1. WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP): a Cross-Cutting Activity involving Multiple TCs and Programmes – What Next? Alice Soares Scientific Officer, Data-processing and Forecasting Systems Geneva, 1 February 2013 WMO; WDS

2. Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011) Implemented through the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) “Implementation of a “Cascading Forecasting Process”, an approach that provides improved access to, and effective use by forecasters of existing and newly developed NWP/EPS products made available by advanced GDPFS Centres, national forecasting and warning services have improved significantly, with increased lead-times and greater reliability.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2011)

3. WMO  Improve Severe Weather Forecasting through the “ Cascading Forecasting Process ” (Global to Regional to National)  Improve lead-time of Warnings  Improve interaction of NMHSs with users  Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems  Improve the skill of products from WMO Operational centres through feedback SWFDP Main Goals

4. SWFDP Development and Implementation: a 4-step cycle  Establish regional partnerships ­Regional management teams; focus on forecasting and warning services of meteorological-related hazards  Plan and develop of prototype demonstration project ­Regional project-specific IP for which the management team is accountable. IP describes team members’ responsibilities, project activities and milestones (typically for 12-18 months)  Implement demonstration project ­Tracking, continuously evaluation, training and reporting  Broaden and sustain successful prototypes ­(return to step 1) Under the Guidance of the Steering Group of the SWFDP

5.  Global NWP centres to provide available NWP/EPS and sat-based products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame;  Regional centres to interpret information received from global centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs;  NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with user communities, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project;  NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services. 5 Global Centres User communities, including Disaster Management authorities NMCsRSMC Pretoria SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process

6. Vision for the SWFDP as an end-to-end, cross- programme collaborative activity (led by the GDPFS) “that engages all WMO programmes that concern the real-time prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards, through their respective technical commissions: from observations, to information exchange, to delivery of services to the public and a range of targeted applications/user sectors, education and training, capacity development and support to LDCs, and to the transfer of relevant promising research outputs into operations.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2011) WMO Strategic Priorities Disaster Risk Reduction Capacity Development GFCS - Climate change adaptation

7. WMO  Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC-TC La R é union)  Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC-TC Fiji)  Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar)  Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries; RFSC Hanoi)  Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries; RSMC-TC New Delhi)  WMO global and regional operational centres (e.g. RSMCs)  42 NMHSs of developing countries (29 of which are LDCs/SIDSs)  Several WMO programmes (i.e. GDPFS, PWS, TCP, DRR, MMO, AgM, SP, ETR, CD, LDC, RP, and WWRP) and technical commissions (i.e. CBS, CAgM, CHy, JCOMM, and CAS) SWFDP Regional Projects

8. SWFDP: a cross-cutting activity involving multiple TCs and Progs, concerning prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards Regional Centre (RSMCs, RFSC, RCCs) Global Centres RSMCs-TC Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products TCP LAM & Guidance Products (risk/probability) GDPFS National Met Centres (Forecast/Warning Bulletins) PWS General Public, media, disaster management authorities Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR) Feedback and Verification PWS, HWR, WCP General Public, media, disaster management authorities Specific User Sectors (Agriculture, Marine, Aviation, etc.) AgM, MMO, AeM, etc. Satellite Imagery and Tools SP Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications AgM, MMO, AeM, WCP, etc. WWRP Research Projects Flash Flood Guidance HWR Regional Centre (RSMCs, RFSC, RCCs) Observing and information systems WIGOS, WIS

9. WMO  Sustain/strengthen existing RSMCs  Expanding the role of existing RSMCs-TC  Establish new regional centres  Infrastructure (development and maintaining the Website)  Global and regional guidance  Global and Regional Training Desks (in addition to the annual training)  National IPs (uptake of NWP/EPS and sat-based products into weather forecasting daily routines of the forecasters and user engagement)  Continuous development - introduce new products and increase use of NWP/EPS in applications of meteorology (Cascading Forecasting Process) SWFDP Regional Centres

10. WMO  Successful recipe – real benefits to developing and least developed countries  High impact, cost effective  Visible operational results – increased visibility, credibility and value of meteorological services  Management framework at regional level (partnerships): collective needs, motivation, buy-on, ownership, continuous learning environment  Accelerated technology transfer from advanced global centres to less capable national centres through the “ Cascading Forecasting Process ”  Increased role of the regional centres in downscaling and tailoring products for practical use by NMHSs  Model/framework can be applied to any time-scales and a range of applications/user sectors SWFDP – Lessons learnt

11. WMO SWFDP – Resources  Regular budget: GDPFS financially supported the SWFDP-related events, including training, while a number of WMO Programmes (e.g. ETR, PWS, TCP, SAT, AgM, WWRP) have collaboratively provided limited funds to support expert participation at some of the SWFDP- related meetings  Support from advanced global centres that provide NWP/EPS and satellite-based products, and the backbone roles played by the regional centres are critical components for the implementation of the SWFDP, which represent in-kind contributions by WMO Members  Extra-budgetary funds from WMO Members, and donor agencies (e.g. World Bank, etc.)  Staff: DPFS (responsible for the overall project), with the collaboration of PWS and AgM

12. Future directions and role of the SWFDP  More countries, new regions (over 100 countries: developing and least developed countries) ~ 12 RSMCs  Hydro-meteorological hazards  Sector-specific hazards (e.g. agriculture, marine, etc.)  Beyond day-5  Vehicle to collect and convey the evolving requirements for the Basic Systems, including to WIGOS and WIS, in the target countries  Vehicle for introducing promising R&D  Cross-programme guidance  Regular budget and extrabudgetary resourses  Project Office

13. What next?  Assist in sustaining the linkages between regional and national centres in their geographical regions; and global to regional  Build upon the lessons learnt through the SWFDP  Increase, the capacity of NMHSs in developing and least developing countries to deliver weather, climate and hydrological forecasting and warning services Consolidate the SWFDP into sustainable operational services (e.g through an ongoing programme to strengthen WMO Operational Centres, particularly RSMCs and RCCs) – aligned with the WMO Capacity Development Strategy (Objective 5)

14. www.wmo.int Thank you for your attention DISCUSSION