Light-duty Vehicle Technology for the Next Decade+ Tom Cackette California Air Resources Board Ventura County Air Pollution Control Board September 10, 2013

 Emissions and fuel economy, by 2016  Smog emissions - about the same  Greenhouse gas emissions – 17% lower  Fuel economy - 20% better  Economics  New car price increase (2016) - <$1000  Fuel savings ~ $3000 (~$25/mo. saving) Vehicles and Technologies Next 5 Model Years –

Technology Penetration Model Years Aero & tires Transmission Direct injection Lower weight Electric drive Adv. ICE

 Emissions and fuel economy, by 2025  Smog emissions – 75% decrease  Greenhouse gas emissions – 34% lower  Fuel economy - 50% better  Economics  New car price increase - $1800 (vs 2016 MY)  Fuel savings ~ $7000  Breakeven point – 3 years Vehicles and Technologies Following 9 Model Years –

Technology Penetration Following 9 Model Years –

ZEV Annual Sales Required - California Projected: BEVs & FCEV 15.4% of Annual Sales by 2025 Historic annual sales: 1.5-2M

Fuel Cell Vehicles Battery Electric Vehicles Plug-In Hybrids Lots of ZEVs Coming!

Fueling Infrastructure – Electric  Current public charging spots  ~2000 level 2 chargers (3-6 hour charge)  Planned expansion  ~18,000 level 2 chargers  ~200 fast chargers (~30 minute charge)  $3 million in grants to local government for electric vehicle readiness preparation

9 Zero Emission Passenger Vehicles Critical to Success – Now to 2050 Advanced Gasoline Vehicles Plug HEVs FCVs HEVs 79% BEVs + FCVs (ZEVs) 120,000 (2020) 1,400,000 (2025) California Air Resources Board, 2009 BEVs Adopted requirements

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