World Meteorological Organization Outcomes of the Symposium on Multi- Hazard Early Warning Systems for Integrated Disaster Risk Management, Geneva, May 2006 Dr Maryam Golnaraghi, Chief of WMO DRR Programme Expert Meeting on “National Meteorological and Hydrological Services’ Participation in Disaster Risk Reduction Coordination Mechanisms and Early Warning Systems” 27 November 2007

Economic Losses Related to Disasters are on the Way Up Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

While Casualties related to Hydro- Meteorological Disasters are Decreasing Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

Disaster Risk Management and Hyogo Framework for Action Risk TransferRisk IdentificationRisk Reduction Governance and Organizational Coordination Historical hazard data and analysis Changing hazard trends Vulnerability assessment Risk quantification Sectoral planning Early Warning Systems Emergency preparedness planning Education and training Cat Insurance and Bond Markets Weather Derivatives Knowledge Sharing

Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate Intensity Frequency Heatwaves Heavy rainfall / Flood Tropical Cyclones Coastal Marine Hazards Strong Wind Water Resource Management Health Industry Food security Transport Energy Urban areas Hazard Exposure is increasing ! Need for Prevention and Mitigation

Early Warning Systems National to local disaster risk reduction plans and legislation

Marine Health (etc.)… Geological Communities at risk warning National to local governments Hydrological Meteorological NATIONAL SERVICES post-disaster response

Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health (etc.) (coordination) NATIONAL SERVICES requirements Community Preparedness warning National to local governments supported by DRR plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms warning requirements Effective Early Warning Systems warning preventive actions

First WMO Symposium ″Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems″ WMO Headquarter, May 2006 Goals: 1) To explore further the concept of “multi-hazard” approach to early warning systems, 2) To recommend examples of good practices Participants: 100 experts and practitioners from 20 agencies, NMHSs, WMO Programmes Co-Sponsored by: ISDR Secretariat, World Bank, UNDP, IFRC, UNESCO, OCHA

2) Risk Knowledge and Integration in Warning Messages Data gaps, quality, accessibility, sharing –Hazard –Vulnerability (e.g. socio-economic, topographic…) Standardized methodologies and expertise (e.g. hazard analysis, risk modelling) Understanding of the changing patterns of risk (e.g. hazard, vulnerabilities) Local capacities 1) Early Detection, Monitoring and Warning Services Strengthen observation systems –Coverage –Sustainability –Inter-operability –Multi-use of networks (where practical) –Built on "system of systems" concept –Data policies Prediction and forecasting –Methodologies, accuracy and lead time –Multi-disciplinary 3) Dissemination and Communication Effective warning messages –Incorporation of information about risks in warning messages –Understandable warning messages –Authoritative warnings (Authentication of sources) Dissemination networks –Interoperability (use of international standards) –Redundancy and resilience of networks –Same distribution channels for warnings of different hazards (cost efficiency, reliability and effectiveness) Standard warning terminologies (nationwide, and across borders, traffic light concept) 4) Integration in Preparedness and Response Processes Education and awareness (emergency responders, authorities, risk managers, emergency responders, media, public…) : –Understanding of warnings and uncertainties –Awareness of less frequent events Cross-Training of Operational Agencies Operational planning –Drills –Community preparedness Need for Strong Governance, Organizational Coordination and Operational Processes

Criteria for Good Practices in EWS Political commitment, DRR plans, legislation, roles and responsibilities (national to local) Overall Coordination and operational working mechanisms among agencies Capacity for delivery of “best available information” to address government demand in support of decision-making Authoritative, understandable warnings  Combine hazard, risk and response information Dissemination Mechanisms  Match resources and culture  Sustainability, interoperability, reliability Integration of warning information in emergency preparedness and response actions Community-based emergency preparedness and training programmes Feedback mechanisms to improve the system

WMO EWS Symposium Identified Examples of Good Practices France Vigilance system Shanghai Emergency Preparedness System Cuba tropical cyclone early warning system Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme Noted that there are other such good practices that need to be also identified

Example: Regional Cooperation for Tropical Cyclone Early Warning Systems 6 Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres 6 Regional Technical Commission Committees (involving all countries at-risk) Support to all countries at risk of Tropical Cyclone

Example: Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh

Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 France Vigilance System Strong wind Strong rainfall Thunderstorm Snow/Ice Avalanches Heat waves Warnings activate cascades of preparedness and response plans, actions and responsibilities Legislation Planning Authoritative Warnings Organizational linkages Training and feedback + NEW: Flood warning map national to local authorities Hazards Level of warning

France Vigilance Strategy: 20 years of History in Tropical Islands

Shanghai City: Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Emergency Response Programme Governance : (mega) city-level. Organisational: Top-down (monitoring, forecasting, warning) and bottom-up Operational: Community-based + high tech monitoring and alerting tools Multi-Hazard Approach: Services are specialized but shared for alert dissemination and response mechanisms.

Multi-Hazard Early Warning Demonstration Projects 1) Documentation of governance, organizational coordination and operational processes; NMHSs’ support and response to national to local needs 2)Strengthening operational capacities and inter- agencies coordination and cooperation for Development, delivery and utilization of warnings Driven by priorities and requirements 3) Analysis of socio-economic benefits of early warning systems and sustainability of capacities 4) Sharing experiences and good practices Publications, manuals, study tours, training workshops, symposia

( 2) Strengthened operational Technical capacities and inter-agency cooperation Warnings, specialized forecasts, and other Services DATADATA Internet Protection of lives, livelihood and property Media Internet SMS Other Disaster Preparedness and Response Systems (1) Governance, Organizational Coordination and Operational Processes (3) Cost- Benefits Analysis

Coordination and Cooperation With Other Agencies for Early Detection, Development and Issuance of Warning Increasing Level of coordination with technical agencies for early detection, monitoring and development of warnings Type IType IIType III Hazard fully under the mandate of NMHS e.g. strong winds, strong rainfall, snow/ice, hail, tropical cyclone Hazard under joint mandate with another technical agency e.g. floods, landslides, heat/health etc. Hazard under mandate of other agencies but NMHS contribute e.g. locust, health epidemic, man- made hazards Increasing Level of coordination with civil protection and risk management agencies for issuance of warnings

Symposium on ″Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems″ to be held annually from Q Goals: 1) To take stock of what would have been achieved through demonstration projects, with respect to governance, organizational coordination and operational processes, 2) To exchange good practices and experiences Participants: Experts and practitioners from national and international agencies involved in EWS Q1 2009, the Second Symposium will be held in Toulouse, France

For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel Fax Thank You

Improving Warnings Quality and lead times Emergency Preparedness and Response PreparednessSectoral plans Short- to Medium-Range Weather Seasonal Forecasts Short-Term Climate Long-Term Climate

Status of Early Detection and Forecasting Capacities Drought –Predictability lead time: from weeks to seasons –Key factors: Timing, Geographical area, Intensity, Duration –Key indicators: Precipitation, groundwater and reservoir levels, soil moisture, satellite observations, ENSO Floods and Related Hazards (Land-slides) –Predictability lead time: from minutes (flash floods) to weeks (riverine flood) –Key factors: Timing, Geographical area, Water level, Velocity –Key indicators: precipitation, soil moisture, (snow cover + temperature), Satellite observations, ENSO Tropical Cyclones, Severe Storms, Storm Surges –Predictability lead time: up to 72 hours –Key factors: Intensity (Saffir-Simpson Scale), Storm track, Landfall –Key indicators: Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Sea-Level Pressure, Saharan Air Layer (SAL), Satellite observations, ENSO Other Climate-Related Hazards: e.g., Locust Swarms –Predictability lead time: up to six weeks –Key factors: Timing, Geographical area, Intensity, Duration –Breeding conditions indicators: Rainfall anomalies, Wind direction and persistence, Soil moisture, Vegetation distribution, Satellite observations