 Population  Sample  Bias/Error  Sampling Error  Coverage Error  Non-Response  Response Bias  Measurement Error

 Population  Sample  Bias/Error  Sampling Error  Coverage Error  Non-Response  Response Bias  Measurement Error

 Population  Sample  Error/Bias  Sampling Error  Coverage Error  Non-Response  Response Bias  Measurement Error

Question # 1  Which of these statements comes closest to your opinion? Abortion is the same thing as murdering a child, or abortion is not murder because a fetus isn’t really a person.  Murder55%  Not murder35  Don’t know, not ascertained10

Question # 2  Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Abortion sometimes is the best course in a bad situation.  Agree66%  Disagree26  Don’t know, not ascertained 8

Question # 3:  What do you think about abortion? Should it be legal as it is now, legal only in such cases as saving the life of the mother, rape, or incest, or should it not be permitted at all?  Legal as is now 40%  Legal only to save mother, rape, incest40  Not permitted16  Don’t know, no answer 4

 1928 & 1932 polls had been successful  1936 contest seemed competitive

 44 Million potential voters  10 Million ballots distributed  2.4 Million returned  Estimated election results:  FDR 43%  Alf Landon 57%

 Real election results:  FDR 62%  Landon 38%

 Afterward Gallup dominated polling

 quota sampling  Prediction: Truman 44.5% (lose)  Real election results: Truman 49.9 (win)

Holocaust Survey Mishap Roper Organization (1992): Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?  (65%) Impossible it never happened  (12%) Don't know  (22%) Possible it never happened  Confusing question

(March 1994) – G allup Organization Does it seem possible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened or do you feel certain that it happened?  (91%) Certain it happened  (8%) Don't know  (1%) Possible it never happened

Leading questions Double-barreled questions Push polls

Memory Ignorance Social desirability

Would you favor or oppose federal assistance to industries in economic trouble? Would you favor or oppose a federal "bailout" of industries in economic trouble?

Would you favor or oppose cutting federal aid to the needy in order to cut federal spending? Would you favor or oppose cutting welfare programs in order to cut federal spending?

Governmental Structure 39% did not know Republicans took over the U.S. House in 1994 Only 26% knew a U.S. Senator served for 6 years Only half knew the Republicans were more conservative than the Democrats Only half knew SCOTUS has last say on whether a law is constitutional Only 6% could name Rehnquist as the Chief Justice Only 34% could name Dole as the Senate Majority Leader Only 53% could name Gingrich as the House Speaker Only 60% could name Gore as the Vice President Social Conditions 59% thought elderly poverty had increased over 20 years; it had dropped sharply 91% thought violent crime had increased from ; it had dropped significantly 69% thought the budget deficit had increased from despite negotiated decreases Government Policies 58% thought we spent more on Foreign Aid than Medicare 32% thought government policy had made this situation worse, despite large handouts

 Rachel Maddow (and others): 72% of Foxnews viewers oppose the Civil Rights Act  Is this an accurate depiction?

 Title I: Equal Application of Voter Registration Standards  Title II: No discrimination in “public accommodations engaged in interstate commerce”  Title III: Sub-National Governments cannot ban access to public facilities based on race, gender, religion, ethnicity  Title IV: Attorney General can sue to enforce desegregation  Title V: Expanded powers of Civil Rights Commission  Title VI: No discrimination by government agencies that receive federal funding

 Do you support the Civil Rights Act of 1964?  Yes: 28%  No: 72% Would the conclusion “72% of Foxnews viewers oppose Civil Rights Act” be accurate?

 A national survey:  52% favor Obama  48% favor McCain  +/- 3% margin of error

 Obama could be supported by as low as 49%  McCain could be favored by as high as 51%  Does it makes sense to use a national opinion poll to predict winners?