1. Towards strategic management of complex systemic innovation environments: Integrating foresight, assessment, system dynamic modelling and societal embedding into a coherent model Eu-SPRI Conference 2012: Towards Transformative Governance? Responses to mission-oriented innovation policy paradigms 12/13 June 2012, Karlsruhe Mika Nieminen, Toni Ahlqvist, Anu Tuominen & Heidi Auvinen VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

2. 2 11/06/2014 Contents 1.Why do we need new methods? 2.Theoretical footing 3.Model 4.Case example 5.Summary Changing the date: View – Slide Master – change the date on the slide master uppermost

3. 3 11/06/2014 Why do we need new methods? There is a need for management models and tools to aid strategic decision-making in complex socio-technical environments Why? The growth of a social complexity Societal problems have became increasingly complex (e.g. Grand Challenges) and interdependency in social systems is increasing Also our understanding of society has become more complex. Technologies are increasingly convergent and hybrid by nature Technologies are interlinked and build up increasingly complex technological systems and business ecosystems The development of systems is based on complex interaction between people, structures, and technologies Thus, the traditional technology push or supply side policies do not function any more This accentuates the need for horizontal decision-making and policy planning The decisions made at one policy sector are interlinked to the processes of the other sectors and therefore innovation policy cannot be limited to only one sector or a silo

4. 4 11/06/2014 Why do we need new methods? In order to tackle with the increasing complexity of socio-technical environments we need: Methods which strengthen horizontal approaches Steering mechanisms which are adaptive and able to respond to the rapidly changing situations Approaches which support strategic thinking and interlink activities with a view of strategic management

5. 5 11/06/2014 Theoretical footing Complex social systems theory Self-organizing, adaptive and learning systems Multi-level perspective on socio-technical change Interaction of landscape, regime and niche levels Transition management Management of societal transition towards more sustainable directions Idea of strategic intelligence Complementary use of information for strategic management and decision-making

6. 6 11/06/2014 Value added of the different approaches in the model Objectives/ Rationale for the data OutcomesTools Foresight Forward-looking data and dynamic, shared knowledge creation processes Supports strategic choices of alternative technological development paths Promotes networking of experts Contributes to insights and shared visions of future developments and consequent consensus of and commitment to future investments Roadmaps Scenarios Facilitated vision building System assessment Analysing the dynamics of the system elements and their development with a special view on impacts. Analysis of the current status of the system e.g. path dependencies, windows of opportunities Identification of system elements and their dynamics Strategic and operational targets to support policy implementation Future-oriented impact assessment of policy measures Follow-up of system development Evaluation Monitoring Network analysis Ex-ante, mid-term and ex-post assessment System dynamic modelling To solve a particular policy problem The simulation model is theory of the system, explaining its behaviour endogenously through feedbacks Model results are used to design good and robust policies Modelling Societal embedding Facilitating development and introduction of new sustainable innovations Active and continuous dialogue among actors who set conditions for development and diffusion of innovations E.g. network building, and facilitating problem solution

7. Landscape Regime Niche Time Foresight Modelling Assessment Societal embedding Increased strategic intelligence Modified from original: Geels 2002

8. 8 11/06/2014 Generic knowledge creation structure Open technology spectrum Partially focused technology spectrum Focused technology spectrum Open challenge spectrum Partially focused challenge spectrum Focused challenge spectrum CASE TYPE I: Society Multiple potential angles Multiple rule frames and structures, multiple contexts Multiple value bases Example: extensive foresight exercise CASE TYPE II: Sector or cluster Bounded socio- technological system Several strategic options Entities are partially bound by similar rules and structures that condition differing contexts Entities are under alike pressures from the action environment CASE TYPE III: Organisation Several strategic options Bounded context Internal activity cultures CONTEXTUAL ORIENTATION TECHNOLOGICAL ORIENTATION

9. 9 11/06/2014 Characterisation of the case types Case type I: Society Case type II: Sector or cluster Case type III: Organisation CoreIdentification of challenges Scoping of imaginable socio-technological solutions Initiation and channelling of the societal transformation process Identification and evaluation of potential socio-technological solutions Charting strategic options for a sector or a cluster Engaging key actors Embedding and implementing of a socio-technological solution in a context Endorsing strategic decision-making at the points of transformation Integration of three knowledge forms (foresight knowledge, modelling knowledge, assessment knowledge) Foresight oriented Modelling knowledge is integral part of the process and (potentially) a way depict results of foresight (see separate slide) Assessment knowledge (e.g. indicators) is an integral part of the process, particularly when defining the present state of the art Linkage to the embedding: the same actors in the process are the core actors of the embedding Foresight, modelling and assessment are somewhat balanced Assessment knowledge is in balance with foresight and modelling knowledge, e.g. path dependencies and systemic lock-ins Foresight means primarily the production of visionary solutions in a system Embedding is in a key role Foresight, modelling and assessment endorse the setting for the embedding

10. 10 11/06/2014 Characterisation of the case types Case type I: Society Case type II: Sector or cluster Case type III: Organisation Process emphases (examples) Visionary process Emphasis on imaginable futures and the formation of explorative visions Backcasting orientation Mapping the futures from the present Starts with the existing socio- technological structures and solutions Driver oriented process Starts with present understanding of the grand challenges Fixing the process against this view Analysis of a socio- technological system, e.g. sector Analysis of a specific activity environment, e.g. market Production of technological alternatives Technology models; modelling is in a key role Assessment of the potential of technology models Based on panels Plausibility; maturity; market potential; year of realisation Co-creation of the socio-technological solutions with the key actors Identification of key actor and topics; mobilisation; activation; empowerment Mapping the organisational dynamics and tensions Different frames of interpretation Implementation of the socio-technological solution Process target has evolved during the process of co- creation and therefore the implementation phase is important

11. 11 11/06/2014 Frame for assessing scale and methods 12 3 4 Short duration Long duration BroadNarrow

12. 12 11/06/2014 Case type 1: Society 1) Broad, long duration Duration ca. 1 year Ca. 50-100 experts Back-office Driver analyses (PESTEVL; matrices…); workshops; questionnaires Delfoi, scenarios, roadmaps, modelling etc. Example: Broad and explorative foresight exercise, like Roadmap for bioeconomy 2) Narrow, long duration Duration could be up to three years Quite focused expert panel Example: Monitoring a trend, e.g. TrendChart 3) Narrow, short duration Duration ca. 1 month to 4 months Ca. 30 experts Focused roadmap or a model Focused drivers and technologies Example: Focused roadmap on a single energy source 4) Broad, short duration Condensed version of the option 1 Duration ca. 4 months to 6 months Several (5-7) researchers involved Activities simultaneously on multiple fronts

13. 13 11/06/2014 Case type 2: Sector or a cluster 1) Broad, long duration Duration ca. 1 year Ca. 50-100 experts Interviews; workshops; document analysis; statistics; modelling Example: Sectoral foresight exercise, like Renewable energy sources in the traffic system 2) Narrow, long duration Duration could be up to three years Quite focused expert panel Example: Monitoring sectoral indicators 3) Narrow, short duration Duration ca. 1 month to 4 months Ca. 30 experts Focused roadmap or a model Focused drivers and technologies Example: Focused SHOK foresight or an assessment 4) Broad, short duration Condensed version of the option 1 Duration ca. 4 months to 6 months Several (5-7) researchers involved Activities simultaneously on multiple fronts

14. 14 11/06/2014 Case type 3: Organisation 1) Broad, long duration Duration max 3 years Ca. 50-100 experts Emphasis on embedding Foresight and assessment knowledge endorse the process Modelling the health case system Qualitative methods: diaries and organisational narratives Example: Implementation of a technological innovation in a health sector 2) Narrow, long duration Long duration Example: Monitoring the results of embedding and implementation 3) Narrow, short duration Duration ca. 1 month to 4 months Example: Training sessions at the organisation, maybe even embedding in a small organisation and a limited cases 4) Broad, short duration More extensive training sessions

15. 15 11/06/2014 CASE: EMISSION FREE TRANSPORT IN CITIES 2050

16. 16 11/06/2014 Socio-technical frame for transport system

17. 17 11/06/2014 Questions to be answered with the case –study 1.What kinds of societal transitions are required to reach the principle vision? Stakeholders involved, changes and transitions required, impacts and implications… 2.How can the required transitions be made possible / assisted / sped up? Vision paths, policies… 3.How can the collection of approaches (Foresight - Modelling - Impact assessment – Embedding) be put into use to analyse and align required transitions?

18. 18 11/06/2014 Integrating different approaches into a coherent model Foresight Principle vision emission free transport in cities in 2050 (EU White Paper on transport) Vision paths three alternative ways to make it happen: 1.electric vehicles 2.public transport 3.biofuels. Impact assessment Identification of potential policy instruments and their impacts to reach the vision

19. 19 11/06/2014 Integrating different approaches into a coherent model System dynamic modelling Modelling of the transport system and the impacts of policy instruments Dimensions to be modelled: environmental concerns developing key technologies and complementary technologies passenger transport, incl. public transport user choices urban environments economic aspects societal issues

20. 20 11/06/2014

21. 21 11/06/2014 System dynamic model of a transport system

22. 22 11/06/2014 5. Summary Increasing complexity necessitates horizontal policy-making, which takes into account the systemic nature of innovation environments Complex & multi-level information needs We need to know the current status of the system (functional assessment) & the possible future options (foresight) to create commonly shared policy & innovation options (foresight & societal embedding); To have more precise information on the complex causal relationships & feedback loops within the system in order to anticipate consequenses of policy actions (system dynamic modelling) The proposed approach attempts systematically to combine the above mentioned approaches into a coherent whole

23. 23 11/06/2014 5. Summary (cont.) Challenging multi-approach project Work is still in progress Current status: A framework for combining approches in various societal & innovation situations created Testing started in three different cases (bio-economy, social & health care; emission free transport) Tailor-made combination of approaches for each case Emission free transport as an example

24. 24 11/06/2014 VTT - 70 years of technology for business and society Final slide is optional in VTTs internal presentations