1. Regional Air Quality Modeling Results for Elemental and Organic Carbon John Vimont, National Park Service WRAP Fire, Carbon, and Dust Workshop Sacramento, CA May 23, 2006

2. Outline How well does the model perform for EC and OC? What changes are predicted in EC and OC concentrations on the worst visibility days between the 2002 and 2018 base cases? What is the influence of natural emissions in the 2002 base case and projections? Conclusions

3. CMAQ Model Performance By Month Across All WRAP IMPROVE Sites

6. CRLA

8. ROMO

9. CMAQ Model Performance for Elemental Carbon Rocky Mountain – July 2002

10. CMAQ Model Performance for Organic Carbon Rocky Mountain – July 2002

11. CMAQ Model Performance for Elemental Carbon Rocky Mountain – February 2002

12. CMAQ Model Performance for Organic Carbon Rocky Mountain – February 2002

13. CMAQ Model Performance for Elemental Carbon Badlands – July 2002

14. CMAQ Model Performance for Organic Carbon Badlands – July 2002

15. CMAQ Model Performance for Elemental Carbon Badlands – February 2002

16. CMAQ Model Performance for Organic Carbon Badlands – February 2002

17. + += Primary Secondary Bio Secondary Anthro Total OC

18. Primary Organic Carbon Concentrations (2002 Annual Average) Resulting From Natural Sources (Primarily Wildfire)

19. Primary Organic Carbon Concentrations (2002 Annual Average) Resulting From All Sources

20. Secondary Organic Carbon Concentrations (2002 Annual Average) Resulting From Non-Fire Biogenic VOCs and No Anthro Emissions

21. Secondary Organic Carbon Concentrations (2002 Annual Average) Resulting From Non-Fire Biogenic VOCs Plus Anthro Emissions

22. Change in Biogenic Organics

23. Relative Concentrations and Future Changes In Organic Carbon Sources At these six sites … 2 nd Anthro: Contribution is small, but generally decreases 2 nd Biogen: Contribution is large, varies significantly, but generally decreases Primary: Contribution is also large, but changes are more variable

24. Major Caveats of CMAQ-Based Carbon Source Identification These results based on annual averages –Results likely different on 20% best and worst visibility days Based solely on 2002 emissions –Not necessarily representative of long-term (2064) natural conditions –Lead to very site-specific results Contributions vary across the region, even for non-fire biogenic sources

25. Percent Change in Annual Average Anthropogenic Secondary Organic Carbon Concentrations

26. Percent Change in Annual Average Biogenic Secondary Organic Carbon Concentrations

27. Percent Change in Annual Average Primary Organic Carbon Concentrations

28. Elemental Carbon Percent Reduction on 20% Worst Visibility Days (2002 to 2018 Base Case)

29. Organic Carbon Percent Reduction on 20% Worst Visibility Days (2002 to 2018 Base Case)

30. YOSE Natural sources dominated total, and the variability in particulate organic mass concentrations summer 2002 Carbon isotope analyses of fine aerosol filter samples from Turtleback Dome determined a constant contribution for fossil fuel sources of 0.7 ± 0.1 µg/m 3 to POM. Contemporary (biogenically derived) carbon represented 2-9 µg/m 3. Sources of contemporary aerosol carbon include emissions from fires and vegetative emissions of reactive gases that subsequently form condensable species, both particulate primary emissions and volatile organic aerosol precursors that are later oxidized to secondary organic aerosols.

32. Conclusions Based on comparisons to ambient monitoring data, CMAQ performs adequately for EC and OC at Class I areas for purposes of assessing the impact of emission changes on the 20% best and worst visibility days. EC concentrations are expected to decrease significantly in 2018, commensurate with mobile source and some smoke controls.

33. Conclusions Smaller improvements in OC are expected due to large influence of natural sources. A significant portion of the OC originates from non-fire biogenic VOC emissions, but is enhanced by anthropogenic sources. Natural source contributions are large, vary substantially by site and year, and limit the progress that can be made, but … –OC is not entirely natural and can benefit directly or indirectly from emission controls

34. Conclusions Fire emissions dominate extreme organic values Actual future organic emissions from fire are unpredictable in terms of where and when they occur - The model has constrained wildland fires to be in the same between current and future years The model can be used to examine different scenarios – limited utility

35. Conclusions Real trick is to account for the dominance of organic concentrations at sites with fire impacts and still show reasonable progress