The Economic Impact of Immigrants in Minnesota Katherine Fennelly Anne Huart Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs University of Minnesota

Enormous diversity: immigrants, refugees, low and high-skilled workers and their families

Aging citizens + Need for young work force + insufficient visas for workers = large undocumented population and underclass who are major economic contributors to the state & the US

Aging citizens

The Graying of the U.S. Population Source: Fed. Interagency Forum on Aging, 2000 millions Projected Increase in U.S. Population Over Age 65

Projected Changes in US Labor Force : Three Million Fewer Workers Ages Workers 25-44Workers 45+ Source: Dohm, 2000

Minnesota’s Boom Generation Begins Turning 65 in 2011 Source: Stinson& Gillaspy, 12/05

Aging in Minnesota By 2020 Minnesota will have more retirees than school children Source: Atkins et al Caucus Strib 2/26/06

Need for young work force demand for both high skilled and low skilled workers

Nearly 6 million new jobs will be created between 2004 and 2014 that require only short-term on-the-job training * Percent of projected openings by training required * BLS; pie chart source: Paral, 2006 using BLS Data

Few Natives Available for Low-Skilled Jobs Non-High School Graduates in 2005: Native-born: 12 % Foreign-born: 33 % Foreign-born Hispanics: 54 % Source: US Census Bureau, “Educational Attainment in the US: 2005”, 9/06

Industries Relying on Unauthorized Immigrant Workers 21% of private household workers 24% of farm workers 17% of cleaning crews 12% of food preparation workers 12% of construction workers 10% of leisure & hospitality employees Overall: 5% of US Civilian Workforce Source: Pew Hispanic Center Fact Sheet “The Labor Force Status of Short-Term Unauthorized Workers, 2005”, April 13, 2006

Growth in Minnesota Labor Force Attributable to Latinos 1990 and 2000 * Source: Census, U.S. Bureau of the Census and 2000 Census Sf3 MNPlanning Data Net, 2002 [cited 2/28/ ]. McMurray, Martha. "Minnesota Labor Force Trends " Minnesota Planning OSD , no. December, %

Selected Non-Metro Minnesota Cities with the Largest Hispanic Populations: School Enrollments With and Without Hispanic Students, 1999– '0000-'0101-'0202-'0303-'0404-'0505-'0606-'0707-'0808-'09 Academic School Year With Hispanics Without Hispanics *School Districts Included: Crookston, Moorhead, St. Cloud, Willmar, Marshall, Glencoe Silver Lake, Mankato, Northfield, Faribault, St. James, Worthington, Owatonna, Rochester, Albert Lea, Austin Latino Children are Keeping Rural Schools from Closing or Consolidating

Open letter from 500 economists*, June, 2006 “Immigration is a net economic gain for America and its citizens, and the greatest anti-poverty program ever devised” *including 5 Nobel Laureates

President’s Council of Economic Advisors, June, 2007 “On average, US natives benefit from immigration. Immigrants tend to complement (not substitute for) natives, raising natives’ productivity and income.”

Inequitable distribution of fiscal benefits * In the short-term rapid demographic changes cause some stresses * Funds that accrue at the federal and state levels and to large employers of immigrants don’t ‘trickle down’ to localities with high proportions of immigrants

How much do immigrants cost?

High cost investment Low cost investment Studies often over-state the cost of immigration by measuring costs before adults reach working age

Most immigrants pay the same taxes as US-born residents Income taxes Property taxes Sales taxes Business taxes Property taxes Fewer tax breaks

Insufficient Visas

Restrictions Under NAFTA for Meeting the Demand for Workers: on the one hand, the free flow of capital, goods, and services has been expanded on the other hand, the flow of labor has been the subject of massive enforcement efforts and legal restrictions Source: US-Mexico Migration Panel, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2001

Percentage of Employment-Based Visas That Were Issued for Low Skilled Jobs: 2002 * Source: Jachimowicz, 2004 Workers in less-skilled jobs received only 16 percent of all temporary employment and training visas awarded in (Paral, 2005)

Need to lift the country cap of 26,300 visas

Value of goods exported from the US to Mexico in 2006: $866,000,000,000 Bureau of the Census, Foreign Trade Division,

Aging citizens + Need for young work force + insufficient visas for workers = large undocumented population and underclass who are major economic contributors to the state & the US