1. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Chapter 5 PUBLIC OPINION

2. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 The Vietnam War and the Public Background Tonkin Gulf incident and escalation of the war Public reaction Escalation of antiwar sentiment Richard Nixon elected president in 1968

3. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 The Vietnam War and the Public This story illustrates: –How government officials can sometimes lead or manipulate public opinion –How events and circumstances affect opinion –How the press can influence public opinion –How public opinion can have a strong impact on policymaking, even on foreign policy

4. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Democracy and Public Opinion Public opinion: the political attitudes expressed by ordinary citizens Evaluating democracy: how closely does government policy correspond to the expressed wishes of its citizens?

5. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Democracy and Public Opinion Many leading political theorists doubt the wisdom of the public Modern survey research shows ignorance and apathy –non-attitudes Federal officials also seem to doubt the wisdom of public opinion

6. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Measuring Public Opinion The views of acquaintances, letter writers, rally audiences, and callers on radio talk shows do not represent the public as a whole. Most of the guesswork can now be eliminated by conducting an opinion poll or sample survey.

7. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Measuring Public Opinion Importance of random sampling Traditional and emerging problems in political polling –wording –“closed-ended” or “forced-choice” questions –decreased willingness of Americans to participate in surveys –increased use of “caller ID” to screen pollster calls –difficulty of surveying people who rely on cell phones

8. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Learning Political Beliefs and Attitudes: Political Socialization family schools popular culture college education major events news media marriage retirement

9. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 How People Differ Although it is possible to discuss American public opinion as a collective whole, there are important distinctions among different sorts of people in different circumstances. Race and ethnicity –African Americans –Hispanics –Asian Americans –White Ethnics

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11. How People Differ Religion –Catholics –Jews –Protestants Region Social class

12. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 How People Differ Education Gender Age

13. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Are the People Fit to Rule? Modern survey results consistently show that most Americans do not know or care a lot about politics. People have particular trouble with technical terms, abbreviations, and geography. The things that most Americans don’t know may not be vital. Lack of detailed knowledge or ideology does not mean that public opinion is unstable or irrelevant.

14. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Collective Knowledge and Stability Americans’ collective policy preferences are very stable over a long period of time. Recent research indicates that Americans’ collective policy preferences react fairly sensibly to events.

15. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 The Content of Collective Public Opinion The system in general –Significant level of public confidence –Political efficacy — the public’s feelings about whether the government pays any attention to ordinary people, and whether involvement such as voting has any effect after decades of steady decline, feelings of political efficacy have steadily improved since the mid-1990s

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17. Government Performance Presidential approval rating –tends to fluctuate in response to particular events –the state of the economy is especially important

18. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Party Identification the sense of belonging to a party 1930s-1990s: more Americans identified themselves as Democrats than Republicans Since September 11, 2001, an equal number of Americans have identified themselves as Democrats and Republicans Party balance among voters has important effects on who rules in Washington, and especially on which party controls Congress Since the 1960’s, an increasing number of Americans have identified themselves as independents

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20. Government’s Role Economic conservatives –emphasize economic liberty and freedom from government interference Economic liberals –favor government regulation of business and government spending for social programs Social conservatives –favor traditional social values; oppose abortion and gay rights Social liberals –favor civil liberties, abortion rights, and alternative lifestyles

21. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Policy Preferences In a democracy, government should do what the citizens want it to do — it should follow citizens’ policy preferences. –Spending Programs –Social Issues abortion racial integration homosexuality –Foreign Policy isolationism unilateralism multilateralism

22. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Is Government Responsive to Public Opinion? “Yes, it is” –end of Vietnam War –Civil Rights Act of 1964 –A variety of studies show that policy coincides with public opinion most of the time.

23. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Is Government Responsive to Public Opinion? “No, it’s not” –often public opinion coincides with policy, but does not actually cause policy –government may shape public opinion outright manipulation (e.g., Tonkin Gulf incident) public relations efforts

24. Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Conclusion Overall, public opinion seems to play an important role in policy-making, but so do a range of other political actors and institutions. The true influence of public opinion is probably less than statistical studies suggest. Influence of public opinion may vary depending on issue and its context.