1. Assessment of the displacement of emissions Lower Mekong Sub-region REDD+ workshop Regional Dialogue on Emissions Displacement Bangkok, 11 – 12 November 2010 Presented by: Patrick VAN LAAKE

2. The need to assess displacement of emissions Techniques for assessment Emissions displacement in the national and regional context Presentation structure

3. In the negotiating texts on REDD+, the UNFCCC calls for “actions to reduce displacements of emissions” as a safeguard to be monitored Displacements of emissions imply that positive actions on REDD+ have negative impacts elsewhere – Displacements to other sectors in the country – Displacement to other countries The guidance on emissions displacement is not very elaborate and care must be taken in designing systems to monitor it Why assess displacement?

4. Displacement of emissions is related to reductions in deforestation and forest degradation – If deforestation is reduced, where will people or industries get timber from? – If degradation reduced, where will people get poles, fuel wood, fodder, bamboo, thatch, etc. from? Displacement is assessed by creating a baseline on the questions above and then tracking how forest resource use is changing over time How to assess displacement?

5. Collecting and analyzing the data for the assessment of emissions displacement can be done using a variety of techniques and tools – Field data collection Where do local communities source their forest products from, especially timber and fuelwood? Transports of timber logs, charcoal, fuelwood, etc. What altenatives are being devloped for forest product use? – Remote sensing, aerial photography Establishment of forest area, deforestation Determine forest charactersitics – Secondary data Statistics on national and international trade in forest products Records of infractions (illegal logging, etc) Tools and techniques

6. MRV and REL are the basic information structures for REDD: – Baseline data on forest cover and biomass – Techniques and tools for observation and data analysis – Up-to-date information on activities and state of the forest resources The monitoring of safeguards on emission displacement should be integrated in the MRV and considered when developing or updating RELs – Integrate field data on forest product use – Integrate data on records of illegal logging and transportation – Integrate data on substitution of forest product use MRV and REL

7. The IPCC identifies 6 land use classes of which “forest” is one Emissions can be displaced from the forest class to other classes – This will be minimal in most cases Emissions can also be displaced within the class, but to other forest areas within the country – This is most often the case when using sub-national approaches to REDD+ implementation In the National Communication on Greenhouse Gases these displacements should become visible as transfers in emissions between classes or sub-national regions Emission displacements in the national context

8. Imports of timber – even illegal timber – are not of concern to accounting for REDD – Exports are because they reduce the carbon content of the forest Increase in import volumes may indicate displacement of emissions – But account for changes in industrial production for exporting Countries that are major importers of timber will have a credibility problem with their domestic REDD programmes – Why pay for good behaviour on the management side if there is bad behaviour on the industry side? Regional collaboration and assessment of emissions displacement will be seen as very positive by buyers of credits Emission displacements in the regional context

9. Virtually all countries in South-East East Asia are developing plans for National REDD Programmes This will have profound impacts on the timber market, both regionally and global REDD is also providing opportunities to the wood processing industry – Increased availability of locally-produced timber in 15-20 years – Wood processing industry should develop a long-term vision on how to engage in the National REDD Programmes – Industries can jointly introduce an “environmental levy” on their products which can be used to buy into the National REDD Programme, thus securing long-term supply contracts Alternative is a “Carbon deficit levy” The wood processing industry and emissions displacement

10. Buyers of carbon credits will have a positive view on regional collaboration on REDD+ safeguards, including assessment of emissions displacement – Biodiversity, Indigenous Peoples, poverty reduction, etc – This may lead to higher prices for the carbon credits Involving all stakeholders from all countries (local communities, wood producers, wood processing industries, governments,...) creates synergies – Joint long-term planning on resource availability and utilization – Cross-border processes and effects (e.g. biodiversity) Regional collaboration on safeguards

11. Assessment of the displacement of emissions is a mandatory part of any National REDD+ Programme Displacements can be between land use sectors and between countries Assessment of emission displacement should be integrated in the monitoring system of the National REDD+ Programme – RELs and MRV will be instrumental REDD+ will have a significant impact on the regional trade in forest products which affects national emissions Conclusion