1. Political Socialization Political socialization is a lifelong process through which an individual acquires opinions through contact with many different agents and group identifications. What are the factors that shape political attitudes?

2. Political Socialization factors: Family Gender Religion Education Socio-economic class Race and ethnicity Geographic region Media

3. Public Opinion What is public opinion? How do politicians gauge public opinion? – Direct experience Letters, phone calls, e-mail, direct contact with constituents in meetings and other public appearances – Public opinion surveys or polls

4. Public Opinion Polling Scientific polling developed in the 1930s Challenges of polling – Sample size – Sample bias – Questions

5. Public Opinion Polling Sample – The portion of the population surveyed on an issue Sample size – 1,000 to 2,000 can represent 300 million Americans – Sampling error “Margin of error” The larger the sample, the smaller the sampling error Typically + or – 3 percent George Gallup: “Okay, next time you go for a blood test, tell them to take it all.”

6. Public Opinion Polling Random sample – Every individual in the population group being polled has an equal chance of being selected – Samples can be of nation as a whole or more narrow groups, such as “likely voters,” members of one party or age group, residents of one state or congressional district, etc. – Achievable via random digit dialing today because 95% of households have telephones

7. Public Opinion Polling Sample bias – The effect of having a sample that does not represent all segments of the population being polled

9. What happened? Just before the election of 1948, Gallup gave the election to Dewey by 49.5 to 44.5% and Roper gave Dewey 52.2 to 37.1% for Truman. But when the election was over, Truman had beat Dewey for re-election by over 2 million votes—28 states and 303 electoral votes to Dewey’s 16 states and 189 electoral votes. What was wrong with the polling?

10. What was wrong with the polling in the 1948 election? The pollsters did their last poll app. 2 weeks before the election—enough for some voters to change their minds The “undecideds” didn’t vote as expected. Often, “undecideds” go with the incumbent (in this case, Truman) Sampling errors—survey taken over the phone—household telephones, at the time, were limited to the upper class

11. Public Opinion Polling Sample bias – How might the following result in sample bias? Calling survey participants on the phone only from Noon until 3PM. Asking survey participants to call in their vote. Polling only a retirement home to gauge the nation’s views on health care. Asking bald men what kind of shampoo they prefer. Polling only residents listed in the City of Atlanta telephone book. Going door-to-door in an affluent suburb in the middle of the day.

12. Public Opinion Polling Questions – Respondents should be asked about things they know and have thought about “Public Affairs Act of 1975” experiment Study: Only 10 percent of people will say “I don’t know.”

13. Types of Public Opinion Polls National polls – Effort to measure national opinion within a period of time – Major examples: ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News/New York Times, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, CNN/USA Today/Gallup, Los Angeles Times poll

14. Types of Public Opinion Polls Campaign polls – Benchmark poll Conducted by candidates for public office Taken within state or district to gather baseline information about attitudes toward candidate Instrumental in designing campaign strategy – Tracking poll Conducted by campaigns and media Follow changes in attitudes toward candidates Help revise campaign strategy if necessary

15. Types of Public Opinion Polls – Exit polls Surveys of voters at polling stations on election day Often used by news agencies to “call” an election for one candidate or another

16. Types of Public Opinion Polls – Exit polls Controversies – 1980 – NBC announced Reagan the winner before polls in the West had closed. – 2000 -- Florida called for Al Gore by several networks in 2000 election, then switched to George W. Bush, then announced the vote was too close to call. – 2004 – Even though networks hid results of exit polls until after close of all polls, results of poll leaked, Kerry seemed ahead.

17. Types of Public Opinion Polls – Exit polls Controversies – Defenders of exit polling: Not intended to predict winner, just understand why people voted the way they did

18. Types of Public Opinion Polls Pseudo-polls – Self-selection polls E.g. viewer or listener call-in polls, Internet polls What are the limitations of this kind of polling?

19. Types of Public Opinion Polls Pseudo-polls – Push polls Example from Florida: – “Please tell me if you would be more or less likely to vote for Lt. Governor Buddy MacKay if you knew that Lt. Gov Buddy MacKay plans to implement a new early-release program for violent offenders who have served a mere 60 percent of their sentences if he is elected governor.” – A false claim What is the goal of this kind of poll?

20. Public Opinion “I really don't worry about polls or focus groups. I do what I think is right.” – George W. Bush “Unless mass views have some place in the shaping of policy, all talk about democracy is nonsense” – V.O. Key

21. Public Opinion Critics of public opinion polling – Bandwagon effect – Politicians follow rather than lead – Easily manipulated to achieve desired results Supporters of polling – Some studies show that politicians use polls to help win support for their policies, not to follow – Politicians should pay attention to polls; give more direct power to the people. – How else can politicians gauge public opinion and then represent the public? Which side do you agree with more?

22. Public Opinion Polling Examine case studies on polling