1. Public Opinion and Polling American Government Bowling Green High School

2. What is Public Opinion? It is the collection of individual opinions toward issues or objects of general interest to a significant number of people.

3. Characteristics of Public Opinion Direction  Favor or oppose? Intensity  How strong is your opinion? Stability  Does your opinion change over time? (How stable is it?) Latency  How well formed are your opinions? Centrality  How important is this issue to you?

4. Group differences in public opinion Age Gender Race Religion Education Church Attendance Marital Status Political Party Ideology

5. What influences opinion? Internal (Personal)  Age  Gender  Race  Religious Beliefs External  Family  Peers  School  Events  Media

6. What do Americans know about Politics? Consider a Classic Citizen:  An individual who is highly politically informed, active, and engaged. Public opinion in the U.S. is usually characterized as:  Uninformed  Unstable  Unconnected

7. What do Americans know about Politics? National Polls: 20% could name two 1 st Amendment Rights (2003) 25% knew the length of Senator’s term (2003) 76% knew which party controls House (2007) 37% knew U.S. has lower taxes than Europe (2003) 37% chief justice is conservative (2007)

8. What do Americans know about Politics? 2004 NES: Ideology Placement of Candidates  5.5% replied that GW Bush was Extremely Liberal  2.5% replied that John Kerry was Extremely Conservative  4% replied that Ralph Nader was Extremely Conservative

9. What do Americans know?

10. How do we get info about Public Opinion? Voting Focus Groups (10-25 people) Contacting Legislators In-Depth Interviews Experiments Sampling (Polling)  Tool of Choice…

11. What did the polls say right before the election? Election Tracker: Candidate Polling - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com Election Tracker: Candidate Polling - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com

12. Polling Good to have a sample (subgroup of the population) of 900-1200 people. It’s a snapshot in time Can be used to collect info or persuade people to change candidates.

13. Why Are Surveys Sometimes Wrong? Some are not “wrong,” just too close to call (within margin of error). Some came down to a question of sampling (perhaps it wasn’t random or representative. This happens frequently – famously:  Dewey / Truman 1948  Literary Digest 1936

14. The Purpose of Sampling: The elements of the sample need to accurately portray the elements of the population. In other words, we want to get as close as possible to the truth, where the truth is usually unknown. We want to do as little work (and expend as few resources) as possible.

15. Foundations of Scientific Polling Probability Sampling: the method by which you draw the sample of the population, the group you are going to question for the poll.  resemble the larger population to the greatest extent possible.  everyone in the population should have the same probability of being selected for the poll.

16. Probability Samples Cluster Sample:  Often used for surveys of geographical areas.  Example: Start with a list of counties in Missouri. Randomly sample ten counties. List all towns in those ten counties. Randomly sample towns. List blocks in towns. Randomly sample blocks. Interview houses on those blocks.

17. Relationship Between Sample Size & Margin of Error Margin of Error: Range around a sample statistic within which the population parameter is likely to fall. Assuming a normal sampling distribution: Sample SizeMargin of Error 100+/- 11% 400+/- 6% 1000+/- 4% 1500+/- 3% 4000+/- 2%

18. Relationship Between Sample Size & Margin of Error Example: 50% of Americans approve of the way President Bush is handling his job as president (with a margin of error of +/- 4%). We can conclude that:  The sample has 1000 people.  That the range of approval is 46-54%.

19. Relationship Between Sample Size & Margin of Error Example: 23% of Americans approve of the way President Bush is handling the Iraq War (with a margin of error of +/- 3%). We can conclude that:  The sample has 1500 people.  That the range of approval is 20-26%.

20. Critics… Some are skeptical as to how representative a sample can really be of the real population, but it is statistically proved. Let’s see an mini example…

21. © 2007 Mars, Incorporated and its Affiliates© 2007 Mars, Incorporated and its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. What colors come in your bag?

22. Types of Surveys Face-to-face (in-person interview) Telephone Self-administered Mail Internet

23. Face-to-Face Surveys Pros:  Better quality & richness of responses  More completed surveys  Higher response rates Cons:  COST!!!!  Variance across interviewers  Takes great amount of time to administer

24. Telephone Surveys Pros:  Cheap  Easy to administer  Higher uniformity among interviewers  Less intrusive to respondents Cons:  Lower response rates  Lower quality of responses Higher non-response More acquiescing More socially-desirable responses

25. Self-Administered Mail Surveys Pros:  Cheap  No interviewer bias  Respondents can do it when they choose  Best at getting at illicit or illegal behavior Cons  Very low response rate  Don’t know who is responding

26. Internet Surveys Pros  Potentially cheap  Potentially respondents  Easier data collection Cons  Limited access  Often non-random sample  Multiple entries  Self-selection

27. Survey Design: Questions

28. Question Wording: Loaded Questions Often found in polls done by interest groups, who are pushing a certain agenda. 4 kinds of loaded questions:  Compound  Ambiguous  Double negative  Leading

29. Question Wording: Loaded Questions Compound Questions:  A question that actually asks two questions, but the respondent can only give one answer. Compound Questions:  Examples – “Do you still beat your wife?” “Do you still do illegal drugs?” “Do you think that Americans realize how widespread the AIDS epidemic has become, and that the worst is still to come?” “Do you believe that abortion is murder and that all abortion providers should be punished with the death penalty?  Better version – break into two questions

30. Question Wording: Loaded Questions Ambiguous Questions:  Question is vague or difficult to exactly interpret.  Very common problem.  Examples – “How many children do you have?” “What is your income?” “Have you taken a vacation in the past few years?”

31. Question Wording: Loaded Questions Ambiguous Questions:  Better Versions – “How many children do you have currently living with you?” “What is your annual gross salary?” “Have you taken a vacation in the past three years outside of your city?”

32. Question Wording: Loaded Questions Double Negative Questions:  Questions that employ two negatives to express a single negation.  Confuses respondents.  Example – “Does it seem possible or impossible to you that the Holocaust never happened?”  Better Version – “Does it seem possible to you that the Holocaust never happened, or are you certain that it happened?”

33. Question Wording: Loaded Questions Leading Questions:  Questions designed to get a specific response.  Encourages respondents to agree with the researchers’ expectation.  Often uses incorrect information and statements.  Examples – “Do you agree that the U.S. needs socialized medicine to solve its health care problems?” “Most people we talk to think that President Bush’s tax cuts should be permanent, do you agree?”

34. Question Wording: Loaded Questions Leading Questions:  Better Versions – “Do you agree that the U.S. needs more government intervention to solve its health care problems?” “Some people we talk to think that President Bush’s tax cuts should be permanent. Other people think that they shouldn’t be permanent. Where do you stand?”

35. Question Wording: Loaded Questions Leading Questions:  Also, related is Push Polls “Polls” done to change people’s views on something (like candidates).  Example – 2000 South Carolina Republican Primary “You may or may not know that John McCain has an illegitimate black child. Does that make you more or less likely to vote for him?”

36. Question Responses: Quality of Responses Example of phrasing: “Should money from the budget surplus be used for tax cuts, or for spending on government programs?” 60% say tax cut “Should money from the budget surplus be used for tax cuts, or for spending on programs for education, the environment, health care, crime-fighting, and military defense? 22% say tax cut

37. 5 things to consider in evaluating a poll: 1. Who sponsored the survey? 2. The size of the sample 3. The method used to collect the data 4. The actual questions 5. Your own review of the numbers

38. Your Turn… Most people we talk to think the U.S. should drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, what do you think? Do you agree or disagree that most Americans don’t realize how capable Iran is at making nuclear weapons, and that the U.S. will need to invade them?

39. Your Turn… Syria is known to sponsor terrorism, don’t you agree that we should bomb them? Evaluate Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq – horrific or the best ever? Have you stopped smoking crack this week, or was it last week?

40. What do polls say now? CNN Political Ticker