A Nowcasting Project for Lake Victoria

Acknowledgement Caroline Bain of UKMO Estelle de Coning of SAWS Brian Golding of UKMO/WMO Steve Goodman of NOAA Marianne Koenig of EUMETSAT Jeannette Onvlee of KNMI Rita Roberts of NCAR Fred Semazzi of UNCSU Alice Soares, SWFDP Jim Wilson of NCAR Many others… WCRP HyVIC SWFDP

Outline The Challenge/Gap What we have/know at this point The Lake Victoria Project Proposal/Concept –Field Project, –Nowcasting System, –Implementation within SWFDP –Capacity Building Status/Next Steps

WMO Executive Council (EC) recommended that a World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project be considered for the Lake Victoria Watershed that would include a test-bed for field campaigns to collect data for research to understand the dynamics over the lake in order to reduce disaster from water spouts, waves, and wind gusts that affect both lake transport and fishermen who rely on the lake for their livelihoods. The EC further noted the potential linkages with the SWFDP for Eastern Africa." WMO Executive Council charge to WWRP EC 2010

Golden Age of Weather Satellites Gap in SWFDP WWRP Charge to WGNR Nowcasting system for Developing Countries Global/Regional Observations Satellite, Lightning, NWP Exploit local data as available Radar-less / optional

Organic Interest.. EUMETSAT UKMO THORPEX HIW HyVic (WCRP) SERVIR (US Aid) …

Overview of what we know about the problem

Semazzi, HyVic Science PlanReports of many deaths! Wind, Wave and Storms are The Significant Navigation Hazards

The terrain is complex and near the equator… 200km Lake Victoria Weak dynamics -:> local influences dominate

Night vs Day

The Lake Surface Temperature may play a role in initiation of thunderstorms Due to the weak dynamics in the tropics, subtle surface features will have a significant impact on convective initiation. Intra-lake breezes may form. VIIRS Temperature, W. Straka Climate Model, Semazzi

Lake Circulations are complex From Semazzi Report, Annex2 Climate modeling of the lake currents show a complex pattern of the mean circulation. Thunderstorm downdrafts interact with this circulation to create hazardous waves and lake conditions.

The Lake Victoria Project Proposal »The Nowcast System »The SWFDP »The Field Project »Capacity Building

Objectives of WWRP LVP 1.Develop a scientific field project to understand the dynamics of the lake and severe thunderstorms 2.Capacity build to establish a research and operational legacy, 3.Develop a prototype sustainable nowcasting system for East Africa, particularly over the Lake 4.Implementation of the nowcasting system within the context of the existing Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project 5.Verification and validation of the nowcasts using the field project. Note: Within SWFDP, WWRP Verification and SERA are already part of that funded project

1. Capacity Building Understanding is not enough, must create a legacy!

Legacy via Capacity Building Training of Highly Qualified Personnel Researchers (DCFDP) Nowcasters Analysts Technical Fellowships Engage within Product Development Nowcasting Workshops Technical Workshops Other

2. SWFDP and Nowcasting SWFDP is there now! Established a path! Regional collaboration/cascading model is the key component to sustainability!

Warning Services for Hazardous Weather Watch (VSRF) –potential or imminent threat of hazardous weather –Prepare for hazardous weather Warning (0-2 hours) –danger of hazardous weather –TAKE ACTION! –Save Lives! –Precision in space (km) and time (minutes) Service Impacts hazard thresholds Smaller regions as needed warnings, Nowcasters needed (prediction / decision-making cultural change) Real-time data and dissemination (MWA) Action statements – vacate region ABC cry wolf syndrome impacts authoritative voice

3. The Envisioned Nowcasting System Satellite Lightning UKMO 4km Model (Radar, Surface, Upper Air) No Radar = NEW CHALLENGE for WGNR!

Satellite Products Lightning Regional NWP A Nowcast System for Lake Victoria! MSG + NWP = Regional Instability Satelliie Instability -> Lightning Long Range Lightning Network

The Tip of the Iceberg

22 Bill Burrows of EC Lightning Forecasts NWP Lightning Forecast Lightning Data

The UKMO 4 km Model

Global UM 4km UM 4 th March 2012: Storm over Lake Victoria caused the deaths of 2 fishermen when a boat capsized The Global UM showed some indication of the event in T+6 forecast The 4km UM showed increased indication of the storm in T+6 forecast Lake Victoria Validation of model: Case study 4 th March 2012 Caroline Bain

4. The Field Project Meteorological Understanding Scientific Validation Statistical Verification See Science Project Overview by Wilson/Roberts 2x 40 page documents (Science Project/Expt Design)

What we dont know… Which thunderstorms produce hazardous winds Relationship of Overshooting Tops and Surface Hazardous winds Mechanism of producing strong winds from thunderstorms Relationship between wind and waves Once we understand, how to identify and predict and not cry wolf What skill is achievable without radar? Accuracy and precision? Need to validate satellite/NWP/Lightning predictions

Field Project Proposal to NSF Red Stars – surveillance radar White Stars – hi res radar, dual- doppler Blue Star 6 – IOS Blue Star 4 – Upper Air Station Yellow – Met Stns

High Sensitivity S Pol Radar dual-pol Doppler radar is needed to monitor the clear air boundaries that initiate convection, the descending downdraft core that generates the strong downdraft winds and then the hazardous surface winds NSF Request

Hi-Resolution dual-doppler radars NSF/Non-NSF Request

Frequent and localized soundings are required to monitor both the updraft and downdraft environments. NSF Request

Integrated Observing System Frequent Soundings Wind Profiler Radiometer RASS for temperature Ceilometer Surface Met Obs Soundings NSF Request

Water Vapor DIAL Lidar Measures humidity profiles to determine the nature of the dry layers that drive the production of hazardous winds Non-NSF Request

Buoys are needed for monitoring the lake conditions Non-NSF Request

Facilities requested to National Science Foundation due to long lead time required in Jan Very Positive Feedback from NSF for 2016 but need non- NSF funding ($8M) for equipment, operating, capacity building, project office, analysis, etc Non-NSF C Band MIT/LL SMART Rs Radiosonde (3) Dial Lidar (2) GPS/GNSS Wind Profilers (2) Surface Stations (?) Doppler Lidar (2) Total Lightning (LMA) Satellite Buoys/Boats NSF S-POL Radar DOWS Integrated Sounding Sys Radionsonde Surface Stations

NSF Reviewer Comment… It is about $1M to deploy S-POL…. buy a commercial radar? Maybe easier to get funding for this rather than science. The technology is low lying fruit. Increases project scope but need to have a significant technical capacity building component for legacy. Better support Climate/WCRP project.

Implementation Strategy

Normal Technology Transfer in Program Mode UnderstandingPrototypeDemonstrationImplementation Field Project Concepts System Development Operations Papers Verification/Impact Capacity Build Lengthy Process and valley of death gaps in technology transfer

Technology Transfer Project Mode Understanding Inception Sat Demonstration Implementation Capacity and Forecast System Build NWP Demonstration No Gaps! Engagement of users

Status Plan presented to East African Community at Arusha SWFDP Meeting (May 2013) Local Champions Identified as Chair and Vice-Chair of EAC Complete Details of Plan/Linkages –ownership of plan by EA Need to fund/request funding HyVIC Reading Meeting Today Thanks to Caroline Bain

Funding …. How do we get connected here? Who? Donors/Stakeholders: African Development Bank, the Embassy of Japan, the Embassy of Belgium, NORAD, USAID, IFAD, UNEP, PACKARD Foundation, the World Meteorological Organisation, the International Finance Corporation, the French Development Agency, DfID, FAO, European Union, and SNV. from Bruce Angle

EU Proposal (25M) Funded? LVBC Feasibility Study 2011 (Semazzi) 18 page document based on LVBC Feasibility

Summary Early Days Have Local Champion Still in conceptualization/formulation phase –Think Big! –Need to learn about cultural issues –Overcome constraints Too early to begin to challenge process Never too early to explore funding

Thank You