1. The Anticipated Response: an essential element in end-to-end, community-early warning systems Topics: 1.Frameworks. 2.Trends: operational and institutional issues. 3.Lessons learned. Juan Carlos Villagrán de León villagran@ehs.unu.edu Institute for Environment and Human Security - UNU-EHS

2. Institutions of various kinds design, establish, and operate various or all components of the system. Civil Society can be involved in the promotion the establishment of the system and participates in the Anticipated Response phase. Instrumentation is used to monitor precursors, to exchange information, and to warn the population. UNU-EHS The Anticipated Response: an essential element in end-to- end, community-early warning systems Three pillars of EWS: Institutions Instrumentation Civil Society Early Warning System

3. Two conceptual frameworks for EWS: “End-to-End” systems include the Anticipated Response Phase. Forecasting: Will there be an event? Monitoring precursors to natural events. Anticipated Response: Initiate actions according to emergency plans. YES NO Issue a Warning or an Alert. Forecasting: Will there be an event? Monitoring precursors to natural events. YES NO Issue a Warning or an Alert. Traditional view, technical agencies: “End-to-end” enhanced view:, disaster preparedness agencies UNU-EHS

4. Considering the fact that the success or failure of an EWS is measured in terms of people saved and losses minimized, it is important to: Anticipated Response in the context of Early Warning UNU-EHS Link those institutions in charge of disaster preparedness and response to the EWS. Such agencies complement efforts and contribute to its sustainability. Involve the population at risk in routine operation of EWS, for example through Emergency Committees at various levels (province, municipal, local). Introduce the notion of EW as part of preparedness within the framework of risk management. Develop EW plans and warning strategies targeting those at risk. Promote efficient early warning. Awareness on EW, preparedness, and risk management. Development of simple instruments to monitor precursors. Provide a communications platform that is people-friendly and multi-tasking. Conduct drills to test and improve emergency plans.

5. Community-operated Early Warning Systems (C-EWS): Volunteers support implementation and operate the system. Local Emergency Committees elaborate emergency plans, test and improve the EWS through exercises and drills. National level preparedness and response institutions provide radio networks for communications. This allows communities to have a direct link to all levels (municipal, state, and national). Procedures are similar for all systems targeting the same hazard. However, there are limitations regarding applicability to all hazards. Applicability is best for floods in small basins. Institutions The Anticipated Response: an essential element in end-to- end, community-early warning systems Instrumentation Civil Society UNU-EHS

6. Recommendations: Sustainability has to be built into the systems in order for such systems to remain operational. Promote an integrated approach, combining national and local strengths and capacities, to improve existing EWS or when implementing new ones. Efforts just at one level do not lead to efficient or sustainable early warning. Recognize the official institutional mandates and frameworks of national level agencies, especially in the case of disaster preparedness. The Anticipated Response should be an essential component of any EWS. Risk assessment for EW should target vulnerable groups of people to develop warning strategies. Warnings can only be effective if they reach the people who need to respond in a timely fashion. People need to understand the context of warnings, and how to react to them. Hi-tech EWS allow for high precision, but in developing countries, cost is still an issue. Low tech C-EWS have been successful in involving community members and local governments in rural communities, especially in the case of small river basins. However, tools and instruments have to be adapted to their limitations. UNU-EHS