ECOSYSTEM–BASED ADAPTATION AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA ECOSYSTEM–BASED ADAPTATION AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE Experiences with M&E in the Context of PPCR in Zambia DRAFT David C. Kaluba National Coordinator PPCR and Principal Economist Government of the Republic of Zambia 6th June 2013

Zambia Strategic Programme for Climate Resilience (SPCR) – Overview Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR) – integral part of Zambia’s effort to respond to climate change Phase I (2010-2013) supports: mainstreaming, capacity building and information sharing at national level Preparing for Phase II (design outlined in SPCR), endorsed in June 2011

Zambia SPCR – Overview Phase II (2013-2019) supports: Three highly complementary PPCR Projects, administered by IBRD, AfBD and IFC, as well an NDF-funded project Government to move from capacity building to climate resilience priorities Overall Program Coordination

Zambia SPCR - Overview Three PPCR Projects Barotse Sub-Basin Kafue Sub-Basin Three PPCR Projects AfDB PPCR project – Kafue Sub-basin IBRD PPCR project – Barotse Sub-basin IFC PPCR Project – private sector support: index-weather insurance, climate information, micro credit, etc Due to high vulnerability, the Barotse and Kafue Sub-Basins of the Zambezi were chosen as focal areas for SPCR interventions. They comprise 24 districts, and a potential population of 3.8 million

Oversight and Institutional Arrangements INTER-MINISTERIAL NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE SECRETARIAT National Coordination of Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management Implementation by line ministries Coordination of PPCR M&E Government-led channel for coordination with MDBs and external Partners Core Team from Key Sectoral Ministries Complemented by contracted staff

Zambia’s Results Framework 1. Participatory Adaptation 2. Climate Resilient Infrastructure 3. Strategic Programme Support 3.3 Private Sector Support 3.2 Strengthened Climate Information 3.1 Institutional Support to Zambia’s Climate Change Program Climate Change mainstreamed in the most economically important and vulnerable sectors of the economy SPCR 1 - 7 Years Outcomes and Impacts 2 Strengthened adaptive and livelihoods of vulnerable farmers and rural communities Strengthened climate resilient infrastructure policies and pilot implementation Strengthened institutional structure, strategic planning, coordination and awareness for climate resilience Country Catalytic Replication 5 15 yrs A Prosperous Climate Resilient Economy Transformative Impact 10 years Zambia’s Results Framework

Five Core Indicators National Level Mainstreaming Changes in budget allocations to climate-smart programs in national budget National Level Mainstreaming Vulnerable districts, wards and communities use improved tools, information and instruments to respond to climate change and variability Local Adaptive Capacity Number of beneficiaries supported directly by the project to adapt to the effects of climate change Target Beneficiaries Evidence of strengthened Government capacity and coordination mechanism to mainstream climate resilience Institutional Framework Climate responsive financial instruments developed and tested Climate Responsive Investment

Other Indicators –Baroste Sub-basin Project Change in area of canals with optimal average flows Changes in area with sustainable access to reliable canal water Degree of integration of climate resilience in local area planning Number of sub-grants approved and completed Incremental labor generated through cash-for-works Strengthened institutional and financial mechanisms to ensure climate resilience Number of relevant climate information products/services made available for decision making at various levels

Sample Results Framework and Monitoring -Baroste Sub-basin Project Project Development Objective (PDO): To strengthen Zambia's institutional framework for climate resilience and improve the adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities in the Barostse sub-basin PDO Level Results Indicators* Core Unit of Measure Base-line Cumulative Target Values** Frequency Data Source/ Methodology Responsibili-ty for Data Collection YR 1 YR 2 YR3 YR 4 YR5 YR6 Indicator One (National Level Mainstreaming) Changes in budget allocations to climate-smart programs in national budget1 Allocations to climate resilient programmes increased by 25% in real terms in vulnerable sectors by EOP (agriculture, environment, natural resources, energy, water, infrastructure, health and DRM) from 2007-2012 baseline 118.8 million ZMW/ Year2 124.7 130.7 136.6 141.3 144.9 148.5 million ZMW/ year Annual Yellow Book (budget allocations) by Ministry and program ZCCN and MoF Indicator Two: (Local Adaptive Capacity) Vulnerable districts, wards and communities use improved tools, information and instruments to respond to climate change and variability % of targeted councils, wards and community groups assessed as having developed incremental decision making capacity and applied climate information to adapt to longer-term climate change and variability 3 0% -- 50% of first tranche sub-projects 70% of all sub-projects Baseline, Mid-Term, Sub-Project Approval and EOP Survey of Beneficiaries Baseline, Midterm and EOP – Independent Evaluation Sub-Project Approval: M&E Team Indicator Three: (Canal Operation in Floodplain) Change in area of canals with optimal average flows Average flow velocity of targeted canals at 80% of limiting flow standard (0.6 m/s for sandy clay soils) measured 3-4 months after floods recede To be assessed by baseline study 0.6 m/s 0.5 m/s 0.48 m/s Technical Survey Assessment Study and M&E Team Indicator Four:(Target Beneficiaries) Number of beneficiaries supported directly by the project to adapt to the effects of climate change Number of direct beneficiaries (cumulative)4: Total HH Women-headed HH Other vulnerable HH Total no. of people 375 160 215 1,900 2,600 1,100 1,500 13,100 7,900 3,400 4,500 40,000 16,100 7,000 9,200 81,100 25,800 11,000 14,800 130,000 Records by M&E Team M&E Team

Challenges of M&E Lack of quantitative baseline data (allowing for monitoring of long term transformational impact) Limited skilled human resources and capacities

Challenges of M&E Climate Change Resilience Difficulties in developing a composite indicator that measures different aspects of community resilience (e.g. observed behavioral change) Inter-sectoral participatory project in a centralized Government system Difficult to attribute/distinguish progress achieved through adaptation or sectoral policies and activities

Measures to address Challenges PPCR includes capacity building and awareness raising activities A baseline survey (funded under a Project Preparation Grant) to be undertaken Composite indicator based on score card (to be developed) Engagement of stakeholders at all levels (Secretariat responsible for sharing and “ground-truthing’ the results )

Measures to address Challenges Inter-ministerial Secretariat established composing of staff from key sector ministries Clear roles and responsibilities: Secretariat : Overall Program (SPCR) level monitoring PPUI’s and Provincial Officers : project/sectoral and sub-basin monitoring Partner NGOs and Private Sector firms: sub-basin monitoring Beneficiary communities: participatory monitoring though scorecard system Will make use of existing M&E systems in districts

For More Information, Please Contact dckaluba@juno.com or dckaluba05@gmail.com