Highlights Overview Project Activity July 2005 – August 2006

Theme 1: Patterns and Variability

Multiple Constraints Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation Rayner et al Transport Model Atmospheric CO 2 1 constraint 2 constraints Trace Gas Transport Model InterComparison Transport Model Terrest. Biosphere AVHRR-PAR Atmospheric CO 2 (Parameter Estimation) Optimization InterComparison 10 participant groups [CSIRO-ESA funded] Final synthesis papers Optimization InterComparison Carbon Fusion: UK-NERC and other partners Data Assimilation: US-NSF proposal (submitted) Contributing to: Theme 1 Lead by Raupach

Dynamic Regional Carbon Budgets and Methodologies Conference: Beijing, August International Workshop: Beijing, 20 August 2006 – Focus on Asia Pacific Theme 1 1.Synthesis Papers (in preparation) for special Issue 2.Model intercomparsion on regional carbon budgets: 1 st stage: China ( ) 2 nd stage: Asia Pacific ( ) Lead by GCP-Beijing Office, Canadell

Regional Project on Carbon and Water Issues in SE Asia Theme 1 1."Regional project on carbon and water issues in SE Asia" has funded 7 projects with PIs from Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines in "Advanced training workshop on carbon and water issues in SE Asia" An international team of 18 lecturers from 8 countries provided training to 33 junior faculty and senior technician/staff from 13 countries in Southeast Asia (including Australia) and South Asia. A new workshop will be held next November. The Workshop was organized by the Southeast Asia Regional Committee for START (SARCS) and sponsored by the GCP. Lead by Chen

Annual Update of the Global Carbon Budget Lead by Lequere, Canadell Theme 1 Short News in Science/EOS Media event with Press Release Website

Theme 2: Processes and Feedbacks

Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21 st Century Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.- Fire/LUC CH 4 Hydrates Biological Pump Solubility Pump Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate-Human System Oceans Land GCP 2005

1.To updated Geo-referenced database on frozen carbon stocks. 2.To develop a conceptual framework with all processes and feedbacks to understand future dynamics. 3.To synthesize century-scale permafrost dynamics from GCMs and 1-D models. 4.Overall Synthesis: Vulnerable in permafrost carbon. Vulnerability of Frozen Carbon Workshop Series Funded by: European Science Foundation; National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS-NSF); ICSU grant to IGBP Theme 2 Partnership: Global Carbon Project (GCP) International Permafrost Association (IPA) Climate and Cryosphere (CliC-WCRP) 1 st meeting Santa Barbara, CA February 2006 Lead by Field & Canadell

Vulnerability of Carbon in Tropical Peatlands Workshop Series ( ) Funded by: Asia Pacific Network, GCP, GEC, CIFOR 1 st Wk: January 2006, Sumatra, Indonesia Theme 2 Partnership: Global Carbon Project (GCP) Global Environment Center-Malaysia (GEC) CIFOR-Bogor (Indonesia) Undertaken Research & Synthesis: Update on extent and C stocks Land use change impacts Fire impacts Future C emissions (scenarios) Special Issue in ECOSYSTEMS (submission 2007) New Research: Carbon transport by water in Kalimantan (Chen’s Program) Mitigation and Adaptation: reducing vulnerability through conservation and sustainable use of peatland (APN, CIFOR) EU – to sponsor Wks Lead by Canadell, Parish, Murdiyarso

Vulnerabilities of the C cycle to Drought and Fire Theme 2 Theme 1: Observations of Climate Change, Variability and the Carbon Cycle Theme 2: Processes and Controls of Coupled Carbon-Water Cycles Theme 3: Modeling Present and Future Interactions of Carbon and Hydrological Cycles Theme 4: Vulnerability and Ecosystem Services of Carbon-Water Cycles Are regional drying trends weakening the terrestrial carbon sink? SEA Tropical 1.4 PgC 01,02,03 SEA Trop. 1.2 PgC High-Mid Latitude Summers undo the benefits of earlier spring 2003 Europe 0.5 PgC 2002-present 0.2 Pg C 2003 Siberia 0.2 PgC 1997 Amazon Fire Year 2005 Amazon 1 Pg C Australian Academy of Science, Canberra, Australia, 5-9 June 2006 Co-sponsors: GCP, Australian AR-ESS-N, AIMES, ESF Lead by Raupach & Canadell

Vulnerabilities: Synthesis and Integration Theme 2 Raupach MR, Canadell JG (2006) Observing a vulnerable carbon cycle. In: Observing the Continental Scale Greenhouse Gas Balance of Europe (eds. H. Dolman, R. Valentini, A. Freibauer), Springer, Berlin (submitted). Canadell JG, Gifford R, Houghton S, Pataki D, Raupach MR, Smith P, Steffen W (2006) Saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink. In: Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, Canadell JG, Pataki D, Pitelka L (eds.). The IGBP Series. Springer, Berlin (in press)

Theme 3: Carbon Management

Open Science Conference Theme 3 Co-Sponsors: AIMES; START; Global Land Project; IHDP/IGBP Urbanization Project; Industrial Transformation (IT); National Institute of Ecology (INE); and Metropolitan Autonomous University Carbon Management at Urban and Regional Levels: Connecting Development Decisions to Global Issues Mexico City, September 4-8, 2006 Lead by Romero, Dhakal

Earth System Science Partnership B. Relatively shorter-term carbon management perspective inside cities and regionsA. Longer-term regional carbon management perspective Diagnostic approachSolution-seeking approach Energy use from fossil fuel Holistic analyses Sectoral analyses Land use changes Holistic variables such as POETIC * Specific and focused variables such as lifestyle, population etc. Energy choice Buildings Transport Pollution management Direct and embodied carbon emissions and sinks Locally, at urban and regional levels Nationally International mechanisms and emerging climate regimes Urban and regional development scenario and assessing its carbon consequences Regional development pathways and its implications on carbon (1) Carbon accounting (2) Analyzing proximate and underlying drivers (3) Evaluating trade- offs/synergies of integrating carbon mgmt in key urban issues (4) Studying opportunities for re-orienting institutions and incentive systems (5) Urban and Regional Carbon Management (URCM) Place-based and policy-relevant carbon management research agenda Other activities in 2006/2007Other activities in 2006/2007 Theme 3 Lead by Dhakal

Social Networks & Urban/Regional Carbon Management 1. Power to Change & Power to Resist 2. Missing or Weak Clusters in Policy- Making or Implementation 3. Shared Values for Building Consensus 4. Creating Knowledge-Sharing Action Clusters 5. Knitting Networks for Action 6. Stakeholder Networks, Worldview Commitment to Decarbonized Future 7. Time & Place Stamps in Network Data 8. Computational Laboratories Theme 3 Lead by Canan

Lessons from Implementing the Montreal Protocol for URCM Technology & Economic Assessment Panel Global Network of Industry, Government, Academia, NGOs Fostered Collaboration Can-Do Teams Leadership Linked Co-Benefits Theme 3 Lead by Canan

Carbon Sequestration and Policy Theme 3 Science bases for carbon accounting rules in the Land Use and Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector for international negotiations. Including: –Deforestation Avoidance. –Factoring out direct from indirect human-induced influences on C sources and sinks. One workshop every year associated with COP or SBSTA meetings. Special Issue in Environmental Policy and Climate (in preparation). Deforestation Avoidance (Policy Briefing, in preparation) NIES Lead by Schlamadinger, Yamagata, Canadell

GCP Wide: Program Developments

Publications Russian June 2005 [Exe.Sum.Only] In press English Oct Chinese Nov Japanese March 2006 Project Wide

Policy Briefing on Carbon (in preparation) To be published by the UNFCCC CoP 12 in Nairobi, November 2006 Example of Policy Briefing only Project Wide

SSC Rotation Project Wide Rotate Off: Mike Apps, Canada Mingkui Cao, China Bob Dickinson, USA Chris Sabine, USA Riccardo Valentini, Italy Oran Young, USA Nominations: Yi Qe, China Antonio Nobre, Brazil Guy Midgley, South Africa Thomas Johansson, Sweden Pierre Friedlingstein, France Invited: Scot Doney, USA