1. Peak Oil, Global Climate Change and Sustainability Dr. Robert Brecha Physics Dept. Univ. of Dayton Honors Seminar of Metropolitan Dayton, Oct. 12, 2006

2. Outline Ecological footprint Ecological footprint Fossil fuel resources and use Fossil fuel resources and use Global climate change Global climate change Economics Economics Social justice Social justice

3. How big are you? Basal metabolic rate – 1800 kcal/day Equivalent to a rate of energy use of 100 W Energy ultimately comes from the sun – sunny day gives ~1000 W/m2 How often does the sun shine? How efficiently does sunlight get turned into broccoli? How much energy is needed for farming, packaging, transporting, preparing? 0.1 m 2 0.4 m 2 80 m 2 800 m 2

4. What has been left out? No automobiles (~20% of energy use) No automobiles (~20% of energy use) No televisions, stereos, refrigerators, etc. No televisions, stereos, refrigerators, etc. No heating or AC (~20% of energy use is in households) No heating or AC (~20% of energy use is in households) Since food is about 10% of energy use, estimate 10,000 m 2 /U.S. citizen = 1 ha = 2.5 acres Since food is about 10% of energy use, estimate 10,000 m 2 /U.S. citizen = 1 ha = 2.5 acres

5. How big is the Earth? Total surface area: ~500 million km 2 Total surface area: ~500 million km 2 Total land area: ~150 million km 2 Total land area: ~150 million km 2 Total arable/crop land area: ~50 million km 2 Total arable/crop land area: ~50 million km 2 Number of people supported: 50 trillion m 2 ÷ 10,000 m 2 /person = 5 billion (at current U.S. levels of consumption) Number of people supported: 50 trillion m 2 ÷ 10,000 m 2 /person = 5 billion (at current U.S. levels of consumption)

6. Ecological footprint Planet enters 'ecological debt' Rising consumption of natural resources means that humans began "eating the planet" on 9 October, a study suggests. The date symbolised the day of the year when people's demands exceeded the Earth's ability to supply resources and absorb the demands placed upon it. http://www.footprintnetwork.org/

7. Overshoot Wackernagel, et al., Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 99, 9266-9271 (2002)

8. Components of overshoot Energy – carbon sequestration

9. World energy use Coal Nuclear Oil (34.9%) Gas Hydro Biomass Geothermal, wind, solar, etc. RE (13.4%) Total ~400 Quadrillion Btu World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day

10. Numbers United States uses ~21 million barrels of oil per day United States uses ~21 million barrels of oil per day World use is ~84 million bpd World use is ~84 million bpd World energy use is ~400 quadrillion Btu/year World energy use is ~400 quadrillion Btu/year U.S. share is ~100 quadrillion U.S. share is ~100 quadrillion ~80% is fossil fuel, 0.5% is solar, wind, geothermal – renewables ~80% is fossil fuel, 0.5% is solar, wind, geothermal – renewables U.S. share of world population is 4.6% U.S. share of world population is 4.6%

12. US Production Peak Approximately 30 out of 40 largest producers have crossed a peak

13. Peak models – world production BP reserves USGS (BP + 50%)

14. OPEC reserves – what we do not know

15. Discovery and production

16. Discovery vs. consumption

17. Greenhouse effect

18. Mean global temperature – single number version

19. Mean global temperature - distribution

20. Longer-term Temperature Record

21. http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/

22. Carbon Dioxide Fluctuations 2100 Petit et al, Nature v.399 (6735), pp. 429-436. (1999) 2100 today

23. Total anthropogenic carbon emissions

24. Carbon cycle

25. Model Output - Future

26. Some options Natural Gas Natural Gas Tar sands Tar sands Shale oil Shale oil Coal Coal Hydrogen Hydrogen Ethanol Ethanol Decreased Decreasedconsumption  Declining NA production  Environ. + production problems  Environmental worries  Currently uses NG; see above  Corn – land, net energy probs.  Lifestyle changes?

27. EROEI “Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States” Cutler J. Cleveland Energy 30 (2005) 769–782 Tar sands Hydro Wind

28. Natural Gas in the US EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data (per day)

29. Tar Sands Alberta, Canada Alberta, Canada Effectively a mining operation Effectively a mining operation Current production of 1 MMb/d of synthetic crude oil Current production of 1 MMb/d of synthetic crude oil Estimate ~3 MMb/d in 10 years, 5 MMb/d in 25 years Estimate ~3 MMb/d in 10 years, 5 MMb/d in 25 years Compare to 84 MMb/d demand currently Compare to 84 MMb/d demand currently Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus hazardous waste disposal Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus hazardous waste disposal EROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 5:1 (Conventional oil ~20:1) EROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 5:1 (Conventional oil ~20:1) See for example: Malcolm Brinded Executive Director Exploration & Production, Royal Dutch Shell plc http://www.shell.com/static/media-en/downloads/speeches/mb_oxford_energy_seminar.pdf

30. Canadian NG Disposition

31. Oil Shale Western U.S. Western U.S. Possibly 800 billion barrels !! Possibly 800 billion barrels !! A mined product A mined product Techniques proven in principle, but not at large scale Techniques proven in principle, but not at large scale Only profitable with oil >$75/bbl Only profitable with oil >$75/bbl High growth, optimum scenario – 10 6 bbl/d in 2025 or later. High growth, optimum scenario – 10 6 bbl/d in 2025 or later. EROEI is estimated at ~2:1 or less EROEI is estimated at ~2:1 or less Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab.

32. U.S. Coal Production http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/coal.html Energy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005 Lower quality coal

33. Hydrogen Current US annual production: 10 Mt Current US annual production: 10 Mt accounts for 5% of natural gas usage accounts for 5% of natural gas usage releases 100 Mt CO 2. releases 100 Mt CO 2. For all US transport we would require ~ 200 Mt/yr. For all US transport we would require ~ 200 Mt/yr. Mostly from reforming methane (NG) Mostly from reforming methane (NG) Used for making ammonia (fertilizer); oil refining Used for making ammonia (fertilizer); oil refining Could use electricity to obtain H 2 from H 2 O Could use electricity to obtain H 2 from H 2 O Fuel cells Fuel cells Expensive $3000/kW (gasoline engine: $30/kW) Expensive $3000/kW (gasoline engine: $30/kW) Well-to-wheels efficiency  current hybrid electric vehicles Well-to-wheels efficiency  current hybrid electric vehicles Physics Today, Dec. 2004 +Transportation Energy Data Book, 24 th ed.

34. Ethanol from Corn Quick calculation: we would need 560 million acres of land to plant enough corn to supply our transportation needs - nearly twice the total cropland under cultivation But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol from industrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1. D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, 65-76 (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813 Farrell et al., Science 311, 506-508 (2006) GHG emissions are only slightly less than for conventional gasoline because large fossil-fuel inputs are needed to produce ethanol

35. Six Scenarios

36. How Have We Reacted Previously? Data from EIA and Transportation Energy Data Book, 24 th ed.

37. Driving Habits vs. Hybrids Scenario one: Fleet grows by 1.5%/yr; no hybrids, driving amt. remains const. at 11,600 mi/veh/yr Scenario two: Fleet grows by 1.5%/yr; hybrids increase by 25%/yr; driving amt. remains const. at 11,600 mi/veh/yr Scenario three: Fleet grows by 1.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving cut by 10% one time to 10,440 mi/veh/yr Scenario four: Fleet grows by 1.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving cut by 2%/yr from 11,600 mi/veh/yr But … if the decline rate is 3 – 5 %/year?

38. Auto Lifetime Transportation Energy Data Book, 24 th Ed.

39. Oil and CO 2

40. Natural Gas and CO 2

41. Coal and CO 2

42. Total CO 2 – Middle Scenarios

43. Model output – CO 2 concentration

44. Model output - Temperature

45. Aggressive action

47. Economic Indicators Law of Demand – If price rises, all else being Law of Demand – If price rises, all else being equal, demand will decrease. Law of Supply – If price rises, all else being equal, Law of Supply – If price rises, all else being equal, supply will increase. “…cumulative discovery explains approximately “…cumulative discovery explains approximately 70 per cent of the quadratic Hubbert curve for discovery over time for the US lower 48 states, whereas the price of oil is an inelastic factor.” * “Roughly 99 per cent of oil production over “Roughly 99 per cent of oil production over time is explained by cumulative oil production … the price of oil is a fairly inelastic factor in determining production.”* D. Reynolds, Using non-time-series to determine supply elasticity: How far do prices change the Hubbert curve?, OPEC Review, June 2002, p.147-167

48. Energy Recovery Costs

49. Prohibitive mitigation costs? "Kyoto would have wrecked our economy. I couldn't in good faith have signed Kyoto," President Bush said. "Kyoto would have wrecked our economy. I couldn't in good faith have signed Kyoto," President Bush said. Tellus Institute and Union of Concerned Scientists (1998) – Gathered information from six studies (NAS, DOE, OTA) and found net economic gain. Tellus Institute and Union of Concerned Scientists (1998) – Gathered information from six studies (NAS, DOE, OTA) and found net economic gain. The Energy Journal special issue (2006) – Int’l Assoc. of Energy Economics – Many models show negligible effect on the world’s economy by making a switch from fossil fuels to renewables. The Energy Journal special issue (2006) – Int’l Assoc. of Energy Economics – Many models show negligible effect on the world’s economy by making a switch from fossil fuels to renewables.

50. Human Development Index (HDI)

51. Energy use today

52. Future growth?

53. Social justice and equity

54. Nuclear Technology known Technology known Good for environment – at least for CO 2 emissions Good for environment – at least for CO 2 emissions Electricity, not transportation Electricity, not transportation Waste disposal, etc. Waste disposal, etc. Non-renewable (~50-100 years at current rate of consumption?) Non-renewable (~50-100 years at current rate of consumption?)

55. Solar Energy Clearly plentiful, renewable Clearly plentiful, renewable Now provides ~0.1% of energy Now provides ~0.1% of energy Energy input to manufacture seems favorable Energy input to manufacture seems favorable Hot water or electricity Hot water or electricity Local generation Local generation In Ohio? In Ohio?

56. German Building Standards Midwest average SB Supplem. energy Dom. hot water Heating 20 years behind!

57. Turn Down the Temperature For each one-degree temperature setback for a period of eight hours, the heating energy savings is ~1%. For each one-degree temperature setback for a period of eight hours, the heating energy savings is ~1%. Setting back by 2°F during the day and 10°F during the night would save ~15% on heating energy, or 1.5 Quads (1.5% of total energy use)

58. Lighting Options Compact fluorescent light bulbs use 5-6x less energy and last ~10x longer than incandescent bulbs Compact fluorescent light bulbs use 5-6x less energy and last ~10x longer than incandescent bulbs Every unit of electrical energy saved translates into about three times that much in fossil-fuel energy savings Every unit of electrical energy saved translates into about three times that much in fossil-fuel energy savings Just two simple examples – but they require (minor) changes in our habits

59. Solar Energy Resource Yearly insolation World energy use per year U Coal Oil NG Worldwide energy reserves

60. Conclusions Peak oil date is uncertain, but soon (certainly during your career) Peak oil date is uncertain, but soon (certainly during your career) Non-conventional oil sources (and ethanol) are too little, too late, too costly (energy) Non-conventional oil sources (and ethanol) are too little, too late, too costly (energy) Global warming is real and a long-term serious threat Global warming is real and a long-term serious threat Overall critical time-frame will be the next twenty years Overall critical time-frame will be the next twenty years Mitigation costs are not necessarily an issue Mitigation costs are not necessarily an issue Reducing fossil-fuel energy use drastically is the key issue Reducing fossil-fuel energy use drastically is the key issue

61. Final Words How often are we faced with the opportunity to make slight changes in behavior (i.e. use less energy) and thereby help address three major world problems at once? In this case, global climate change, natural resource availability issues, and international conflicts over those same resources all arise from the same source – using too much fossil fuel energy. How can we not act?