Sixth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones Topic 5 Disaster Mitigation, Warning Systems and Societal Impact Topic Chair : M C Wong Rapporteurs: Topic 5.1 – W J Lee Topic 5.2 – Roger A Pielke, Jr Topic 5.3 – Linda Anderson-Berry

Focus of Topic 5: Application of tropical cyclone forecasting and warnings in disaster risk management, including : Application of tropical cyclone forecasting and warnings in disaster risk management, including : (I) Evaluation of the effectiveness of warning systems (II) Factors contributing to human and economic losses, & (III) Mitigation strategies and community capacity building for disaster reduction Recommendations Recommendations

I.Effectiveness of Warning Systems Reliable forecasting of tropical cyclones Reliable forecasting of tropical cyclones Efficient conveyance of warning information Efficient conveyance of warning information

Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones Tools Tools Satellite data, Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) guidance, Model consensus track forecasts, Nowcasting tools, etc. Satellite data, Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) guidance, Model consensus track forecasts, Nowcasting tools, etc. Performance Performance Improved track forecasting up to 72 hours Improved track forecasting up to 72 hours Less reliable for weak or compact cyclones; cyclones with unusual track behaviour or undergoing extratropical transition; multi-cyclone situation Less reliable for weak or compact cyclones; cyclones with unusual track behaviour or undergoing extratropical transition; multi-cyclone situation Intensity forecast (including wind / rainfall distribution) remains a challenge Intensity forecast (including wind / rainfall distribution) remains a challenge Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (DPP) gearing towards the prediction of extreme weather events Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (DPP) gearing towards the prediction of extreme weather events International and cross-discipline cooperation International and cross-discipline cooperation Sharing of information/experience via diff platforms Sharing of information/experience via diff platforms Encourage interaction / communications between meteorologists, hydrologists and DPP experts Encourage interaction / communications between meteorologists, hydrologists and DPP experts

Conveyance of Warning Information Getting the message through the last mile/km Getting the message through the last mile/km Multiple and diverse dissemination channels with high and low technology varieties and different forms of presentation of TC messages according to the level of intended audience and strength of dissemination channels Multiple and diverse dissemination channels with high and low technology varieties and different forms of presentation of TC messages according to the level of intended audience and strength of dissemination channels Digital Multimedia Broadcasting, Internet portal sites, mobile phones, satellite broadcasting, radio, TV Digital Multimedia Broadcasting, Internet portal sites, mobile phones, satellite broadcasting, radio, TV Social scientists to help translate probabilistic prediction into a more visual format for different stakeholders Social scientists to help translate probabilistic prediction into a more visual format for different stakeholders Outreach programmes and secondary education to promote public awareness of the threat of TCs Outreach programmes and secondary education to promote public awareness of the threat of TCs battle the human nature of It wont happen here battle the human nature of It wont happen here Cooperation amongst NMHSs, emergency managers, media, and stakeholders down to the community level Cooperation amongst NMHSs, emergency managers, media, and stakeholders down to the community level

II.Factors Contributing to Human and Economic Losses Indexation (normalization) methodology incorporating factors to account for changes in population, inflation and wealth Indexation (normalization) methodology incorporating factors to account for changes in population, inflation and wealth How past events would affect the present society How past events would affect the present society Cyclone impact studies in India, US, the Caribbean, and Latin America Cyclone impact studies in India, US, the Caribbean, and Latin America No consistent trend in the normalized damage values No consistent trend in the normalized damage values Societal factors largely contributing to increased losses Societal factors largely contributing to increased losses Cost-benefit analyses of disaster mitigation policy alternatives and practices Cost-benefit analyses of disaster mitigation policy alternatives and practices A more comprehensive understanding of the value of disaster mitigation A more comprehensive understanding of the value of disaster mitigation Open-source database on the broad human and economic impacts of disasters Open-source database on the broad human and economic impacts of disasters A centralized, comprehensive, peer-reviewed reference A centralized, comprehensive, peer-reviewed reference

II.Factors Contributing to Human and Economic Losses (cont.) Policy options for disaster mitigation; securitization of risk through catastrophe bonds and derivatives, provision of micro- finance in developing countries Policy options for disaster mitigation; securitization of risk through catastrophe bonds and derivatives, provision of micro- finance in developing countries A tool for disaster recovery in ways to reduce long-term vulnerabilities A tool for disaster recovery in ways to reduce long-term vulnerabilities Effect of increase in sea surface temperature on TC damage and losses (due to anthropogenic climate change) Effect of increase in sea surface temperature on TC damage and losses (due to anthropogenic climate change) Still inconclusive, but the possibility cannot not be rule out Still inconclusive, but the possibility cannot not be rule out

III.Mitigation Strategies and Community Capacity Building for Disaster Reduction A Total Warning System – a complete end-to-end warning process A Total Warning System – a complete end-to-end warning process Predict / monitor TC development/progress using best science available Produce / deliver timely and accurate warnings in well understood formats via different channels A receptive, prepared and resourceful community

Identifying, understanding and reducing community vulnerabilities was seen to be important Identifying, understanding and reducing community vulnerabilities was seen to be important Disaster mitigation gradually shifted to the development of social policies and engineering of defences Disaster mitigation gradually shifted to the development of social policies and engineering of defences Implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action Building the Resilience of Nations and Committees to Disasters and the Platform for the Promotion of Early Warnings (PPEW) - a global blueprint for disaster risk reduction efforts during the next decade Implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action Building the Resilience of Nations and Committees to Disasters and the Platform for the Promotion of Early Warnings (PPEW) - a global blueprint for disaster risk reduction efforts during the next decade III.Mitigation Strategies and Community Capacity Building for Disaster Reduction (cont.)

Community capacity is increasingly being recognized as a reliable indicator of how human populations are likely to respond to and recover from disasters Community capacity is increasingly being recognized as a reliable indicator of how human populations are likely to respond to and recover from disasters A bottom-up approach to strengthen and build resilient communities – case examples from Australia, Hong Kong, Fiji A bottom-up approach to strengthen and build resilient communities – case examples from Australia, Hong Kong, Fiji Cooperatively and collectively evaluate the effectiveness of TC warning systems - achieved through International and multi- disciplinary post-impact case studies Cooperatively and collectively evaluate the effectiveness of TC warning systems - achieved through International and multi- disciplinary post-impact case studies

Recommendations: The need to enhance skills in TC intensity forecasting (wind and rainfall distribution) The need to enhance skills in TC intensity forecasting (wind and rainfall distribution) More research and development work on the applications of EPS, particularly for probabilistic assessment of extreme events More research and development work on the applications of EPS, particularly for probabilistic assessment of extreme events Establishment of international reference database on the economic and non-economic losses due to TC and related disasters Establishment of international reference database on the economic and non-economic losses due to TC and related disasters Promulgation of early warnings as an end-to-end process with enhanced community involvement Promulgation of early warnings as an end-to-end process with enhanced community involvement Adoption the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) in mitigation strategies formulation Adoption the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) in mitigation strategies formulation Facilitation interaction and communications amongst meteorologists, hydrologists, social scientists and DPP experts. Also, coordinate multi-disciplinary studies on social impacts of TC Facilitation interaction and communications amongst meteorologists, hydrologists, social scientists and DPP experts. Also, coordinate multi-disciplinary studies on social impacts of TC

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