2004 Technical Summit Overview January 26-27, 2004 Tempe, AZ

Technical Summit Objectives Review status of each Forum’s planned 2004 technical work (scope, purpose, deliverables, & schedule) Develop a master schedule for technical deliverables Discuss technical data and analyses needed for §308/§309(g) Reasonable Progress demonstration Provide an update on the Attribution of Haze project

Annual Mean Natural Background Aerosol Estimates 1 Particle ComponentEast (μg/m 3 )West (μg/m 3 )Error Factor PM 2.5 Sulfate (NH 4 HSO 4 ) Organics Elemental Carbon – 3 Ammonium Nitrate0.1 2 Soil Dust – 2 Water PM From John Trijonis, NAPAP State of Science #24, Appendix A, 1991

Implications of IMPROVE Ambient Monitoring Data - Dust Fine soil and coarse particles are responsible for about 6 to 26% of the annual average reconstructed aerosol light extinction. Fine soil can account for about 10 to 30% of the fine particulate mass. The contribution of fine soil to the aerosol extinction on the haziest days in the West is almost always below 10%, but can be as high as 40%. Coarse material generally contributes less than 20%, but is frequently higher, reaching as high as 90% of the aerosol extinction.

Definitions As they apply to emissions sources for WRAP technical analysis projects: Apportionment – to divide and share out according to a plan, to make a porportionate division or distribution Attribution – to explain by indicating a cause

Data and Analyses Needed for TOC Attribution of Haze Project Review results of existing source attribution studies – April 30 Framework for addressing technical Reasonable Progress and Natural Conditions guidance requirements – June 30 Modeling Results Initial Source Apportionment Results - June 30 Natural versus Anthropogenic results – September 30 Initial Causes of Haze Assessment results – June 30 Emissions Inventories Descriptions of EIs used in initial SA modeling – June 30 Descriptions of EIs used in NvsA modeling – September 30 Additional emissions and monitoring data expert review studies (address uncertainty, completeness, et cetera) – July to October

Class I areas Analyzed for §309 Strategies §309 Modeling Grid (36km grid cells)

Unified RPO Modeling Grid for §308 (red, 36km grid cells) WRAP Modeling Grid for §308/§309(g) (blue, 12km grid cells)

Emissions Data for use in Initial Source Apportionment Modeling (April-June 2004) Area – by Pechan, 2002 projected from 1999/96 EIs (excludes wb dust) Biogenics – by RMC (add sea salt) Dust – by RMC - windblown module v1, using 2002 met Road dust – interpolated 2003 emissions from 1996/2018 ENVIRON data Fire – Air Sciences (Wildland, Rx & Ag Fire) – 2002 interim EI On-road Mobile emissions from ENVIRON Off-road Mobile emissions from ENVIRON (NONROAD 2000) Stationary – by Pechan, 2002 projected from 1999/96 EIs EPA utility sector data (growth & control assumptions same as used for § base case) Canada – 2000 point/area/mobile – fire? Mexico – first comprehensive EI (ERG 1999 EI for 6 northern states) Off-shore – by RMC (Caribbean, oil/gas production, et cetera) Modeling Domain Boundary Conditions?

Emissions Data for use in Natural versus Anthropogenic Source Apportionment Modeling (August – October 2004) Area – by Pechan, 2002 projected from 1999/96 EIs (excludes wb dust) Biogenics – by RMC (add sea salt) Dust – by RMC - windblown module v2, using 2002 met Road dust – interpolated 2003 emissions from 1996/2018 ENVIRON data Fire – contractor TBD (Wildland, Rx & Ag Fire) – 2002 final EI, NvsA split On-road Mobile emissions from ENVIRON Off-road Mobile emissions from ENVIRON (NONROAD 2000) Stationary – by Pechan, 2002 projected from 1999/96 EIs EPA utility sector data (growth & control assumptions same as used for § base case) Canada – 2000 point/area/mobile – fire? Mexico – first comprehensive EI (ERG 1999 EI for 6 northern states) Off-shore – by RMC (Caribbean, oil/gas production, et cetera) Modeling Domain Boundary Conditions?

Emissions Inventories for §308/§309(g) 2002 Interim EIs (done as of April 2004) Support initial source apportionment modeling; From these modeling results, provide a starting point for states and tribes to identify sources contributing to haze; and Provide the Causes of Haze Assessment project a database for source/receptor analyses Natural/Anthropogenic fire EI splits (initial analysis as of August 2004) Support modeling analyses of NvsA haze contributions

Emissions Inventories for §308/§309(g) 2002 Final EIs (done as of December 2004) Support 2005 and later source apportionment modeling; From these modeling results, provide a starting point for states and tribes to identify sources contributing to haze; and Provide the Causes of Haze Assessment project a database for source/receptor analyses.