Liliana Balbi Senior Economist, Team Leader GIEWS FAO Trade and Markets Division Agricultural Market Information Network in the Mediterranean Region Kick off meeting, January 2014 CIHEAM, Paris

What is GIEWS?  The FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) was established in 1975 to monitor food security at global, regional, national and sub-national level on a continuous basis  GIEWS aims to provide policy-makers and the international community with up-to-date information and analyses on all aspects of food supply and demand, so that timely interventions can be planned when necessary

 Collects and analyzes information on: current and prospective cereal production; utilization; stocks; trade (including food aid) and domestic food prices country-by-country  Compiles and analyzes information at regional, subregional and global level  Provides regular updates on food crop production, markets and food security through its web site, publications, special alerts, and RSS  Develops new approaches and technologies in early warning for food security What GIEWS does

 Crop prospects and cereal production forecasts  Country Cereal Balance Sheets (CCBS)  Markets and access to food  Vulnerability, sub-national food security Monitoring food security at country level

Crop prospects and cereal production forecasts  Meteorological data  Access to agriculture inputs  Policies affecting production or trade  Planted areas  Pests and diseases  Crop growing conditions Remote sensing  Estimated rainfall  NDVI  ASIS (since 2013) Production forecasts are based on analysis of different variables affecting production and statistical time series and are continuously updated as new information becomes available.

ASIS is a tool for early identification of agricultural areas probably affected by drought in current season Features of ASIS  Temporal and spatial integration of vegetation index and land surface temperature to simplify the interpretation of the data for non-remote sensing experts  Near real-time products on 10-day basis showing “hot spots” i.e. agricultural areas probably affected by drought  Unique time series of 30 years of vegetation index at 1km resolution  Archive of agricultural drought hotspots since 1984 Developed in collaboration with: Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) - Monitoring Agricultural Drought with Remote Sensing Data Temporal aggregation over current crop season Spatial aggregation for crop area by administrative unit

Country Cereal Balance Sheets (CCBS)  System covers 145 countries with data since 1980 on marketing year basis  Balances include data on: production, stocks, trade including food aid, and utilization (food, feed, other uses) for 9 major cereal commodities  Continuous updates for early warning  Used to estimate food deficit and import needs at country level

Country Cereal Balance Sheets (CCBS)

But what impact on domestic food prices around the globe? Which countries most affected? Markets and access to food Benchmark international cereal prices Soaring international food prices

GIEWS Food Price Data and Analysis Tool

Vulnerability, sub-national food security Crop Production and Food Supply/Demand Assessment (FAO) Vulnerability and Food Needs Assessment (WFP) Macroeconomic Context Affecting Food Supply, Demand (FAO) FAO-GIEWS/WFP Food Security Assessment Missions

C OUNTRIES WITH U NFAVOURABLE P ROSPECTS FOR C URRENT C ROPS  GIEWS estimates regional and global food supply and demand by aggregating country-level information  World market export prices are collected on a daily and weekly basis and cereal trade on the main international grain exchanges is monitored continuously  Global cereal supply and demand indicators Regional and Global Food Security

GIEWS Information Dissemination

Thanks