresponds to June 2010- May 2011. The 2010 and 2011 figures are estimates and projections, respectively.
Energy and Fertilizer Nominal Price Indices, 2000=100
Countries with the highest dependency on wheat imports relative to their GDP 50 Source : DECPG estimates
Price changes of key staples : April 08 - July 10 Source : Food Price Watch, September 2010, PREM
Calories derived from wheat as a share of total calorie intake Source : FAO
Wheat dependence on selected AFR countries Source : WFP and DECPG staff calculations