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Peak Oil, Peak Gas, Peak Coal: Implications for Peak CO2.

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Presentation on theme: "Peak Oil, Peak Gas, Peak Coal: Implications for Peak CO2."— Presentation transcript:

1 Peak Oil, Peak Gas, Peak Coal: Implications for Peak CO2

2 Greenhouse Gas Effect on Earth ’ s Temperature http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Greenhouse_Effect.png

3 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Atmospheric_Transmission.png

4 Historical Carbon Dioxide Levels in Atmosphere http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:CO2_data_mlo.svg

5 Historical Global Temperature Differences from Mean of 20th Century Data Source: IPCC

6 Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Data Source: IPCC

7 US Population Density

8 What about Peak Oil, Carbon and Climate? Do IPCC’s Scenarios Reflect Peak Oil? If fuels are main source of Carbon and their abundance is much lower than historical estimates given by USGS and EIA, when will CO2 peak?

9 Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO)

10 World Crude Production: Past the Peak?? May 2005 Data Source: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11d.xls ‘Peak Oil’ (i.e., maximum global crude oil production) occurred in 2005!

11 Peak Oil, Peak Gas, Peak Coal means Peak CO2 “… we conclude that CO2 emissions from burning reserves-based oil and gas are lower than all IPCC scenarios …”, From report to OECD “Peak-Oil and the Evolving strategies of Oil Importing and Oil Exporting Countries - Facing the hard truth about an import decline for the OECD countries” Kjell Aleklett, Uppsala, Sweden, October 14, 2007 ASPO-Assoc. for Study of Peak Oil & Gas www.peakoil.net “… we conclude that CO2 emissions from burning reserves-based oil and gas are lower than all IPCC scenarios …”, From report to OECD “Peak-Oil and the Evolving strategies of Oil Importing and Oil Exporting Countries - Facing the hard truth about an import decline for the OECD countries” Kjell Aleklett, Uppsala, Sweden, October 14, 2007 ASPO-Assoc. for Study of Peak Oil & Gas www.peakoil.net

12 Peak Coal  “… emissions from coal are much lower than the majority of the scenarios. IPCC emission scenarios for the period 2020 to 2100 must be altered to more accurately reflect the fossil fuels that are practically available. ”

13 Implication  If fossil sources of carbon are much less abundant than most government agencies estimate (which form the basis of IPCC climate forecasting models), then there may be a 21 st Century peak in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  Energy depletion will be more pressing problem than climate. When will a majority of population realize this? 5 years, 10 y???  If fossil sources of carbon are much less abundant than most government agencies estimate (which form the basis of IPCC climate forecasting models), then there may be a 21 st Century peak in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  Energy depletion will be more pressing problem than climate. When will a majority of population realize this? 5 years, 10 y???


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