1. Page 1 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble David Richardson Met Office, Exeter

2. Page 2 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 Contents  Global Interactive Forecast System concept  The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)  1 st TIGGE Workshop  Future plans  Links to Pacific Experiment The presentation covers the following sections

3. Page 3 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 Traditional forecast system observationsAssimilationForecastusers

4. Page 4 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 Global Interactive Forecast System Initial risk from medium-range global ensemble Forecaster runs ‘sensitive area’ prediction Forecaster requests observations in sensitive area Forecaster requests high resolution regional ensemble Initiate and maintain links with civil protection agencies

5. Page 5 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) A concept for future weather prediction Global  Global participation, global application, global and regional models Interactive  observation-assimilation-forecast-user: all parts of system integrated, adaptive, interactive. Changes according to situation and user needs. We cannot say now what a future Global Interactive Forecast System will be – a goal of THORPEX is to determine this The development, evaluation and testing of a future GIFS will depend on results from all four components of THORPEX

6. Page 6 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)  Framework for international collaboration in development and testing of ensemble prediction systems  Resource for THORPEX research projects  Component of THORPEX Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDPs)  A prototype future Global Interactive Forecast System  Initially develop database of available ensembles, collected in near-real time  Co-ordinate research using this multi-model ensemble data, including interactive aspects

7. Page 7 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 TIGGE Workshop  Workshop: 1-3 March 2005, ECMWF  Address strategy to achieve TIGGE objectives  Focus on user-requirements and infrastructure needed to meet these  Produce outline plan and timetable  60 participants from operational centres and universities worldwide  Report submitted to THORPEX Executive Board and International Core Steering Committee  www.wmo.int/thorpex/publications.html

8. Page 8 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 TIGGE Workshop: aims  Aim: Define user- requirement for TIGGE data  Users  Who?  What for?  How?  When?  Requirements  What data?  Format?  How to access?  Contributors EPS 1EPS 2EPS n NHMSacademicEnd user Predictability science Real-world applications ???

9. Page 9 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 TIGGE infrastructure Phase 1  Data collected in near-real time (via internet ftp) at central TIGGE data archives  Can be implemented now at little cost  Can handle current data volumes within available network and storage capabilities TIGGE Centre A EPS 1EPS 2EPS n NHMSacademicEnd user TIGGE Centre B Predictability science Real-world applications

10. Page 10 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 TIGGE infrastructure Phase 2  Data distributed over several repositories  But keep efficient and transparent user access  Flexible – minimise data transfers  Needs substantial software development  Coordination with WMO Information System  Requires additional funding EPS 1EPS 2EPS n NHMSacademicEnd user Predictability science Real-world applications Portal to distributed (virtual) archive

11. Page 11 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 Access and use of TIGGE data Aims for TIGGE data policy:  TIGGE data available to all users for research purposes (efficient approval for data access)  User-friendly interface for access to the central archives (including for subsets of ensemble data)  Promote open-source sharing of post-processing software (calibration, combination, decision-making) to maximise benefit for both researchers and end-users  Address issue of real-time access to data, in particular for demonstration projects and field experiments

12. Page 12 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 TIGGE Plans  Phase 1:  Central TIGGE archives: ECMWF (NCAR, CMA)  For ECMWF: funded within existing resources  Technical plan: July 2005  Initial infrastructure development: Jan 2006  Early 2006: TIGGE data archives will begin collecting available ensemble contributions in near-real time  2007-08: TIGGE available for THORPEX support to demonstration projects (IPY, Beijing 2008 Olympics regional EPS, Pacific THORPEX Experiment)  Phase 2:  distributed archive  Coordinate with WMO Information System plans  ECMWF will lead bid for FP6 funding

13. Page 13 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 TIGGE and Pacific Predictability Experiment  Predictability studies – inter-comparison of different available ensemble systems  Are all models equally poor over W N America?  Are better models still relatively worse here than elsewhere?  Are analyses relatively worse over Pacific?  Does better use of satellite data improve performance?  Is predictability intrinsically low?  How important is model error?

14. Page 14 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 TIGGE and Pacific Predictability Experiment  Predictability studies – inter-comparison of different available ensemble systems  Field campaign support  Real-time access to global TIGGE ensemble forecasts  Advance warning of potential significant events  Sensitive area predictions incorporated in TIGGE infrastructure (some SAP also directly use TIGGE ensembles)  Regional ensembles  Boundary conditions from global TIGGE ensembles  Regional ensembles into TIGGE archives  Co-ordinated inter-comparison of performance  Global TIGGE predictions of when to run regional/mesoscale ensembles

15. Page 15 Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005© Crown copyright 2005 Northern hemisphere 500 hPa ACC  Impact of removing most in-situ observations  COMB  operational Met Office system  BASE  All satellite data  GUAN radiosonde  GSN land stations (pressure only)  Ocean buoy data (no ships)