Digital Futures 2050’s visions inspiring 2020’s policies Franco Accordino Head of Task Force "Digital Futures" DG CONNECT, European Commission Brainstorming with the CRIS Community Brussels, 11 September 2012

Mission inspire future strategic choices “Digital Futures is a participatory visioning project aiming to devise 2050’s visions & policy ‘routes’ underpinned by the long term advances of ICT”

3/ (?) Futures Policy Options EC mandates Barroso II Policy Frameworks Inspire strategic choices Purpose: inform future strategic choices (Europe 2020) + Evidence + Participation + Agility

4/10 Engagement strategy 1) Host conversations/dialogues with stakeholders Standard format: participatory brainstorming Contributors: scientists, citizens, policy makers,… Virtual (webinar) & in-person meetings Going local: Member States, schools, conferences… Viral process: l oosely coordinated, but with simple, shared rules 2) Capture content into an open, standard online platform (futurium) Based on a fixed meta-model (futures, policies,…) & workflow Enabling co-creation (wiki), voting, forecasting, back casting, mapping,… Automatic semantic annotation, data mining, correlation, fact-finding Agent-based gaming and simulation (early 2013) emergent collective intelligence

5/10 Futures (Visions) Policies Inspire Impact on individuals, society, economy, environment, politics, technologies,… Real world Trends Scientific Evidence Sense & Analyse data, Identify issues and challenges, Elicit knowledge (Re-)shape Inform Envision IMPLEMENTATION / REVIEW DESIGN Build on scientific evidence & people‘s opinion to inform policy decisions Stakeholders Policy makers Other factors than evidence

6/10 Meta-model to engage stakeholders Trend Every European Digital Future DAEPolicy A1A101 AA BAC Futures (visions) Policies pillars actions Agents p1p Policies: Are expressed as S.M.A.R.T. objectives May be structured (e.g. pillars) Atomic level: timed actions Have a measurable impact Other measurable attributes (e.g. plausibility, innovation, …) Futures: Desirability (emotional view) Likelihood (rational/scientific view) Causality: antecedent->consequent Forecasting vs. back casting Agents: Stakeholders in broad sense (EC, MS, Regions, Industry, Citizens…) Implementers (those who execute the actions) Verifiers Decision makers Policy AA pp AA

7/10 Digital Futures workflow Conversation on Futures Co-create (wiki) and synthesise Lock Co-create (wiki) and synthesise Futures (outlined form) Futures (detailed form) Conversation on policies Policy options (outlined form) Back/Fore cast, analyse & vote Prioritised Futures Policy options (detailed form) ready? Reality check, analyse & vote Prioritised Policies ready? Lock Unlock NOYES NOYES START WITH A CONVERSATION (Mar 2012) START CREATING ONLINE (Oct 2012) (Dec 2012)

8/10 Digital Futures achievements (July 2012) 70+ conversations in person/online, 20+ interviews 100+ mind maps, 16 draft trends, 8 draft visions… Engaging non usual partners (schools, youth associations, …) Meta-model and its experimental implementation –Test phase till 30 September Next milestones: –Click&Join futurium as of –Digital Future conversations in the pipeline: Presidency event with youth, 14-15/09 EP event, 27 Nov 2012 Going local campaign, Sep-Dec 2012 World Foresight Forum, April 2013 Final event, Nov 2013 … –Releases of visions an policy options: 31/10/12, 31/05/13, 30/11/13 Building on achievements and best practices (smart regulation,…)!

9/10 Energy positive “Play & Rewind” Bionics and cyborgs Implanted/ Embedded (bio-neuro-cogno-nano) “Organic” computing Cloud computing Energy efficient Internet Cognitive and soft robots Complex systems modeling Virtualisation Foundations Technologies Challenges/Issues Financial crisis Sustainability Healthy ageing Resource efficiency Climate changes Governance Trust Security privacy Property, Ownership Balanced resource sharing Participative decision Governance ~Immortality Interim/beta status Body/mind adaptation Quantum Internet Trans-humanism Technological futures & related challenges (ver. 07/12) “Conventional” ICT (Silicon based, Packet switching, Boolean, …) Future foundatinos: ICT-Bio-Nano-Neuro-Cogno- Quantum convergence

10/10 More emerging trends and visions (July 2012) Trends: 1.Urbanisation (including transportation) 2.Tension between representative and delegate democracy 3.Rise of digital natives 4.Behavioural transformation 5.Shifting power in geopolitics 6.Current model of capitalism is running out of steam 7.Cyber-physical convergence 8.Personalized manufacturing (3D printing and more) 9.Hyper-connectivity (e.g. internet, pervasiveness of ICT) 10.Global Warming 11.Depreciation of money (governmental monetary policies) 12.Globalisation and ethics 13.Exponential rate of technological change 14.Renaissance of space exploration 15.Instability through instrumentalisation of religion 16.Scarcity of natural resources (including energy) Visions: 1.Environment, energy and space in Personal life in Economy in Robotics in Technology in Health in Social life in Politics in 2050 Work in

11/10 Thanks (as of 1 Oct 2012)

12/10 Intro Voting & selection Open circle (all suggest topics) The conversation of the day with euroCRIS Parallel tables Reporting Final closing circle

13/10 Stakeholders Participatory Tools Policy Makers mine & visualise Social Media (Twitter, FB, G+,…) Participate Real world data Participate Data Gathering Data Crawling Open Data Cloud Knowledge Harvesting Tools Futurium’s conceptual architecture