INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING AS A SYSTEMIC INSTRUMENT FOR POLICY DESIGN Ahlqvist, Toni, Valovirta, Ville & Loikkanen, Torsti VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING... Background Systemicity, foresight and policy rationales Systemicity – Organizations participating in the emergence, diffusion and embedding innovations, e.g. universities, public and private R&D organisations, enterprises, intermediate organisations (e.g. Smits et al. 2010) –Technological systems, referring to networks of agents interacting in a specific economic/industrial area under a particular institutional infrastructure or a set of infrastructures (e.g. Carlsson & Stankiewicz 1991) – Systemic interactions of technologies and innovations, e.g. socio- technological landscapes, socio-technical regimes, niche-level innovations (Geels 2004) Systemicity and foresight – Different functions of foresight (e.g. Da Costa et al. 2008; Weber et al. 2009) – Policy rationales (e.g. Georghiou & Keenan 2006) Transition management – Multi-level perspective of transition management (e.g. Rotmans et al. 2001)

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING... Emergence of innovation policy roadmapping Integrating perspectives of the case studies Varied cases paved to road towards the emergence of innovation policy roadmapping Three examples, similar needs 1) Cases dealt with local needs for strategic intervention in a situation of potential lock-in and limited information 2) Cases were realised in systemic settings that highlighted interrelations, feedback loops, multidirectional causalities etc. 3) A need to form policy-type, synthesising statements and directions on the basis of the information produced by the projects

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING... Using roadmaps in strategy processes 5. Identifying single strategic elements in roadmap structure 1. Creation of a common vision 4. Visionary strategizing: aligning societal drivers, markets, solutions and technologies in a timeframe 6. Identifying logical temporal sequences on a topic, e.g. technologies 2. Identifying societal needs that should guide the technological development 3. Demand articulation: description of common understanding about future societal and market needs

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING... Emergence of innovation policy roadmapping Case I: Saimaa Science Park (SSP) Focus in material and environmental technologies – Identification of key niches in these technology fields – Building capabilities for market creation in these technology fields Project tried to come to terms with spatial relations and regional specificities of the economy, the uneven distribution of resources and the future-oriented activities that would be required to re-direct the regional capacities This project also initiated an expert-based assessment process for evaluating emerging technologies, markets and technology risk

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING... Emergence of innovation policy roadmapping Case I: Saimaa Science Park (SSP)

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING... Emergence of innovation policy roadmapping Case II: Roadmap for Spanish natural gas company A technology roadmap study on in the field of gas transportation and distribution for the company distributing natural gas primarily for the households in the Northern Spain Future oriented analysis of drivers, products and markets, and technologies in the area of gas transportation and distribution In collaboration with the local business consulting company having a long cooperation background with the natural gas company Various relevant aspects of different technology fields related, for example to coating of gas pipelines, smart grids, gas transportation techniques, energy markets and life cycle perspectives

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING... Emergence of innovation policy roadmapping Case III: Victoria Technology Roadmap The purpose of the Victoria Technology Roadmap was to identify key technological trends which can provide sustainable competitive advantage for the region in the future The overall aim was to build a synthesising picture of the effects of emerging technologies and technology convergence in the region of Victoria, Australia, until the year 2020 The project utilised roadmapping methodology to assess the impacts of emerging technologies and their convergence on the industrial structures in the Victoria region A specific outcome was policy recommendations, conclusions and related actions on the basis of the roadmapping process Nine economic sectors were analysed in detail and roadmapped in the project

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING... Innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM) Brief outline Aims at systematic analysis of new and future-oriented topics and ideas that could spring either from technological development, policy practices or more generic societal development Method could also be used for the identification and framing of radical innovations IPRM integrates the approach of technology foresight with system theoretical thinking, and is built for exploration of links between technological and societal developments There are two levels of inspection in IPRM: – the level of systemic transformation (transformation roadmap) – the level technologies and enablers (technology roadmaps)

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING... Innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM) Systemic transformation roadmap (STRM)

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING... Innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM) Technology roadmap (TRM)

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING... Innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM) Connections between STRM and TRMs

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING... Conclusions: policy instruments and roadmapping Roadmap elementPolicies Vision - Facilitating joint vision setting through strategy processes and foresighting Drivers - Policies to articulate future demand Markets - Policies aiming to facilitate creation of new markets through o regulation o taxes - Creating demand for new products through public procurement - Support for adoption of new technologies (e.g. through subsidies for IT investments) - Support for export activities and inward investments Products and solutions - Policies aiming to facilitate commercialization of public research and technology development - Policies providing validation and feasibility assessment of new technologies - Creating demonstration and piloting environments for new technologies - Setting product certification and labelling schemes and requirements Technologies - Public funding for R&D and innovation - Supporting collaborative R&D - Support for technical standardization - IPR regulation - Provision of public technical infrastructure

INNOVATION POLICY ROADMAPPING... Conclusions: roadmaps and systemic rationale of foresight Innovation policy roadmapping contributes to enhancing systemic benefits of foresight in an innovation system – Our conclusions support the views of Georghiou and Keenan (2006) who emphasise the systemic rationale of foresight Potential benefits of innovation policy roadmapping – Case studies show that roadmapping is useful in various issues of strategic intervention, e.g. potential lock-ins, systemic interdependencies and provision of policy conclusions – The success of innovations is often dependent on the emergence of other complementary technologies, products and services – Diffusion of innovations often depends on changes in infrastructure, information systems, organisational practices and social institutions – Visionary perspective: strategic guidance for identifying the steps towards a vision – Nuanced perspective of temporal sequencing of the evolution of technology and innovation – Selection of policy instruments according to the level of maturity of the markets