Searching for Bin Laden: The Use of Intelligence in the War on Terror or How NOT to Spend the Taxpayers Treasure Robert David Steele (Vivas) CEO, OSS.Net, Inc. World Affairs Council of Kentucky & Southern Indiana Global Economic Forum 14 June 2006

This Briefing is Online This briefing is online, at: It should also be on your website locally. Planned words are visible in Notes format. Other key references online include:

Were in a Six-Front 100-Year War of Our Own Making. America is losing/has lost the moral high ground.

Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Debt Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Revenue Security Soc. Sec. Water For each Al Qaeda $1, US Spends $500K. Badly. We can do this forever. Any Questions?

Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Debt Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Revenue Security Soc. Sec. Water Big Dogs Brazil China India Indonesia Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards In Grand Strategy terms, Al Qaeda shrinks to zip.

Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Debt Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Revenue Security Soc. Sec. Water Can't Fix Stupid! Big Dogs Brazil China India Indonesia Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards From left : Larry the Cable Guy, Bill Engvall, Jeff Foxworthy and Ron White.Larry the Cable GuyBill EngvallJeff FoxworthyRon White

Plan for the Brief Focused only on National Security Budget Initial Focus on $60B/Year Spent by IC Then Focus on $600B/Year Spent by DoD Review Books on Threats and Strategy Discuss Needed Reforms in America Conclude with Hope for the Future

National Security Writ Small Department of Defense - $600B/Year –Buys heavy metal military ill-suited to reality Department of State – –Buys Embassy fortresses and little else Department of Justice – –Buys heavy-handed ill-focused FBI & suits Department of Homeland Security – –Buys ill-directed hand-outs and little security

National Security Writ Large Nurture and use all sources of power Educated and engaged citizenry Competent intelligence –Universal coverage (all countries & topics) –24/7 (real time versus one-year studies) –All languages Morally sound diplomacy not ideological Morally sound capitalism not predatory Balance defense (four threat types) Coherent homeland security (engaged citizenry) Balanced budget, dont import poverty, export jobs

DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *31 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO Global Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding

50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist Global Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination

Threat #1: Poverty 95% Threat #2: Infectious Disease 99% Threat #3: Environmental Degradation90% Threat #4: Inter-State Conflict 75% Threat #5 Civil War 80% Threat #6: Genocide95% Threat #7: Other Large-Scale Atrocities 95% Threat #8: Nuclear, bio-chemical weapons 75% Threat #9: Terrorism 80% Threat #10: Transnational organized crime 80% Average Importance of OSINT 86% Threats vs. Sources

HUMINTSIGINTIMINTMASINT ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE 5% of cost80% of value 95% of cost20% of value Secret Intelligence Misses 80% of the Relevant Information!

Baseball Analogy Harnessing the Power of the Crowd OSINT HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT

ADDNI/OS & OSS CEO ADDNI/OS View of OSINTOSS CEO View of OSINT OSINT HumintSigint MasintImint FI Humint SigintImint Masint Osint OSINT is both a supporting discipline, and an all-source discipline.

New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

Focus of Global Effort Strategic Forecasting 10% Need, 40% Cost Primary Research & Experts on Demand 20% Need, 30% Cost Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now) 30% Need, 20% Cost Daily/Weekly Reports 40% Need, 10% Cost Shared Among Tribes Partial Sharing Tribal Secret Top Secret

OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Creating the World Brain: Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams

Real vs. False Budget Source:

Policy-Intelligence Failure: Unbalanced Instruments of Power Too much of: Military heavy metal Secret satellites Not enough of: Humans on ground Human expert analysis Technical processing State & local intelligence Public health, water, etc. The real budget is the real policy. Citizens must vote and provide constant oversight if the taxpayer dollar is to be spent wisely.

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman Conflict Facts for LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC

Ethnic Fault Lines Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

Water & War Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Hyper-Arid Sub-Humid Arid Semi-Arid Water Pollution

Global Threats to Local Survival *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries

Taxpayer Dollars Focused on Just 10% of the Threat

Presidential Trade-Offs $100 million will buy: 1 Small Navy Platform or Ground Unit or 1,000 Potential George Kennans or 10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or 1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water or One day of war over water (or oil)

$1 T/Yr Not Being Leveraged Between interest on the debt, unnecessary military systems, unnecessary secret satellites, and a wide variety of subsidies and tax loopholes, we waste $500B/Year. For lack of good economic intelligence and counterintelligence, and ethics at the top, we forego $500B a year in corporate tax contributions to revenue, import-export pricing and insurance fraud, and lost revenues from bandwidth and federally-controlled properties.

Policy-Intelligence Failure Public is Neither Engaged Nor Informed Why This Matters Homeland security--A Nations best defense is an educated citizenry. (Thomas Jefferson) Prosperity--the financial value of ethics, trust, strategic culture Global security--the long-term value of public intelligence to multi-cultural policy initiatives, the best pre-emption is moral. World War III Players Bacteria Nations GangsCitizens Inc.

Pelton on Ground Truth Most government and media sources have not actually had eyes on target and boots in the local mud You dont have to travel to these places to have them affect home front security We simply are not grasping essential ground truths

Shawcross on Endless Conflict Peace operations are as complex and difficult as war operations Humanitarian assistance can create black markets and sustain a conflict Good will without strength makes things worse

Kaplan on Frontier of Anarchy History, geography, and traveling third class are vital to true understanding We are engaged in "a protracted struggle between ourselves and the demons of crime, population pressure, environmental degradation, disease, and culture conflict."

Heidenrich on Genocide 18 genocides going on today--scores more over time Genocide can be forecast and can be prevented Indifference is murder Global force needed

Klare on Resource Wars Energy, Water, Timber, and Minerals will be at the heart of future war Ethnic conflict and great power disconnects will compound the challenge In this light, corporations are now belligerents and must be treated as such

de Villiers on Water It is the average person, not the corporation, that does the most damage Pollution, dams, irrigation, and acquifer mining are all destroying our environment We need a national and global water conservation and replenishment strategy.

Helvarg on Oceans Oceans more important than Amazon, should be protected Western economic interests are treating oceans as private mines and private cesspools Information available from NOAA and UN is not reaching public domain and could help citizen action

Thornton on Industrialized Poison Need new paradigm for controlling bio-chemical threats to society, one focused on probability of risk instead of permission to kill pending proven risk Good science is code for value-free policy that risks citizens long-term health for short-term corporate profit

Garrett on Globalized Disease Health of our Nation depends on health of other nations Insurance and doctors have helped kill public health (prevention) in favor of hospitals and antibiotics We have created resistant forms of disease and may not be able to contain epidemics

Gray on Modern Strategy Technology is not a substitute for strategy War is about getting your way, not about combat Time matters--use or lose Over time strategic culture is more important than arms or money.

Brzezinski on Grand Strategy Europe, Russia, and Eurasian stans are the hearth of 21st century opportunity and threat Core new players are Turkey and Indonesia Iran is more stable, and China less of a threat, that conventional wisdom says Geopolitics more important than technology

Kupchan on Failure of Empire Strategic cultures resist incoming information and suffer from adjustment failure Foreign internal instability merits rapid intervention with strong economic incentives Failure to intervene early will lead to emergence of aggressors that are difficult to defeat once out of the box.

Shultz et al on Complexity Most policymakers do not fully realize the dynamics of the world we live in. (Graham Fuller) History and culture are vital to security policy Non-military operations are as important as military operations at all times

Cimbala on Friction Friction is real and is destroying our ability to match ends with means We dont have a strategy; we dont try to understand the strategies of others; we do not have unity of effort across the diplomatic-defense- justice continuum

Revolutions Not Technical Concepts, not technology, are revolutionary Best revolutions are actually incremental and simple Technology is not a substitute for strategy Current & planned arsenal distantly related to real needs

OHanlon on Aid Spending We spend half as much on aid as do most of the other developed countries Foreign aid in its current form is not preventing conflicts Best investment world-wide is in education of women, this cascades across issue areas

Oakley on Police Peace Operations Failed states present us with a global problem that requires an international law enforcement reserve UN police often cannot read or drive a car and do not have doctrine Constabulary forces are different from small war forces

Bowden on Manhunts Timing is everything--we let the thugs amass billions before we go after them We are weak in tactical intelligence against non- traditional (e.g. individual) targets, especially in cities It can be done--but is almost impossible to do well if host state is in chaos

Warfare in the Third World Subjective factors including pain threshhold determinant Training absorption much more important that arms supplies Third World combat is both unconventional and never ending…

Third World War Spreading insecurity is directly related to protracted conflict among societal groups Incompetent interventions make matters much worse Violence can be predicted Once begun, the violent will not listen to reason...

Clark on Modern War White House does not listen to early warning Army doesnt do mountains, tries not to use Apaches etc. Air Force doesnt do strategic mobility, needs 24 hours to redirect TACAIR Technology loses to weather, lacks intelligence

Smart Holistic Strategy End state must be legitimate governments everywhere Ultimate investment is educational, both at home and abroad Must do inter-agency holistic planning, apply all the instruments of national power all the time

The Tunnels of Cu Chi Never underestimate the enemy

52 PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation MILITARY ACHILLES HEELS Off-base power, down-links, antennas ECONOMIC BLAHS No Fly No Spend No Hire DATA Corruption Public Health Home FrontWeaknesses 10 bombs in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela will drive price of oil to $200 a barrel Suicide changes everything … Suicidal plague carriers…. Etc.

New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need better balance 45% 20% 20% 15% 248B vs. 550B 110B vs 20B 110B vs. 20B 82B vs. 36B CINCWARCINCSOLICCINCPEACECINCHOME Strategic NBCSmall WarsState/USIAIntelligence Big War(s)ConstabularyPeace CorpsBorder Patrol Ground TruthEconomic AidPort Security 1iii Electronic Reserve Environment Public HealthPeace Navy

Modern Presidential Leadership PresidentCongressJudiciary Chief of Staff Director-General for National Policy Director-General for Global Strategy Director-General for National Intelligence Director-General for National Research Director of Classified Intelligence (DCI) Chairman, National Intelligence Council Director, Global Knowledge Foundation

Modern Strategic Governance Director General Global Strategy Deputy Director Global Strategy Deputy Director Response Management Associate Directors Strategic Council Leadership Retreats Global Reserve Special Projects Associate Directors Response Center Public Liaison Civilian Reserve Non-State Actors

Governance Reform Coalition Cabinet Balanced Open Budget Quality Education Public Health Ethics 7th Generation Issues –Water –Energy –Information/Education

Electoral Reform Voting on week-ends League of Women Voters & Debates Cabinet Choices in Advance & in Debates Instant Run-Off End Gerrymandering End Corporate Funding

Lets Get Our Priorities Straight! Third, have a strategy to empower the poor, create wealth, and sustain peace & Earth. First, be strong at home. Second, be America the Good abroad.

A Strong America Through Common Sense We must honor our values and stop supporting dictators. We must serve the interests of the people rather than corporations. We must have balanced national security capabilities. We must be fiscally sound.

Questions? Will speak for sushi. Tell others.