Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) Welcome to Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) Step 4 COA Analysis

The Seven Steps of the MDMP Receipt of Mission Mission Analysis Course of Action Development Course of Action Analysis (War-Game) Course of Action Comparison Course of Action Approval Orders Production

Military Decision Making Process Input Output • Mission received from higher HQ or deduced by the Commander and staff •Higher HQ order/plan/IPB •Staff estimates •Facts & assumptions Restated mission •Cdr’s intent & planning guidance •CCIR •Staff estimates & products •Enemy COAs •Refined Cdr’s planning guidance •Friendly COAs •Staff/BOS COAs Wargame results • Established criteria for comparison Decision Matrix •Approved COA Receipt of Mission Commander’s initial guidance WARNO to staff Initial IPB products Cdr’s Intent Restated mission Initial CCIR Updated staff estimates/products Preliminary movement Cdr’s planning guidance Initial ISR plan Updated staff estimates COA statements and sketches Refine Cdr’s planning guidance Wargame results * Decisions support templates * Task Organization Mission to subordinate units Decision matrix Approve COA Refine Cdr’s intent and guidance Refine CCIR OPLAN/OPORD WARNO #1 Staff Estimates Mission Analysis WARNO #2 Course of Action Development Course of Action Analysis (War-Game) Course of Action Comparison Appendix E FM5-0 A staff estimate is an assessment of the situation and an analysis of those courses of action a commander is considering that best accomplishes the mission. It includes an evaluation of how factors in a staff section’s functional area influence each COA and includes conclusions and a recommended COA to the commander. Operations Estimate Personnel Estimate Intelligence Estimate Logistics Estimate Civil-Military Estimate Signal Estimate Information Operations Estimate Special Staff Estimate Once the commander decides on a COA, staff estimates transitions to a running estimate that supports decision making during execution. In running estimates, staffs continuously update their conclusions and recommendations based on the impact of new facts. Course of Action Approval WARNO #3 Running Estimates Orders Production Annexes Note 1: A star ( ) depicts Commander activities and decisions. Note 2: Rehearsals and backbriefs occur during preparation and ensure an orderly transition between planning and execution. Preparation Execution

Course of Action Analysis Identifies which COA: Achieves the Commander’s Intent Best positions the force for future operations In addition, helps the commander and staff to: Maximize combat power Anticipate battlefield events Determine conditions and resources required for success Determine when and where to apply the force’s capabilities Determine the most flexible COA

Course of Action Analysis Why War Game? Allows the staff to visualize the flow of the battle Anticipates events through Action, Reaction, and Counteraction role playing Examines tactical possibilities

Course of Action Analysis War Gaming Rules Remain objective, not allowing personality or “what commander wants” to influence staff. Accurately record advantages and disadvantages of each COA as they emerge. Continually assess COA feasibility, acceptability, and suitability. Avoid drawing premature conclusions and gathering facts to support such conclusions. Avoid comparisons of COAs during the War Game – COA comparison is the next MDMP step. If COA fails any of these tests, reject it. Compare COAs during comparison process: Not during war game.

War Gaming Responsibilities XO - The chief of staff/executive officer is responsible for coordinating actions of the staff during the wargame. He is the unbiased controller of the process - ensuring the staff accomplishes the goals of the war gaming session. Personnel Officer - The G-1/AG (S-1) estimates potential personnel battle losses and determines human resources support for the operation. Intelligence Officer - The G-2 (S-2) role-plays the enemy commander. He projects enemy reactions to friendly actions, and projects enemy losses. (Recommend 2 S-2s) Operations Officer - The G-3 (S-3) normally selects the method for the wargame and role-plays the friendly commander. Logistics Officer - The G-4 (S-4) assesses the sustainment feasibility of each COA. XO - The chief of staff/executive officer is responsible for coordinating actions of the staff during the wargame. He is the unbiased controller of the process, ensuring the staff stays on a time line and accomplishes the goals of the wargaming session. In a time-constrained environment, he ensures that, as a minimum, the decisive operation is wargamed Personnel Officer. The G-1/AG (S-1) estimates potential personnel battle losses and determines human resources support for the operation. Intelligence Officer. The G-2 (S-2) role-plays the enemy commander. He develops critical enemy decision points in relation to the friendly COAs, projects enemy reactions to friendly actions, and projects enemy losses. Operations Officer. The G-3 (S-3) normally selects the technique for the wargame and role-plays the friendly commander. Logistics Officer. The G-4 (S-4) assesses the sustainment feasibility of each COA. The G-4/S-4 determines critical requirements for each sustainment function and identifies potential problems and deficiencies.

War Gaming Responsibilities (continued) Civil-Military Operations Officer - The G-5 (S-5) ensures each COA effectively integrates civil considerations (the “C” of METT-TC). Special Staff Officers - Special staff officers support the coordinating staff by analyzing the COAs from the perspective of their functional areas, indicating how they can best support them. Recorders - Recorders are trained to capture coordinating instructions, subunit tasks and purposes, and information required to synchronize the operation. Doing this allows part of the order to be written before planning is complete. Civil-Military Operations Officer. The G-5 (S-5) ensures each COA effectively integrates civil considerations (the “C” of METT-TC). The CMO officer considers not only tactical issues, but also CS and CSS issues. Host-nation support and care of displaced civilians are of particular concern. Command, Control, Communications, and Computer (C4) Operations Officer. The G-6 (S-6) assesses the communications feasibility of each COA. Information Operations Officer. The G-7 (S-7) synchronizes IO and assists the staff in integrating IO into each COA. Special Staff Officers. Special staff officers support the coordinating staff by analyzing the COAs from the perspective of their functional areas, indicating how they can best support them. Recorders. The use of recorders is particularly important. Recorders are trained to capture coordinating instructions, subunit tasks and purposes, and information required to synchronize the operation. Doing this allows part of the order to be written before planning is complete.

Course of Action Analysis Step 4: Course of Action Analysis Output War game results to include: Concept of operations Synchronization matrix Operations overlay Decision support template Task organization Missions to subordinates Updated CCIR Process Gather the tools List all friendly forces List assumptions List known critical events and DPs Determine evaluation criteria Select the war game method Select a method to record and display results Wargame the battle and assess the results Input Staff estimates IPB (enemy COAs) COA statement & sketch Supporting staff functional COAs

Course of Action Analysis War Gaming Steps Gather the tools List all friendly forces List assumptions List known critical events and decision points Determine evaluation criteria Select the war game method (avenue/belt/box) Select method to record and display results (synch matrix or sketch note) War game the battle and assess the results

War Game Tools Tools required include, but are not limited to— Current staff estimates. Event templates. A recording method. Completed COAs, including maneuver, reconnaissance and surveillance, and security graphics. Means to post or display enemy and friendly unit symbols. A map of the AO.

Course of Action Analysis War Gaming Steps Gather the tools List all friendly forces List assumptions List known critical events and decision points Determine evaluation criteria Select the war game method (avenue/belt/box) Select method to record and display results (synch matrix or sketch note) War game the battle and assess the results

Course of Action Analysis War Gaming Steps Gather the tools List all friendly forces List assumptions List known critical events and decision points Determine evaluation criteria Select the war game method (avenue/belt/box) Select method to record and display results (synch matrix or sketch note) War game the battle and assess the results

Evaluation Criteria – EXAMPLE Mission accomplishment at an acceptable cost. The principles of war. Doctrinal fundamentals for the type and form of operation being conducted (see SMFM 90-9). The commander’s guidance and intent. The level of tactical risk.

Course of Action Analysis War Gaming Steps Gather the tools List all friendly forces List assumptions List known critical events and decision points Determine evaluation criteria Select the war game method Select method to record and display results (synch matrix or sketch note) War game the battle and assess the results

Select the Wargame Method Belt Method Avenue-in-Depth Method Box Method

Belt Method Belt method: Divides battlefield into areas (belts) running the width of sector or zone Sequential analysis Belts based on terrain, phases, and enemy

Avenue-in-Depth Method Avenue-in-Depth method - focuses on one avenue of approach (AA) at a time, beginning with main effort. Plus focuses on all the things that could impact the mission

Box Method Box method: Detailed analysis of critical events or areas (obstacle breach, river crossing, or passage of lines)

Course of Action Analysis War Gaming Steps Gather the tools List all friendly forces List assumptions List known critical events and decision points Determine evaluation criteria Select the war game method (avenue/belt/box) Select method to record and display results (synch matrix or sketch note) War game the battle and assess the results

Record & Display Results of Wargame Time or Phase of the Operation Time/Event (Action) Enemy (Reaction) Counter Action Maneuver Unit Decision Points Air Defense Fire Support Info OPs Engineer CSS C2 Adv/Disadvantages Time or Phase of the Operation The Sync Matrix method allows the staff to synchronize the COA across time and space in relation to an enemy COA. Other operations, functions, and units that are to be integrated, or what the staff wants to highlight, can be incorporated into the matrix. The Sync Matrix method allows the staff to synchronize the COA across time and space in relation to an enemy COA. The first entry is time or phases of the operation. The second entry is the most likely enemy action. The third entry is the decision points for the friendly COA. The remainder of the matrix is developed around selected functional areas and the unit’s major subordinate commands. Other operations, functions, and units that are to be integrated, or the use of which the staff wants to highlight, can be incorporated into the matrix. Synchronization Matrix Sample # 1 21

Record & Display Results of Wargame A Sync Matrix for Contiguous Operations allows the staff to synchronize the COA across Time (H-R) and space (Phase Line) in relation to the enemy COA. A Sync Matrix for Non Contiguous allows the staff to synchronize the COA across Events in relation to the enemy COA. The Sync Matrix method allows the staff to synchronize the COA across time and space in relation to an enemy COA. The first entry is time or phases of the operation. The second entry is the most likely enemy action. The third entry is the decision points for the friendly COA. The remainder of the matrix is developed around selected functional areas and the unit’s major subordinate commands. Other operations, functions, and units that are to be integrated, or the use of which the staff wants to highlight, can be incorporated into the matrix. Battlefield Operating Systems (BOS) or units are listed to highlight what the staff desires to integrate in the matrix whether time, space or event. Synchronization Matrix Sample # 2 22

Record & Display Results of Wargame Critical Event ________________________ Sequence # Action Reaction Counteraction Assets Time Decision Points CCIR Control Measures Remarks When the staff uses the Sketch Note method to record wargame results it uses the wargame worksheet to identify all pertinent data for that critical event. • Uses brief notes concerning critical locations or tasks and purposes • Notes refer to specific locations or relate to general considerations covering broad areas • Staff notes locations on the map and on wargame worksheet • Staff uses sequence numbers to link the notes to corresponding locations on the map or overlay • Staff also identifies actions by placing them in sequential action groups • Use the wargame worksheet to identify all pertinent data for a critical event • Assign each event a number and title, and use the columns on the worksheet to identify and list in sequence: – Units and assigned tasks – Expected enemy actions and reactions – Friendly counteractions and assets – Total assets needed for the task – Estimated time to accomplish the task – The decision point tied to executing the task – CCIR – Control Measures Advantages – Disadvantages Sample Sketch Note Work Sheet

Record & Display Results of Wargame (Critical Event)الحدث الهام ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ (sequence)رقم التسلسل (action)الفعل (reaction)رد الفعل (counter action)الفعل المضاد (assets) الموجودات (time)الوقت (DP) نقاط القرار (CCIR)متطلبات معلومات القائد الحرجة (Control measure) معايير السيطرة Sample Sketch Note Work Sheet Advantages – Disadvantages

Course of Action Analysis War Gaming Steps Gather the tools List all friendly forces List assumptions List known critical events and decision points Determine evaluation criteria Select the war game method (avenue/belt/box) Select method to record and display results (synch matrix or sketch note) War game the battle and assess the results

War Gaming Process During war gaming, the commander and staff try to see the dynamics of the battle’s action, reaction, and counteraction. The Intelligence Officer role plays the Enemy CDR, The Operations Officer role plays the friendly commander, The Executive Officer mediates the process and the separate BOS Officers stand by to provide specific BOS considerations. The staff analyzes each selected event by identifying the tasks the force must accomplish one echelon down, using assets two echelons down (identifying the COA strengths and weaknesses allows the staff to make adjustments as necessary). The war game follows an action-reaction-counteraction cycle and is continued until the critical event is completed (action usually initiated by the side with the initiative - usually the force on the offensive).

War Gaming Process (Continued) The staff considers all possible forces, including templated Enemy forces outside the AO, that could conduct a counterattack. The staff uses the selected method to record war gaming decisions and starts “filling in the blanks”. The staff continually assesses the risk to friendly forces from weapons of mass destruction, seeking a balance between mass and dispersion. The staff identifies the Combat Support (CS) and Combat Service Support (CSS) assets required to support the scheme of maneuver and synchronize the support and sustainment efforts. During the war game, the commander can modify the COA based on how things develop or identify additional critical events that require more analysis.

Course of Action Analysis War Game Results 1 OF 2 Refined or Modified COAs Refined location and time of the decisive point Identification of key and decisive terrain Refinement of enemy event template & matrix Refinement of task organization Identification of unit tasks and subordinate unit tasks Allocation of combat, CS and CSS assets to subordinates Decision points Synchronization matrix and decision support template Estimate duration of each critical event / entire operation Projection of enemy force destruction in each event I.D. location and time of commitment of reserve Identify likely times and areas for enemy use of WMD and friendly NBC requirements Most dangerous enemy COA Location of commander and CPs Identify critical events

Course of Action Analysis War Game Results 2 OF 2 Identify requirements for BOS support Requirements for military deception and surprise Refined C2 requirements (control measures & graphics) Refined CCIR and IR with LTIOV ISR plan and graphics IO objectives and tasks Develop FS, ENG, AD, IO, CSS plans and graphics Identify / confirm location of DPs / NAIs, TAIs Determine timing for concentrating forces & starting the attack or counterattack Determine movement times for critical assets Identify, analyze, and evaluate strengths and weaknesses of each COA Integrate targeting process (Refine EFSTs) Identify hazards, develop controls & determine residual risk War Game Brief (Optional)

Course of Action Analysis War Game Brief Higher headquarters mission, commander’s intent, and military deception plan. Updated IPB. Friendly and enemy COAs that were wargamed, to include – Critical events. Possible enemy actions and reactions. Modifications to the COAs. Strengths and weaknesses. Results of the wargame. Assumptions Wargaming technique used Time permitting, the staff delivers a briefing to ensure everyone understands the results of the wargame. This briefing is normally not given to the commander. The staff uses it for review and ensures that all relevant points of the wargame are captured for presentation to the commander (chief of staff/executive officer or deputy/assistant commander) in the COA decision briefing. In a collaborative environment, the briefing may include selected subordinate staffs. A wargame briefing format includes the following:

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