Climate Change and Fossil Fuels Will running out of oil help mitigate global warming? WSU March 1, 2007 Dr. Robert Brecha Physics Dept., Univ. of Dayton Dayton, OHUSA

Outline Climate change signals Climate models and projections Peak oil (and natural gas and coal) Will fossil fuel limits have an effect? Conclusion

The Past

Mean global temperature - distribution

Energy Balance “Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications” James Hansen, et al. Science 3 June : – Current imbalance of 0.85±0.15 W/m 2

CO 2 Record

CO 2 and CH 4 concentration

The Future

Model scenario indicators

Climate “Forcings”

Model projections

Temperature change - natural or anthropogenic?

Energy and fossil fuels

World energy use Coal Nuclear Oil (34.9%) Gas Hydro Biomass Geothermal, wind, solar, etc. RE (13.4%) Total ~400 Quadrillion Btu World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day

US production peak Approximately 30 out of 40 largest producers have crossed a peak

Peak models – world production USGS (BP + 50%) BP reserves

Discovery vs. consumption

Discovery and production

World Reserves and R/P

Production and R/P Ratio

Most Recent EIA Predictions (June 2006) In the IEO2006 reference case, … (p)roduction from Norway … is expected to peak at about 3.6 MMbd in 2006 and then decline gradually to about 2.5 MMbd in The UK sector is expected to produce about 2.2 MMbd in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 MMbd in 2030.

Natural Gas National Petroleum Council (1998) US Prod.Import from Canada Bcm 90 Bcm Bcm 120 Bcm Bcm Now the numbers are more like … Bcm Bcm Bcm Bcm And Canada peaked in 2002 at 188 Bcm and expects a decline of 2.5% per year

Natural Gas in the US EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data (per day)

U.S. Coal Production

Energy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005 Lower quality coal

R/P for Coal 1993 – According to BP, reserves will last 250 years 2005 – According to BP, reserves will last 155 years 3% future growth (less than currently), reserves will last 65 years U.S. figures: 1939, 3800 years remaining; 1953, 1900 years; 1993, 300 years; 2005, 240 years left

EROEI “Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States” C. Cleveland Energy 30 (2005) 769–782 Tar sands Hydro Wind Energy output Energy input

Tar Sands Alberta, Canada Effectively a mining operation Current production of 10 6 b/d of synthetic crude oil Estimate ~3×10 6 b/d in 10 yrs., 5×10 6 b/d in 25 yrs. Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus hazardous waste disposal EROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 3:1

Oil Shale Western U.S. Possibly 800 billion barrels !! A mined product Techniques proven in principle, but not large scale Only profitable with oil >$75/bbl High growth, optimum scenario – 10 6 b/d in 2025 EROEI is (optimistically?) estimated at ~2:1 – 4:1 Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab.

Ethanol from Corn Yield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha kg corn /ha) Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×10 10 GJ/a Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×10 8 ha of land Currently we have in the US 1.2×10 8 ha of cropland total But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol from industrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1.3. GHG emissions are only slightly less than for conventional gasoline – and can be worse if coal-generated electricity is used. D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813 Farrell et al., Science 311, (2006)

Fossil fuels and CO 2

SRES - Oil

SRES - NG

Oil and CO 2

Natural Gas and CO 2

Coal and CO 2

Total CO 2 – Middle Scenarios

Total anthropogenic carbon emissions

a b

Peak fossil fuel scenario

Global Sea Level Changes Rahmstorf, Science (2007)

Stop burning fossil fuels? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE

Keep burning at same rate? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE

Will climate change mitigation be costly? Some coupled economic-climate models show the costs to be minimal Stern report – not acting now will be extremely costly U.S. businesses that have taken action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have found positive bottom-line results