National Projections Program, 2005 Population Projections Branch Population Division U.S. Census Bureau

Two series under consideration Interim projections, released in spring of 2004 Population forecasts under development, future release

3 Interim projections, production overview Initially produced by International Program Center (IPC) for International Database (IDB), resident plus Armed Forces overseas by age and sex, 2000 through Race and Hispanic origin detail added, early 2003, reduced to resident population Resident population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin released, spring of 2004

4 Interim projections, technical attributes in brief Incorporated Census 2000 as base Adapted component assumptions from existing projections, released early Corrected to population estimates component assumptions for 2001, by mixing high, medium, and low series Major change in imputation of race of child, based on OMB 1997 guidelines: “check all that apply”

5 Interim component assumptions Components not race-specific: race and ethnic composition effects from old series present, but not updated Very slight decrease in fertility from old middle series—still a rise above TFR=2.2, then a slight decline No change in mortality from old middle: e 0 =81.2 for males, e 0 =86.7 for females (2050) Slight increase in international migration from old middle series, but no revision of decline in early 2000s

6 Race of child: the problem OMB guidelines yield 62 categories of 5 major race and 2 Hispanic origin responses: (2 5 -1)*2 Interim projections have only 8 cross- categories of race and origin Race of child not generally same as race of parent: race/origin groups not “closed” with respect to reproduction

7 Race of child: assumptions Transmission of race and Hispanic origin from parent to child follows census universe, not biological “rules” We can approximate transmission from structure of households Mixed-race childbearing stays at baseline levels, except for demographic supply effects

8 Race of child: census input Census 2000 (100%) tabulation of households with parents and non- adoptive children under 18 by race and Hispanic origin Imputed race of missing fathers by race of mother and race of children Race of child may not “agree” with either Mom or Dad: OK

9 Race of child: imputation 1.Apply fertility rates to projected women to yield new mothers by race and origin 2.Tabulate potential fathers by race and origin, and age of mother 3.Measure shift in distribution of potential fathers from base date to target date via multiple logits 4.Impose multiple-logit shift on actual distribution of fathers in census household file, to yield joint distribution of mothers, fathers by race and Hispanic origin 5.Impute race of child from joint distribution, based on census household file

10 Forecasts under development Greater emphasis on historical time series in formulating assumptions More systematic approaches to derivation of future trends in components Measurement of uncertainty: prediction intervals “Min-max” race, but technical innovations directed to three large groups that are close to old definition Any innovation in method is likely to appear as an “experimental” product