1. ® Welcome to the Real World: Force Structure Trade-Offs Robert David Steele Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….

2. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.2 Terms of Reference I am constantly being asked for a bottom-line defense number. I don't know of any logical way to arrive at such a figure without analyzing the threat; without determining what changes in our strategy should be made in light of the changes in the threat; and then determining what force structure and weapons programs we need to carry out this revised strategy. Senator Sam Nunn

3. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.3 Conflict Specifics for 1995-2000 HIC Levels Off LIC Business is Good Internal Political & Ethnic Violence Goes Through the Roof High-Intensity ConflictLow-Intensity ConflictInternal War Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

4. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.4 Conflict Facts for 2000 26 LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

5. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.5 Ethnic Fault Lines 2000 43 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

6. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.6 Water & War Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Hyper-Arid Sub-Humid Arid Semi-Arid Water Pollution 1 2 3 4 5 6

7. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.7 Collateral Specifics for 2000 Complex Emergencies 29 Countries Refugees/Displaced 67 Countries Food Security 27 Countries Child Soldiers 42 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Peacekeeping Forces 18 UN, 20 Other Landmines 62 Countries Torture Common 94 Countries Corruption Common 78 Countries Censorship Very High 63 Countries *State of the World Atlas (1997), all others from PIOOM Map

8. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.8

9. ® 9 1. Break-Out2. Black Death3. Barricade (Good or Bad)

10. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.10 Four Threat Types PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING CYBER - STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEO - STEALTH, MASS TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR CULTURAL WAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (MIC / HIC) LOW TECH BRUTES (LIC) HIGH TECH SEERS (C3I WAR) LOW TECH SEERS (JIHAD) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY TERRORISM ECONOMIC WAR

11. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.11 HIC/MRC STRATEGIC NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL MILITARY WAR SOLIC/LEA UNCONVENTIONAL LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT AND GANG WARFARE IO/ECON INFORMATION WAR/ CRIME & ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE MINDWAR RELIGIOUS, POLITICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES PROLIFERATION/ JIHAD MIGRATION/ GREENPEACE TERRORISM/ GLOBAL CRIME INFOWAR/ ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE Challenges

12. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.12 Redefining Global Security Security Council Resolution 751 of 24 April 1992 magnitude of human suffering (Somalia) constitutes threat to peace and security This is a significant move away from previous UN standard, generally involving a cross-border dispute between 2 or more states.

13. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.13 Strategy Fundamentals People matter more than technology. Security strategy is holistic--must manage diplomacy, economics, culture, psychology, information and military in harmony. War proper is not just military force. Power without purpose is waste. Time is priceless. Use it or lose it! Trinity is violence, chance, and rationality. Strategic culture matters. Asymmetric threats have co-equal standing with symmetric threats.

14. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.14 New Strategic Focus 1 3 2 Was # Oops. We all forgot Homeland Defense 0

15. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.15 PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation MILITARY ACHILLES HEELS Off-base power, down-links, antennas ECONOMIC BLAHS No Fly No Spend No Hire DATA Corruption Public Health

16. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.16 Individual as Threat and Target State as Threat and Target Defense Against Weapons Systems Over There Defense of Infrastructure Here at Home Offense Against Fixed Ground Offense Against Distributed Groups OLD NEW PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR STATE IS PRIMARY ACTOR

17. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.17 REDEFINING NATIONAL SECURITY LONG TIME SHORT SHORT TIME WAR PEACE THEREHERE INFORMATION WARFARE INFORMATION PEACEKEEPING EDUCATION INTELLIGENCE ELECTRONIC SECURITY & COUNTERINTELLIGENCE Crime & Terrorism Nation Building & Public Diplomacy

18. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.18 We Still Need Conventional Forces We still need conventional forces and especially a 450-ship Navy: 1) to provide sea-based fires, intelligence, logistics, and medical 2) to provide the amphibious flanking option 3) to hold down a second front and protect sea lanes

19. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.19 450-Ship Navy

20. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.20 HIC/MRC 1/3 leap forward* 1/3 anti-old technologies 1/3 focus on people SOLIC/LEA 1/3 sensing technology* 1/3 peace/civil technology 1/3 focus on people IO/ECON 1/3 electronic security* 1/3 counterintelligence 1/3 economic intelligence MINDWAR 1/3 historical thinking 1/3 cultural thinking 1/3 strategic thinking RMA in Context Gets Failing Grade *RMA today hits only 3 of 12 strategic investment needs.

21. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.21 Net Assessment Nature of War is Fundamentally Changed RMA/Net Assessments Fall Woefully Short Corporations & NGOs are allies/belligerents Civil-Military-Reserve Triad Must Change Transformation through Thinking People Force Protection begins with Day-to-Day Common Cause--Peace Corps, USIA, State

22. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.22 Means - Ends Disconnect

23. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.23 Presidential Trade-Offs $100 million will buy: 1 Big Platform (Air or Sea) or 1,000 Potential George Kennans or 10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or 1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water

24. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.24 Minimalist Budget Fixes Program 50 Modifications Kill 2+/JV 2010 (-5.0) Kill Missile Defense (-3.0) Kill new attack sub (-2.0) Kill Fancy TacAir (-5.0) Kill CVN & DD 21 (-5.0) Build 450-ship Navy (+5) Build the iii in 1+iii (+5) TOTAL: -10B/Year Net Program 150 Increases Digital Marshall Plan (+2) DGNI & GKF (+2) State Operations (+1) AIDx2 Water Focus (+2) Peace Corps x5 (+1) USIA + Culture (+1) NGO Subsidies (+1) TOTAL: +10B/Year

25. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.25 HIC/MRC 60% of the DoD Budget 75% Active/25% Reserve 75% USG/25% Private SOLIC/LEA 20% of the DoD Budget 50% Active 50% Reserve 50% USG/50% Private IO/ECON 10% of the DoD Budget 50% Active/50% Reserve 25% USG/75% Private MINDWAR 10% of the DoD Budget 25% Active/75% Reserve 50% USG/50% Private Transformative Spending

26. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.26 CORE FORCE Strategists Advise Policy Constabulary Stabilize Failed States Domestic Threats Fires, Riots, Epidemics Citizen Education Bond Nation through Service Force on Force Deliberate Violence Electronic Security Set Standards, Stand Watch Small Wars Random Violence Ground Truth Observe with Warriors Eyes New Force Structure Model

27. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.27 New Strategy: 1 + iii CINCWARCINCSOLICCINCPEACECINCHOME Strategic NBCSmall WarsState/USIAHome Guard Big War(s)ConstabularyPeace CorpsBorder Patrol Ground TruthEconomic AidPort Security 1iii Electronic Reserve Minutemen

28. ® Copyright © OSS Inc. 2001.28 Sub-Strategies in Support Global intelligence burden-sharing strategy Global interoperability strategy 1+iii force structure acquisition strategy Preventive diplomacy strategy, fully funded Home front strategy leveraging Guard Ad hoc coalition strategy with strong Reserve Corporations/NGOs as allies and belligerents

29. ® Terrorism is now rampant across America Millions of dispossessed across 67 countries Plagues and epidemics in 59 countries Starvation in 27 countries Open season given to crime & narcotics So, to summarize the situation…. What is the threat? What is our strategy? What structure is needed? How do we fund it?

30. ® Welcome to the Real World: Force Structure Trade-Offs Robert David Steele There is no right answer…. But it helps to understand reality.